Mitch Keller, as I like to call him, ‘Quality Keller,’ is now tied for third in the MLB with 16 quality starts this season after a season-high nine strikeouts against the Cardinals last night. It was much needed after his horrific performances in August, which have become a recurring theme in his career.
Keller has become one of the more well-respected veteran pitchers in baseball. While he’s not considered an elite ace, he’s a solid piece to go alongside a top-tier pitcher like Paul Skenes as the 2
or 3 starter in the rotation. But his consistently bad post-All-Star break performances for the third year in a row, and the overall slightly above-average numbers he seems to put up by the end of the last few seasons, make me wonder if he can truly be trusted as a reliable pitcher to make a postseason run in the future (although that is an unlikely scenario).
Even after last night’s solid performance, his ERA this month is 7.88. Similar to the previous two seasons, his ERA, which was once in the mid-to-low threes in July, is now 4.35, and his WHIP is 1.28. He’ll have to have at least an average to above-average rest of this season to stay where he’s at, and the trends suggest otherwise.
Is this really his ceiling? Should the Pirates have traded him at the deadline, at what may have been his highest value (although we saw what Cherington did with Bednar at what many of us thought was a pretty high value)?
We all know from Keller’s overall body of work that he is a much better pitcher than what the end-of-the-season stats suggest. However, the numbers are what they are, and his contract is what it is (which is a reasonably good deal, but nothing is a good deal for this organization). And if he just runs out of gas at what is the most critical part of the season (for a team that would be in contention, that is), it makes me question the overall strength of this rotation to help the Pirates be a contender down the stretch in 2026.
Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft have the potential to be better than Keller is over a full season, but they’re young and unpredictable. Jared Jones is a big question mark for obvious reasons right now, as his timetable to return is up in the air, and the issue of staying healthy when he returns will be a constant concern. Johan Oviedo is constantly boom or bust and never consistent in any way. Mike Burrows is young but looks like a 4 or 5 starter at best right now, and they’ll probably bring in their typical Andrew Heaney-type lefty on a cheap contract for depth.
For these reasons, I am rooting for Mitch Keller to somehow reach another gear in this final month of the season, get over this second-half hump of his, and prove that he can legit be a 1-2 punch atop the rotation with Skenes for 30+ starts a year. I was glad the Pirates kept him at this deadline because, despite solid organizational depth, you can never have enough quality starting pitchers who can eat up a lot of innings and stay healthy these days. Hopefully, Keller can further increase his value to this team by the end of the season.
