Of all the players on the Portland Trail Blazers roster, none has a greater gap between potential and production as Robert Williams III. Acquired in 2023 as part of a trade sending Jrue Holiday to the Boston Celtics, Williams was a young, effective, motor-intense center with plenty of defensive chops and a great reputation. Since October 1st, 2023, the 6’9 big has played exactly 26 games for Portland, 470 total minutes.
With an expiring contract in tow, Williams’ status with the Blazers has become
a semi-hot topic in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag this summer. This question is somewhat representative, if more on the optimistic side of the scale.
Dave,
Call me a dreamer but I still believe in Time Lord. I was excited when we got him. I remember telling my friends it was a championship move. It hasn’t turned out that way yet but I want to lean into the yet. I love his defense. I don’t think he hurts the team on offense any more than Clingan does. I want this to work. I’m feeling like I’m on an island tho. Can you give me your best idea of whether RW3 will help the Blazers at all. Could this be his breakout year finally? Do you see us trying to get him to a longer contract? It’s hard when your favorite player isn’t playing so make me feel better if you can.
Vin
I have to remind myself every day that Williams is only 27, almost 28 years old. Because of his injury history (and maybe his association with Boston) he feels Jrue Holiday age to me already. That’s not even close to true. If his body cooperates he has 3-4 years, minimum, of full-power play left in him.
The body thing is the issue, though, right?
Williams didn’t play a full schedule during his rookie season. He was adjusting to the league. Let’s skip his 32 games served in 2018-19 and even the 29 the season after. Beginning in 2020-21, when he became a regular player, he missed several games due to various injuries, appearing in 52 contests. His high-water mark came in 2021-22 when he played 61. After that his totals were 35, 6, and 20.
Put another way, Williams missed 21 and 30 games in his two best seasons. Yet in those same two injury-influenced years, he played as many games as he has in the whole rest of his career. His minutes during those two seasons account for almost 60% of his total regular-season time on an NBA floor. That’s not just an injury problem. That’s a foundation.
That’s why, at this point, I have zero expectations for Robert Williams III. I say that liking his game (almost) as much as you do, acknowledging that his style of play and leadership are both good for the team. The team can’t depend on his play because, at this point, it doesn’t exist in a bankable, meaningful way.
I would love it if Williams resurged this year and gave Portland 50-60 games. Even if he does, I don’t believe he’s a good contractual risk unless that contract borders on insignificant. I do believe he has a potential future as a coach in this league and I’d be delighted if his association with the Blazers brought the two in contact when he is ready to explore those options.
Another reason I say this is that Portland’s archetype for big men has changed. Donovan Clingan cannot play like Robert Williams does. Yang Hansen is another player altogether. At least he has size in common with Clingan. He and Williams are completely different. Nor can Williams give the Blazers the same perimeter defense and shooting at power forward that Toumani Camara and Jerami Grant do, at least in theory. Williams is an odd man out, despite being a good player.
That’s why I expect the Blazers to either move Williams or simply let his contract expire at the end of the season. Sorry to dash your hopes, but I just don’t see the needle getting threaded for a long-term association between the team and the talented center.
How about you all? Does anybody else have serious hopes for Williams at this point? If so, please share them in the comment section!
Thanks for the question too! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
