It goes without saying that No. 7 (and soon to be ranked lower) Maryland is no longer considered a national championship contender.
They were never a frontrunner, and now with two stars in Kaylene Smikle
and Bri McDaniel officially out for the season, the consensus is that this Terrapin team can’t go all the way. In fact, nearly every Big Ten game now becomes a challenge for them, a battle that could go either way, like Thursday’s 3-point loss to receiving-votes Illinois.
Who knows how bad Maryland’s record could end up being in such a competitive conference?
With that being said, let’s not overreact to one loss.
Maryland (14-1, 2-1 Big Ten) has been upset in the past, and they tend to bounce back and (mostly) get back to their winning ways, thanks in large part to having Brenda Frese at the helm. It would be unheard of for them to have a losing record in the Big Ten, a conference they have dominated since joining in 2014-15, though they did come close with a 9-9 record in 2023-24. Other than that season, they have never finished below .700 or third place in the league, a league that albeit is much different now with the addition of the West Coast teams.
Expect Maryland to show a lot of fight, and to at times exceed expectations, like they did in 2023-24 when they took down then-No. 4 Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament and nearly advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament as a No. 10 seed. Like they did when they came back from down nine in double overtime to defeat Minnesota this very season. They will give it all their heart, and likely show glimmers of Elite Eight or Final Four potential, but a national championship is out of the question now (unless you’re holding onto irrational hope like I am), and, honestly, they’re going to have to battle just to avoid falling further and further down in the rankings.
They’re down two of their best players and three members of their rotation. They’ve still got Oluchi Okananwa and Yarden Garzon—imagine where they’d be without those two transfer portal additions from this past offseason—plus Saylor Poffenbarger and Addi Mack. (We can imagine where they’d be if Mack hadn’t emerged as a freshman star because she was essentially a no-show in the Illinois game due to foul trouble. If she can avoid that in the future, Maryland will likely defeat other teams of the Illini’s caliber.) The “Big 4” of Okananwa, Garzon, Poffenbarger and Mack is good, but it’s not loaded, which is the difference between having a “Big 4” and a “Big 6,” like so many of the top teams do. The third key loss, that of Lea Bartelme, further impacts the Terps by robbing them of their desired starting point guard, as well as depth at that position.
That simply doesn’t bode well for their chances of remaining in the national conversation.
Turnovers, 3-point shooting explain Terps’ troubles
It seemed like every time Maryland needed a key basket down the stretch on Thursday, they turned the ball over. There was Garzon’s behind-the-back pass to no one and her illegal screen, the latter of which was a debatable call and not necessarily her fault. Still, 18 turnovers in a game is too many and so is averaging 16.2 on the season (they were tied for 156th in the country through Friday). This year, Maryland had 22 turnovers against Towson, 18 against Loyola (MD), UMBC and Bethune-Cookman, and 17 against Mount St. Mary’s. They had no business turning the ball over that much against such weak opponents, and the issue is still plaguing them.
Aside from turnovers, another glaring area of concern against Illinois was 3-point shooting. Maryland went 1-for-12 for their lowest number of attempts and percentage on the season. Their two best 3-point shooters, Garzon and Poffenbarger, went 1-for-7 and 0-for-3, respectively. Rainey Welson and Breanna Williams were both 0-for-1, and that was it—nobody else attempted a trey.
This is troubling.
Garzon has 2.7 makes per game at a 37.4 percent clip, as she has restored her prowess from beyond the arc after struggling early. Poffenbarger is even more efficient at 39.1 percent with 1.9 makes per contest. After them, Maryland has a problem when it comes to long-distance shooting.
Of players with at least three makes, Okananwa is third on the efficiency list at 30.6 percent. Then there’s Mack (25 percent) and Welson (11.8 percent). Nobody else on the team is really a 3-point shooter. It’s not a part of point guard Kyndal Walker’s game, while Marya Boiko, Izzy Ozzy-Momodu and Mir McLean are a combined 0-for-1. Breanna Williams has averaged 11.5 minutes across 12 games and is 3-for-6, while Nicole Fritea (5.8 minutes across eight) is 1-for-1. Bartelme (3-for-7), Ava McKennie (2-for-3), Smikle (1.4 makes per game at 34.9 percent for her career) and McDaniel (0.6 at 38.2) are all out for the season.
Maryland must shoot more 3s, please!
This leaves the onus on Okananwa, Mack and Welson to up their attempts and efficiency. An average of 12 attempts per game would be tied for dead last (or 359th) in the nation. That’s likely not a formula for success in today’s game where 3s are so important.
After her 4-for-4 season-opening performance from 3, Okananwa said she came into this season knowing the team needed her to be someone who could knock down that shot. Is it a coincidence that the first game in which she did not attempt a 3 resulted in Maryland’s first loss? It’s probably better for the Terps if she keeps defenses honest by showing interest in shooting from beyond the arc, even if she’s not knocking it down from out there.
But it’d also be nice if she was knocking it down. She’s been over 30 percent from downtown just five times this season, with two of them being really good performances where she went 4-for-4 and 3-for-4. She’s also been 1-for-1 twice, 1-for-3, 1-for-7 and 0-for-0. She’s been 0-for-something every other time. She’s just a hair above her 30 percent last year at Duke. Her freshman season saw her shoot 34.8 percent. All of this is with under one make per game, so we’re not talking about someone who absolutely loves taking the 3.
But with Smikle out, the Terps need Okananwa to be more of a threat from beyond the arc, and her comment after the first game of the season seemed to indicate that she was focused on becoming that. Perhaps she can get back to that mindset?
The 3-for-4 effort was part of 28 points in just 19 minutes against Wisconsin. She has superstar potential, and it seems like any area of her game she dedicates herself to will improve.
Mack, like Okananwa, has established her driving and finishing abilities at the college level and needs to become a three-level scorer to take her stardom to the next level. She went 3-for-4 from deep over the Kentucky and Hofstra games, but was 0-for-7 over the two that came before Illinois. She’s just a freshman, but her team needs her to step up. Knowing that she is “fearless,” as Frese calls her, I know she will relish the challenge.
Welson is also a freshman and No. 34 in the SportsCenter NEXT 100. She wasn’t ranked 34th for nothing, draining 254 triples at a 37.8 percent clip in high school. Instead of asking someone who is not a 3-point shooter to step up, Maryland needs to look to Okananwa, Mack and Welson. That will mean giving Welson more playing time; she’s only averaging 11.8 minutes per game.
It’s not all bad news for Maryland!
Maryland defeated Delaware State by 70, Central Connecticut State by 68 and Wisconsin by 38 in the three games between Minnesota and Illinois. We can’t check in on Maryland for the first time since Cat’s recap of the Minnesota game without mentioning all that. The win over the Badgers was particularly impressive considering they beat then-No. 20 and now-No. 24 Michigan State by 14. Okananwa’s performance against Wisconsin was truly incredible.
Also, some good news came out of the SEC the same day Maryland fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. No. 11 Kentucky, who the Terps beat 74-66 the day before Thanksgiving, defeated No. 5 LSU 80-78. Not only does this improve Maryland’s resume, but it also shows that LSU, previously thought to be in an unbeatable top tier, is mortal. And with No. 6 Michigan, who played No. 1 UConn within three, falling to receiving-votes-but-unranked Washington, perhaps Maryland still has a shot at beating UConn even though they lost to a receiving-votes opponent.
And there it is. My irrational hope. I’ll leave it there, Terp Nation.
