There was a time when it felt like the Iowa football program should’ve just bought a small apartment complex somewhere not far from Raymond James Stadium so they didn’t have to deal with booking a couple hundred hotel rooms every December to house the staff and players while in pursuit of the Bloomin’ Onion trophy back when this game was still the Outback Bowl.
Tomorrow will mark Iowa’s 7th appearance in a Tampa bowl game since 2004 (so yeah, Iowa has appeared in 33% of these games in the last 21
years). The team with the next closest number of appearances is Florida with 4, with Wiscy, Penn State, and Georgia having played 3 times, and a whole host of schools have made the trip twice. This year’s opponent, the Vanderbilt Commodores, have never played in this bowl game and have only played in 7 bowl games total since 2004 (to Iowa’s 18 bowl games in that span). That being said, this Commodores team is no slouch.
Wednesday’s matchup will be the first meeting between Iowa and Vanderbilt in the 140-year history of Hawkeye football. The Commodores bring a 10-2 record and an explosive offense led by dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, while the Hawkeyes counter with one of the nation’s best defenses and a special teams unit featuring the country’s premier return specialist (how Kaden Wetjen was left off the All-American 1st Team at returner truly boggles the mind). This matchup represents a classic collision of styles — Vanderbilt’s high-octane attack against Iowa’s bend-but-don’t-break defense.
Offense
Iowa - 315.2 ypg (137.4 passing, 177.8 rushing), 28.9 ppg Vanderbilt - 468.5 ypg (282.6 passing, 185.9 rushing), 39.4 ppg
Iowa’s offense made significant strides under second-year coordinator Tim Lester, but the numbers remain pedestrian nationally. While the Hawkeyes finished the regular season ranked 121st in total offense and 131st in passing, they did manage to put up nearly 29 ppg (good for 58th) and if nothing else, played some pretty entertaining football, which was a welcome sight for these sore eyes. Mark Gronowski did not put up the kind of passing numbers that many expected based on his history at SDSU (62.5% completion, 1529 yards, 8 TDs to 6 INTs), but his rushing numbers (491 yards, 15 TDs) certainly made up for some of that and he provided steady leadership for this offense after getting past some early jitters. I mean, when was the last time Iowa’s QB was #2 on the team in rushing yards (though I’m not quite sure that’s a good thing)?
The Commodores enter tomorrow’s game with the nation’s 8th-ranked scoring offense (39.4 points per game). Diego Pavia orchestrates an attack that ranks 11th in total offense, mixing efficient passing (71.2% completion rate) with effective rushing (5.4 ypc). Pavia is the straw that stirs the drink, leading Vandy in, well, almost every offensive category that matters. Vanderbilt’s offense thrives in the red zone, converting 96.6% of trips inside the 20 into points, they’ve lost their leading receiver Eli Stowers to an opt-out, but their 2nd and 3rd options (Tre Richardson and Junior Sherril) both have more receiving touchdowns than Stowers and higher ypr averages. Needless to say, they are very good and Pavia is the kind of quarterback that can give any defense serious problems.
ADVANTAGE: Vanderbilt
The talent disparity is stark. Vanderbilt’s ability to score from anywhere on the field and their success in the red zone gives them a clear edge. Iowa will need to do what they did to Indiana and Oregon to have a shot in this game, control the clock and win the field position battle.
Defense
Iowa - 270.6 ypg allowed (158.2 passing, 112.4 rushing), 15.2 ppg allowed Vanderbilt - 355.8 ypg allowed (252.6 passing, 103.2 rushing), 21.9 ppg allowed
The Hawkeyes rank 8th nationally in total defense (7th in SP+, 14th in stop rate) and 6th in scoring defense, allowing just 15.2 points per game. Phil Parker’s unit excels against the pass (8th nationally at 158.2 yards allowed per game) and has been opportunistic with takeaways. Aaron Graves anchors a defensive line that’s generated consistent pressure, with Ethan Hurkett and Max Llewellyn having solid seasons off the edge, and the secondary led by emergent RS Sophmore Zach Lutmer, who excelled in the second half of the season. This is a veteran defense that had some big shoes to fill, especially at LB, and, early season struggles aside, they improved on last years performance without Jay Higgins (who notched his first two tackles in the NFL the other night) and Nick Jackson to anchor them.
Vanderbilt’s defense is respectable but vulnerable through the air, ranking 122nd nationally in pass defense at 252.6 yards allowed per game. However, the Commodores are stout against the run (17th nationally, 103.2 yards per game), which could force Iowa into uncomfortable passing situations. They struggle on third down, allowing opponents to convert 42.6% of attempts (105th nationally).
