The Red Sox are up against the wall. Cam Schlittler, once again, shoved against the Red Sox in game one, throwing 117 pitches in a 6.1-inning shutout before handing it over to the bullpen. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber shut the door, keeping the Red Sox off the scoreboard to win game one, 9-0. Coming into this season, the winner of game one has won 15 of 16 Wild Card series since playoff expansion. The only exception is the Yankees over the Red Sox last season.
If the Red Sox want to keep their
season alive, it comes down to Sonny Gray. Let’s think about it in innings. The Red Sox used five relievers on Tuesday night: Erik Miller, Greg Weissert, Alec Gamboa, Wyatt Olds, and Brayan Bello.
Erik Miller was excellent immediately after being acquired, but his September, as well as his career-long control issues, should reduce him to only low-leverage spots. Greg Weissert can potentially provide an inning, but he’s not an arm to trust on back-to-back days in a sticky spot. Alec Gamboa and Wyatt Olds were both late additions to the roster, and neither looked particularly up to the job in game one, while Brayan Bello has never pitched two days in a row in the major leagues.
That leaves Ranger Suarez, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bennett as the unused pitchers, alongside today’s starter Sonny Gray.
Ranger Suarez is set to start game three. Garrett Crochet is a complete unknown. He hasn’t pitched since April, and he was ineffective when he was on the mound. If he’s healthy, I’d expect him to be able to get outs, but who knows where he’s truly at health-wise. Garrett Whitlock has been one of the best relievers in baseball, but his longest outing of the season is 1.1 innings. He’s only thrown more than 30 pitches once this season, and it came in an outing in which he walked two hitters. Extending him for more than one inning could be a tricky proposition. And then there’s Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, like Whitlock, has been fantastic, but hasn’t got more than three outs in a game this season. If you put those three arms together and assign two innings to Crochet, that’s four innings. Of course, given the stakes, they could extend Whitlock or Chapman, but their effectiveness after three outs is a relative mystery. If you want to give Jake Bennett an inning or two, you could, but he doesn’t seem like an arm they’d go to unless they were trailing, and there’s no need to eat innings in a do-or-die game.
The offense was, at least in terms of scoring, the worst in baseball in September. Roman Anthony was lost in the middle of game one, and the rest of the lineup couldn’t touch Schlittler. If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t put money on them putting a lot of runs on the board against Max Fried. If they want a chance to win the game, they’ll need to keep the Yankees off the board, and with the lack of quality innings in the bullpen, that means getting length out of Sonny Gray.
Gray has been the Red Sox best starter by ERA this season. He’s gone at least six innings in 22 of his 29 starts. In two starts against the Yankees, he’s allowed three earned runs over 13.2 innings pitched with 12 strikeouts and 3 walks. Despite a 14-year career, Gray has only thrown in six postseason games. In those six games, he has a 3.26 ERA, but has only pitched more than five innings once (an 8-inning shoutout for the Athletics against the Tigers in 2013). For the Red Sox to win today, they need Sonny Gray to turn in one of the best postseason performances of his career.
Fortunately, Chad Tracy can unload the clip in game two, because in playoff baseball terms, game three might as well be in six months. The Red Sox need to play every card they have to keep the season alive, but Sonny Gray keeping the Yankees off the scoreboard for as long as possible is the key.
