Howdy and welcome back to Fun With Numbers, your favorite advanced stats preview of Texas A&M Football and their upcoming opponents. Lets not waste any more time with pleasantries and jump right into the colored charts and jargon that bring all 15 of you back, week after week.
How’d We Do Last Week?
Oh you know, just your average SEC Game where you lead the whole 4 quarters, outgain the opponent by nearly 250 yards, had a win expectancy of 97%, and very easily could have lost it had the defense not continued to play well
or had Hugh Freeze managed to find some semblance of an offensive game plan.
Look, there’s plenty to be displeased about from the Auburn game, penalties (real or otherwise) have to get cleaned up and the offense still needs to find a little consistency, but overall this game was closer to being a blow out than it was a loss, and I think it was far more encouraging to see how well the defense played when we really needed them to.
What Do We Know?
The unbeaten Aggies get another home test this week against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 4-1 with a win over Arizona State and a loss last week to Tennessee in overtime. They’ve already doubled last season’s win total, and have been riding an impressive offense to a Top 30 SP+ ranking. It’s their first time leaving the state of Mississippi this season (their only other away game was against Southern Miss), and Vegas has the Ags as a 14.5 point home favorite. The SP+ views it as a much closer ballgame, predicting the Ags to win by 5, and the FEI predicts more like an 11 point victory. Let’s take a closer look.
Aggie Offense vs Bulldog Defense
The Aggie run game has still had trouble finding its footing in 2025, but you can feel it starting to come together now that teams have begun to respect the Aggie passing game as a legitimate threat. They’re still struggling a bit to finish drives, but take care of the ball well, and do a good job of hitting big plays on Passing Downs.
In Year 2 of Lebby (and under Coleman Hutzler as DC), the Mississippi State defense has made some big strides. Granted, they have only been tested against one Top 25 OSP+ team (Tennessee at #5) and they gave up 34 points in regulation, but they’re still looking leagues better than the 2024 squad. They’re pretty efficient, and though teams have had some success in the run game and the Front 7 doesn’t create much Havoc, they make up for it with a secondary that does a good job of disrupting passes (31st in Passing Success Rate and 10 Interceptions on the year) and preventing home run plays on the ground.
Aggie Defense vs Bulldog Offense
After a shaky start, everyone is kind of hoping that the Auburn game was a “switch-flipping” moment for the Aggie Defense as conference play kicks off. They appear to be improving against the run, the pass rush is finding its groove, and there’s a good argument that this is the best the Aggies have looked at cornerback in a long, long time. They’re not perfect, but they’re starting to play like you’d expect from an Elko squad.
They’ll face another RPO heavy offense, with big backs, speed out wide, and a veteran QB in Shapen to lead the way. It doesn’t feel TOO different from Auburn last week, but the Bulldogs have had a lot more success getting the run game going with Booth and Bothwell (Not a law firm), and actually hitting big plays through the air (notably one big one to walk off Arizona State earlier in the season).
So What’s the Verdict?
I should probably be a little more concerned about this game than I am. It certainly has all the makings of a trap game, but I also just feel like this team is very close to putting it all together on both sides of the ball for a full 4 quarters. I don’t know if it all happens this weekend, but why not at a sold out, blacked out Kyle Field? The Aggies are going to have to get better at finishing drives if they want to finish out this season better than last year, and need to continue to prevent big runs from breaking loose on the edges and into the secondary. With the Aggie Front 7 starting to really find ways to bring pressure, Mississippi State likely missing at least one starting tackle, and that already tough Sack Rate… I feel like this could be another big week of putting the opposing QB in the dirt.
My Prediction: I think the Aggie defense is able to capitalize off of last week’s momentum and do a better job containing the run game than Tennessee did, and I think Reed and the receivers are the perfect group to pick apart this 3-3-5 Bulldog defense. Aggies win 31-17, beware that half point hook if you’re betting this one.
Side note: Last week someone asked what my record is on picking these games, so I went back and did some light research. It appears I am 42-17 in picking the winner of the Aggie games but only 26-30-3 when picking against the spread. Do with that information what you will.
Final Notes
Thanks for coming back this week, we’ll see you next time for the Florida game.
- Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
- ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info (as well as the FPI rankings). You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
- CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.
- And finally my blog can be found here, in case you’re not getting enough of my writing.
