The grass is turning green, the birds are chirping, and sunset is after seven. That only means one thing.
The NCAA tournament is upon us.
After an undefeated non-conference schedule followed by a somewhat bumpy conference season, Iowa State enters the NCAA tournament as a 2-seed as they face the 15-seeded Tennessee State Tigers from the Ohio Valley Conference. While a conference tournament championship is always a difficult feat, the Tigers have a very tall task ahead of them. Iowa State is currently
ranked 6th overall in the country on KenPom, but you will have to scroll past over half of the page to find the Tigers at 187th out of 365.
Iowa State is looking hot right now
At the half on senior night, Iowa State was down by four to an Arizona State squad that had been struggling all year. The Cyclones had also lost three of their last four and had two of their worst looking games against Texas Tech and Arizona. The team looked lost, sluggish, and uncoordinated. This was not the time to be in the dumps and a turnaround had to be swift.
Whatever occurred in the locker room during that intermission needs to be bottled and kept on the sideline with the same spirit of “Michael’s secret stuff” from Space Jam.
Iowa State won the second half by 25 points, and then had some of the best play I have seen all year in Kansas City. The Cyclones beat the same Sun Devils by a school-record 49 points, and went to business the next day with an eighteen point victory over the same Texas Tech squad who became the only team to beat Iowa State in Ames just two weeks prior. Iowa State dropped their semi-final bout against the eventual champion Arizona Wildcats, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. That crowd in Kansas City saw some of the best college basketball in recent memory as both teams fired haymakers for 40 minutes. Both teams were stuck in automatic on the final minutes as the final eleven combined attempts all connected for some of the most electric basketball you can ever witness.
Two players I want to specifically highlight from that Arizona game are Milan Momcilovic and Kilian Toure.
Momcilovic has received praise throughout the season, and it has certainly been justified. But this version of Momcilovic was poetry coming to life. He finished the day 8-14 from deep which included an electric 9-0 run in the final 30 seconds of the first half. In recent games, Momcilovic has been receiving more and more pressure from the opposing defense due to his skill, and Iowa State has struggled to give him open shots. Against one of the best three-point defenses in the conference, Iowa State found open opportunities for Momcilovic, and he took his green light to full effect.
Killyan Toure had been struggling to get buckets to fall in recent games which led to teams leaving plenty of space on the perimeter and toughly challenging his inevitable drives to the basket. That ability to keep space from him allowed defenses to clog the lane and make it difficult for Jefferson or the centers to find good looks down low. Against Arizona, Toure lit up the stat sheet with 5-9 shooting from the floor and 2-3 from deep to total 12 points. If he is a legitimate offensive threat, then I don’t know how anyone stops this offensive train.
Tennessee State is looking to run
The Tigers are one of the fastest teams in the country, ranking 45th overall in tempo and leading the OVC with 80.5 points per game. While their defense was in the middle of the pack, they still led the OVC in total margin, averaging 7.3 more points per game. This high energy offense is led by a one-two punch of seniors Aaron Nkrumah and Travis Harper II. Both are averaging more than 17 points per game and have individually reached 30 in a single game on separate occasions.
Similar to the Cyclones, Tennessee State is looking to pressure their opponents into turnovers. They led the OVC with 14.7 turnovers forced per game and 9.38 steals per game. That defense is still their weak spot, as KenPom currently ranks their defense 212th while their offense is 173rd. Once a team gets their shot up, Tennessee State is only ordinary in their allowed field goal percentage.
Iowa State currently opens as a 24.5 point favorite, but there have already been some good upsets and unexpectedly close encounters as that is still the best part of the tournament. How does Iowa State avoid the stress of being the headline upset of the tournament?
- Bully with size. Of players that have averaged at least 19 minutes a game, the tallest player for the Tigers is just 6’ 8”. Iowa State should be able to win every height matchup on the floor, so rebounding and points in the paint need to be strongly in Iowa State’s favor.
- Get everyone involved. This is not a game that Iowa State needs to solely rely on the big three of Lipsey, Jefferson, and Momcilovic. If everyone feels good about the looks they are getting, that can put them in a much better position to step up when the intensity ramps up very soon.
- Bet the over. This game may include a good amount of turnovers into breakaway opportunities, especially with Tennessee State unlikely to have experienced the defensive prowess of Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure. The current line is 148.5. I think that can get smashed.
Prediction: ISU 91 – TSU 65
