The Big Sky Conference is consistently one of the top two conferences in the FCS year in and year out. The league has had a representative in the national championship game in three of the last four seasons
and is almost always a lock to send at least four teams to the playoffs, if not five. Many of the squads that go often end up receiving first round byes to boot. Behind only the Missouri Valley, the Big Sky is the premier conference in the subdivision. This year, however, the league faces a rather unfamiliar scenario that could play out in about a month.
The usually-safe bet that the conference will send four teams to the postseason is actually in jeopardy right now and it could all come down to what happens on Friday night in Flagstaff. Right now there only three teams that appear as though they are sure things for the postseason (assuming no one has an epic collapse); Montana, Montana State and UC Davis. Beyond that, nothing is a guarantee right now and the one other squad that looks to be their best chance at getting four in… Northern Arizona… is likely one loss away from seeing that dream go up in flames.
NAU will host Idaho on Friday evening and it needs to handle business if it wants to keep its playoff hopes alive (probably). Coming in at 5-3 overall, the Lumberjacks have had a solid season up to this point. Two of their three defeats, though, have come in conference games. That means that almost surely they are out of the running for a Big Sky championship and auto bid into the tournament. It will have to be an at-large selection and, with one less of those on the table this year because of the Ivy League’s inclusion, the cut will be hard to make. Four losses might not get it done.
The Big Sky, of course, is wanting to Northern Arizona to make it. The more teams the league gets in, the more postseason games it gets to be a part of and the more revenue it will generate on the whole. Idaho is already well out of the running to get a spot at 3-5. Even if the Vandals were to win out, it’s very likely they would not be considered. If they were to pull it off against NAU, it would really put the hopes of that fourth team making it in danger.
Although no FCS betting lines have been released yet, the Lumberjacks will surely enter as favorites at home to beat the Vandals. That is not to say, though, that Idaho doesn’t have the weapons to get it done. A big part of their losing streak was when starting quarterback Joshua Wood was out with injury. Wood is back now and he led his team to a 45-6 win last week over Portland State. Wood is a difference maker and if NAU isn’t careful, he is more than capable of leading Idaho to an upset here.
If Northern Arizona cannot handle its business on Friday, the Big Sky may very well be looking down the barrel of a rare year in which it only gets three teams into the playoffs. And what makes it all even more intriguing is the fact that it will all go down before a national audience on ESPN2. Kickoff is slated for 10:30 PM (ET) and, while everyone else is out trick or treating, Idaho and Northern Arizona will be duking it out in a showdown that might greatly impact the playoff picture.
