Back in February, ZiPS projections were posted, and they did not have a single Red Sox player reaching the 20 home run threshold. Twitter/X got a hold of this and ran with it, becoming an easy talking point for those who felt that Craig Breslow’s offseason effort to fix the power in the lineup fell short (most of us).
After 49 games, 30% of the season, here is how the Red Sox regulars are pacing for home runs:
- Willson Contreras – 33
- Jarren Duran – 20
- Wilyer Abreu – 20
- Ceddanne Rafaela – 13
- Trevor Story – 10
- Marcelo Mayer – 7
- Carlos Narvaez – 7
Everyone else on the team has one home run or fewer thus far, including Caleb Durbin, Roman
Anthony, and Masataka Yoshida. Feel free to do that math yourself.
It probably should have been obvious at the time that ZiPS was low on Contreras, considering they had him at a projected 118 games played, tracking more like a catcher than a first baseman, but otherwise, they’ve been right on. That being said, it’s Memorial Day Weekend, so things should start heating up at Fenway, right about nowish. Looking at Statcast’s Park Factors for 2026, Fenway has played as the 5th most difficult park to hit in overall, and the #1 most difficult park to hit a home run at, and it’s actually not even close.
If you use the three years prior (2023-2025), Fenway is the second-most friendly park overall, and tops in terms of doubles, but seventh-most difficult for homers.
I’ll say that Contreras and Abreu reach the 20 home run threshold, and that’s it. If this Sox team makes a wild card run over the next two months in this pathetic American League (outlined here, and here, on Over the Monster over the last two days), it should be pretty clear that a power bat is what the team will need to add at the deadline, and preferably well before the deadline.
Enjoy the long weekend, and be good to each other.
