After the Ohio State football team’s disappointing loss ot Miami in the College Football Playoff, did you put away all of yoru scarlet and gray gear for a therapist-mandated period of mourning? If so, it’s time to haul that stuff out of the closet, because, believe it or not, the OSU men’s basketball team kicks off the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament in just a few hours, and — in other potentially shocking news — they are favored to win!
If the thought of watching meaningful Buckeye men’s basketball
in March has reignited a fire inside of you that had been dormant since the Thad Matta era, have no fear, there is still time to get caught up on everything you need to know to root on this year’s squad.
I am going to break down the very basics of what you need to know about this team. It won’t make you an expert, but when you tun in to watch the No. 8 Buckeyes take on the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS, you will at least be able to carry on a conversation about the team with your fellow Ohio State fans.
The record
Head coach Jake Diebler’s team finished the regular season 20-11 and did not lose back-to-back games until they fell to then-No. 15 Michigan State, 66-60, on Feb. 22 and then got embarrassed by Iowa three days later, in a game that was not as close as its 74-57 would indicate.
However, since then, the Buckeyes have been playing with a newfound crispness and precision that has eluded them in recent years. In the month of March, they are 4-1 (including two games in the Big Ten Tournament). That span has covered wins over then-No. 8 Purdue, Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa, and a nail-biting 71-67 loss to then-No. 3 Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.
Coming into the tournament, the Buckeyes are 5-11 in Quad-1 games, holding victories over Northwestern, UCLA, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Iowa. Additionally, four of their losses were by two or fewer possesions, and seven were by single digits.
In Quad-2 games, Ohio State is 7-1, with the only lose coming on a buzzer-beating three-pointer to Pitt (for the second year in a row), 67-66. In Quad-2, 3, and 4 games, OSU is 16-1. So, what this tells you is that they not only do the Buckeyes beat the teams that they should beat, but they also can compete with just about any team in the country.
While the last four seasons of Buckeye basketball have been pretty tumultuous, OSU has played exceptionally well in March over that span. Following their last NCAA Tournament appearance in 2022, the Buckeye men are 12-7 in the month of March, a trend that has bridged the tenures of both Chris Holtmann and Diebler. So, you combine that with the fact that they have played well this year against quality competition, and anything can hapen.
The stats
This year’s Buckeyes are a team that scores a decent amount of points, but also gives them up as well. On the year, they ranked 85th nationally out of 365 Division I teams in points per game at 79.8, but they are also just a bit north of average in terms of points allowed, giving up 72.8 each time out; this puts them at 146th nationally.
In line with that, the Buckeyes shoot the ball pretty well from the field. Their 49.3% shooting percentage is good for third best in the Big Ten and 18th nationally. They aren’t as strong from deep, but they aren’t awful either. Thus far this year, OSU is shooting 36.03% from distance, which puts them at fourth in the B1G and 64th in the country.
A relatively small team, the Buckeyes don’t rebound particularly well, pulling down 33.2 boards per game (23.9 defensively, 9.3 offensively). That total slots them in at 11th in the conference and 283th nationally. They don’t generate a lot of steals (4.9 per game) or blocks (2.4), but they are just barely on the positive side of the turnover margin at 0.2.
The analytics
According to Ken Pomery, Ohio State is 26th in the country in his adjusted efficiency margin. However, they are 16th on offense, and all the way down at 54th on defense. Evan Miya’s model has the Buckeyes as the No. 22 team in the country, with the 12th-best offensive efficiency and the 50th-best defensive efficiency.
While there is a little daylight between the two analytics systems, they are in the same ballpark, so I think it’s safe to assume that when it comes to the data thus far, that they are accurate.
For context’s sake, TCU is 43rd according to KenPom and 46th in Evan Miya’s ratings, and remember what I said about the Buckeyes not losing to teams they should beat.
The players
This Buckeye team is built upon and around the program’s all-time leading scorer, senior guard Bruce Thornton. Despite his 2,154 career points being more than any other men’s basketball player to ever don the scarlet and gray, today will mark the four-time captain’s first game in the Big Dance.
Whatever the Buckeyes are able to accomplish in the tournament will likely hinge on Thornton. His 20.2 points per game and 3.9 assists both lead the team, while his 5.1 rebounds per outting are second. A three-time All-Big Ten selection, Bruce has always been clutch, but he has stepped up down the stretch. He had his worst shooting game of the season in the February loss to Iowa, scoring 10 points on 3-of-8 shooting.
However, since then, he has averaged 21.4 points per game, including two games against top-10 opponents and the return match against the Hawkeyes. Thornton appears to be rounding into peak postseason form.
While he might not have the accolades of a Lucas, Jackson, Turner, or Oden, Thornton will go down as one of the best Buckeyes in basketball history. He is the steadying force that has kept this program from going completely off the rails during its most trying period in the past quarter-century. He is as smart as he is skilled, he can score at all three levels, and when times get tough, he is the player you want with the ball in his hands.
Outside of Thornton, the Buckeyes are bouyed by three players averaging double figures, and a fourth right on the cusp.
Sophomore John Mobley Jr. is Ohio State’s best three-point shooter, converting on 41.8% of his shots from behind the arc. The guard is second on the team in scoring, averaging 15.7 ppg, and also contributes 2.7 assists per game, second on the team only to Thornton. Mobley is the of shooter who can get hot very quickly. If he is left alone in space, he is liable to drain a triple from anywhere on the floor. Like many shooters, he can be streak at times, but when he is on… he is on!
The team’s leading rebounder is junior Devin Royal, grabbing 5.7 boards per game, while also scoring 13.7 each time out. While not the exact same player, he reminds me at times of fellow Pickerington Tiger Jae’sean Tate. He is a physical player who thrives when attacking the basket. A former Mr. Ohio Basketball, he is very skilled, but he is also tencious and can put up points in bunches.
Santa Clara transfer Christoph Tilley is also turning in double-digits, averaging 11.0 ppg. The 7-foot center has been a steady presence in the paint for OSU this season. While he is only averaging 4.7 rebounds and 0.5 blocks per game, Tilley’s ability to stretch the floor has been effective for the Buckeyes.
Rounding out the team’s top-5 leading scorers in freshman forward Amare Bynum who has come on strong late in the season. Averaging 9.7 points on the campaign, he has played more than 34 minutes in each of the last three games, seemingly cementing himself as a significant contributor in Diebler’s rotation. Bynum has grown into his role as a player who can use his speed and aggressiveness to put pressure on opposing defenses.
It is almost like he is still so young that he is just figuring out how to translate his gifts into the collegiate level. However, if the last five games are any indication, he might just be figuring it out at the perfect time.
The odds
The Buckeyes enter their First Round matchup with TCU as 2.5-point favorites, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook.The oddsmakers are projecting a total points line of 146.5, meaning that they anticipate the Buckeyes to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 to 72. Not a huge margin of victory, but I would much rather be laying points than taking points.
