Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight rivals Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan will rematch TONIGHT (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 323.
Dvalishvili has
been so incredible this year that there’s an argument to be made that he could lose this fight yet still deserve “Fighter of the Year” honors. It’s almost hard to believe that “The Machine” entered 2025 without a single title defense to his name. He’s so established atop the sport now, it’s hard to argue anyone else as the greatest Bantamweight in UFC history.
Conversely, Yan has quietly rebuilt his career. It’s strange when one of the very best fighters alive suffers four losses in two years, but a combination of terrible decisions and iffy judging saw “No Mercy” fall far from champion status. Since then, Yan has beaten a trio of tough contenders, proving that the 32-year-old Russian is still a threat in this title picture.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Betting Odds
- Merab Dvalishvili victory: -480
- Merab Dvalishvili via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Merab Dvalishvili via submission: +750
- Merab Dvalishvili via decision: -195
- Petr Yan victory: +350
- Petr Yan via TKO/KO/DQ: +950
- Petr Yan via submission: +3500
- Petr Yan via decision: +600
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Dvalishvili Wins
Dvalishvili is “The Machine.” He does not stop. He forces his opponents into a relentless cycle of defense, forcing them to cover beneath a hail of punches, double legs and mat returns. He offers no chance to breathe, quickly sapping the will of even elite athletes.
We already saw Dvalishvili rinse-and-repeat Yan once. Right away, Dvalishvili was aggressive with hard, chopping low kicks and a truly endless amount of takedowns. More than perhaps any other fight, Dvalishvili didn’t particularly care if he succeeded on the shot. He was trying to fatigue and break Yan as much as he was put him to the floor, and the overwhelming amount of wrestling offense limited Yan’s ability to open up.
Has anything changed?
It’s hard to critique a fairly flawless performance. For Dvalishvili, the concern is that he’s worn out from his hectic fight schedule and difficult weight cuts, which could impact his ability to wrestle so constantly. If “The Machine” continues to fire on all cylinders, however, he’s already employed the perfect anti-Yan gameplan once and should attempt to do so again.
How Yan Wins
Yan is a Master of Sport in both boxing and mixed martial arts (MMA), and he really represents that rank better than most. Watching Yan masterfully blend together pocket boxing, clinch knees and elbows, and silky smooth trips and throws is a genuine pleasure. When Yan has settled into a fight and is operating at his highest level, he’s really a one-of-a-kind fighter.
The problem in the first fight is that Yan was never given the chance to settle into the fight. Dvalishvili was in his face before Yan could establish his range, and he was rendered reactive right away — a terrible place to be against Dvalishvili. Yan couldn’t build his offense or break the Dvalishvili cycle, and he was thoroughly dominated as a result.
If Yan is able to buy himself that time to find his distance, the fight will look entirely different.
How to do so? There are two real keys to success. First and foremost, Yan has to proactively attack more often and work to keep Dvalishvili away. Hard linear shots like the body jab and front snap kick will prevent Dvalishvili from pressing by interrupting his advance. Those strikes can act as a barrier, forcing Dvalishvili to work harder and take more time to get his wrestling going.
Earning Dvalishvili’s respect is the other mandatory half of Yan’s gameplan. Dvalishvili fights with no fear of fatigue, but he has been hurt before and adjusts as a result. Yan has to land with venom in the first round, even if that means committing to punches and knees before he feels comfortable doing so. It’s better to risk getting countered on a big miss then just allow Dvalishvili to get rolling, because once that happens, the fight is probably over.
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Prediction
Yan is an outstanding fighter and certainly capable of a better performance than the first loss. As the far superior striker and an outstanding wrestler in his own right, Yan has the skill set to take apart Dvalishvili if he fights at his maximum capability.
Unfortunately, Dvalishvili has a way of forcing fighters to look less than their best. To win this fight, Yan will have to go against his nature by fighting aggressively early on, and we’ve never seen “No Mercy” do that against elite opposition. It’s a serious ask to break long-established habits in a world title fight, let alone against an opponent as grueling as Merab.
When fighters fatigue, they rely on instinct and habits. Yan’s instincts and habits betray him in this style clash, and avoiding fatigue against Dvalishvili seems like a near-impossible task.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision
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