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
The Hawkeyes’ defensive excellence is their path to victory. If Iowa can force Pavia into mistakes and limit explosive plays, they’ll keep this competitive. Vanderbilt’s passing defense vulnerabilities will only matter if Lester can find a way to get Gronowski comfortable and in rhythm early.
Special Teams
Iowa - 43.2 ypp, 76.9% FGM, 26.9 ypkr, 29.2 ypprVanderbilt - 46.7 ypp, 91.7% FGM, 23.8 ypkr, 8.6 yppr
Kaden Wetjen is the nation’s best return specialist and a two-time Big Ten Return Specialist of the Year — the only player ever to win the award in consecutive seasons. He leads the nation with 965 combined kick return yards and has four return touchdowns this season. Drew Stevens ranks third in the Big Ten in field goals per game (1.89) and owns Iowa’s career record with 74 field goals. Given that this is, likely, the last time we’ll see Kaden put on an Iowa uniform, we will all be on the edge of our seats for every punt return, because we all want to see him leave as the all-time leader in return TDs.
Vanderbilt features capable kicker Brock Taylor but lacks the game-changing dimension Iowa possesses. The Commodores average 61.5 penalty yards per game compared to Iowa’s nation-leading 28.1, suggesting discipline could be a factor.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa
The special teams gap is enormous. Wetjen alone could swing field position dramatically, and LeVar Woods’ unit should dominate this phase in his last game as Iowa’s ST coordinator.
Numbers to Watch
2 – Diego Pavia wears the number that defines Vanderbilt’s season. The dual-threat quarterback has passed for 3,192 yards and 27 touchdowns while rushing for 826 yards and 9 more scores. His 71.2% completion rate and ability to extend plays with his legs make him the most dangerous player on the field. If Iowa can contain Pavia like they did with Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore and force him into a couple of mistakes, they have a pretty good shot to win this game.
11 – Mark Gronowski may not have set the world on fire, but he may very well have set the standard for what Iowa’s QBs will be under Tim Lester — competent, tough, and mobile (pocket-mobile at least). His 15 rushing touchdowns set an Iowa record for a quarterback, and his ability to move the chains on third down kept Iowa in every game they played. Against Vanderbilt’s vulnerable pass defense, Gronowski will need to find his rhythm early and outperform his season averages if Iowa hopes to keep pace.
18 – Drew Stevens has been automatic when it matters most. The senior kicker is 20-for-26 on field goals this season, including four makes from 50+ yards with a career-long 58-yarder. In a game likely decided by one score, Stevens’ reliability in the kicking game could be the difference.
21 – Sedrick Alexander provides Vanderbilt with a powerful complement to Pavia’s playmaking. The running back rushed for 115 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season finale against Tennessee, showing he can carry the load when needed. Iowa’s run defense will need to account for Alexander while also containing Pavia’s scrambling ability.
81 – DJ Vonnahme probably wasn’t anyone’s pick to be the next star TE at Iowa, but he had a very good second half and ended up leading the Hawkeyes in receiving yards and tied for the team lead in receiving TDs. He’s not TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant, but when was the last time a true freshman TE led Iowa in either of those categories? He has become one of Gronowski’s favorite targets and should have plenty of opportunities against Vandy’s pedestrian pass defense.
Lines
Point spread: Vanderbilt -4.5 Over/Under: 46.5
The spread reflects Vanderbilt’s offensive firepower advantage, though 4.5 points seems light given the Commodores average more than 10 points per game better than Iowa. The total of 46.5 anticipates Iowa’s defensive strength limiting Vanderbilt while the Hawkeyes struggle to score. Given that Iowa will be the best defense the Commodores have seen all year, the Sharps seem pretty sure that Iowa will be able to keep Vandy’s impressive offense in check.
Iowa went 7-3-1 against the spread this season, consistently playing tough in close games. Three of their four losses came by a combined 10 points to ranked opponents. Vanderbilt covered in 10 of 12 games, demonstrating their ability to exceed expectations.
This game may come down to turnovers and special teams. If Iowa forces 2-3 turnovers and Wetjen provides one explosive return, the Hawkeyes can steal this game despite being outmatched offensively. If Vanderbilt protects the ball and neutralizes Iowa’s return game, their offensive talent should prevail. Iowa needs to keep this ugly — long drives, ball control, field position. Vanderbilt wants a track meet. The team that imposes its will wins.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
