The Pittsburgh Pirates currently sit 6.5 games back from the third Wild Card spot in the postseason, and are running out of time to steer the ship towards the playoffs. There’s still some time to get back on track, but there are three factors that will leave the Pirates on the outside looking in.
Pitching day-to-day is shaky
At the beginning of the season, the strength of the Pirates was supposed to be the starting pitching rotation. However, at this point in the season the rotation has lost its reputation and has turned into
a largely average unit. Paul Skenes this late in the year is just not dependable. He has not looked like himself all year, but it has become especially clear as of late that he is not performing at his best. Mitch Keller has been shut down for the rest of the season with an injury, so Carmen Mlodzinski has stepped back into his role as a starter. Even though Mlodzinski was solid to start the year, he clearly looks over it with the Pirates and has not been at his best since returning to the starting ranks.
Also — and this isn’t particularly Jared Jones’ fault — but the Pirates are still letting him play with the training wheels on. He has the potential to be the best pitcher on the team, but management is still keeping his outings incredibly limited. Pitching in the playoffs will not matter if the Pirates cannot first get to the playoffs.
The bullpen looks revamped, but it’s still a position group with a lot of question marks. In some of these close series down the stretch, they are not dependable enough from what we’ve seen to this point to put a lot of faith in. I do think the group has looked better, but I wouldn’t be willing to wager anything just yet given their track record.
The lineup lacks consistent punch down the stretch
The Pirates’ lineup that was completely transformed for the 2026 season, completely fell apart following the All-Star break. It’s almost like the week off was the worst possible thing for the red hot Buccos. The offense has been shutout five times since returning to action, and have scored two runs or less in seven contests in the second half of the season.
This is a lineup that had a lot of potential, but after taking their extended layoff it might be too late for them to crawl back into playoff contention if the offense continues to lack consistency. Esmerlyn Valdez has gone cold after his hot stretch. Ryan O’Hearn is back on the IL. Bryan Reynolds looks unrecognizable in his last 30 games. For some reason, Jared Triolo is still regularly in the lineup and Henry Davis is still a liability at the plate.
Out of all the things that can get the Pirates back into playoff contention, it could be this lineup. Luckily, Oneil Cruz is back and looking like a threat again, and Konnor Griffin will also be returning. Hopefully those pieces back can help the lineup find some consistency, but the team lacks a true offensive superstar at the moment. There is potential for players to grow into those roles, but that likely won’t happen between now and the end of the regular season.
No easy series left
Part of the Pirates’ problems all season long is that they have grossly underperformed against teams that they should beat easily. That has remained true in the second half of the year. They should have easily won their recent series against the Mets, Marlins and Reds. They should win the series against Detroit, but time will tell if they can seal that series victory.
Moving forward there are no series that the Pirates can take lightly. Following Detroit they have back to back series against playoff teams in the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. They then travel to St. Louis who they’ve struggled mightily against all year. They also have series against the Brewers and Cubs still left on the schedule as well. It’s not impossible for the Pirates to make it to the postseason if they can string together some wins, but their strength of schedule will allow very little to any breathing room. This team is going to have to play tighter than they have all year if they want to keep their dreams of Buctober alive.
