Indiana football’s path to the playoff just got a lot clearer, narrower

BLOOMINGTON, INDIANA - OCTOBER 31: Jacob Savage #21 of the Indiana Hoosiers reacts during the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium on October 31, 2026 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) | Getty Images This’ll be the last time we focus on that sec

College Football

SEE ALL

SB Nation

2026 MW/PAC-12 All-Transfer Team: Week Ten

SB Nation

Seedy K’s Peerless Pigskin Prognostications: Week XI

SB Nation

No. 6 Texas vs. No. 21 LSU preview: Talented Tigers host Longhorns in monumental matchup

What is the story about?

This’ll be the last time we focus on that second set of College Football Playoff rankings released last night, I promise.

Indiana’s tumble from No. 4 in last week’s initial set of rankings to No. 9 this week, when it was on a bye, does at least one good thing for the Hoosiers. Their path to earning a playoff bid for the third consecutive season is significantly clearer than it was a week ago, when a lot of different factors were at play.

It’s also a lot narrower. Indiana, coming off a pair of near-losses

against Michigan and Minnesota in overtime, can’t afford the pendulum finally swinging the other direction to suffer a second loss on the season. A 12-1 or 11-2 Indiana with a win or loss in the ensuing Big Ten Championship Game makes it into the field. A 10-2 Indiana with losses to Ohio State and whoever else probably doesn’t, something Notre Dame found out last year.

You probably don’t love that comparison, but it holds water. The Fighting Irish were, rightfully, left out because they dropped two games to fringe playoff teams in Miami and Texas A&M despite strong play elsewhere. Indiana would be in a pretty similar spot with losses to Ohio State and USC, neither of which would be in the field today, only with close losses instead of blowout wins.

Indiana’s schedule, no matter how you feel about the committee’s approach to the Big Ten vs. the SEC and whatnot, is clearly not viewed favorably. This isn’t the SEC, where multiloss teams still have a shot because of wins over other, ranked, SEC teams. That’s the only factor that could’ve possibly pushed the Hoosiers so far down in the rankings. With Indiana’s strength of record previously keeping it afloat, it’s now working against it with all of Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan and Minnesota losing on Saturday.

A loss to the Trojans would put the Hoosiers just outside the field and almost certainly leave them relying on weird finishes elsewhere to earn a bid. A loss to either of Washington or Purdue ends Indiana’s playoff hopes even if it beats USC.

The next step is clear for Indiana: 3-0. Nothing less will do.