The Cubs got a couple of unfriendly reminders in Tuesday night. It’s hard to win night after night on the road and just how daunting the task of chasing down the Brewers is going to be at this point. The Cubs offense didn’t look particularly strong and Matthew Boyd was not his usual dominant self. All of that added up to a 5-2 loss and a game lost to the Brewers in the standings.
Ironically, the Cubs had gained a couple of games on the Brewers over the weekend after this Giants team took games from
them on Saturday and Sunday. The Giants are out of contention for the playoffs, but are clearly still playing hard and playing well. 42-year-old Justin Verlander finally picked up his second win of the season but still sits with a garish 2-10 record that has be humbling for a guy with his body of work. Of course, he wouldn’t still be pitching at 42 if he hadn’t earned it over a long career of good work.
The Cubs threatened in the first and third innings, but couldn’t put any runs on the board. That let the Giants jump out to the early lead. The Cubs did bounce back with runs in the fourth and fifth, but Boyd had one real bad inning and the Giant bullpen dominated. That was all she wrote for this one. Maybe if the Cubs break through early this one was a different story. But on this night, Verlander held the line and Boyd didn’t. It’s unfortunate, I think if this game is played 100 times, the Cubs win it well more than 50 times, even on the road. But it wasn’t to be.
I didn’t see anything in this game that changes the overall, mostly positive vibes of the team. The more mortal version of the offense that has been present for a few months was there. But, they did battle offensively. This wasn’t the vacant offense we saw right after the break. The bullpen was terrific, keeping the score right where it was with the depth relievers. It was just Boyd being a little off. Only a little off, really. He did strike out eight. But he also walked three and allowed two crushing homers.
So really, long story short was the Giants busted through when they needed to, the Cubs didn’t. The Brewers rolled and so not only does a day fall off of the schedule, the deficit in the Central grows. The biggest takeaway is how difficult it is to consistently win on the road, even if the Cubs are better than most at it. There is a ton of value to winning the top Wild Card spot. It’s no guarantee of a trip onward as we’ve seen through the years. But, you’d rather have it than not. So this team is going to need to keep the pedal to the floor and keep these setbacks to a minimum. I still think this team has a shot at as many as seven wins on this trip which would be wildly successful.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 122, 33 BF (8 IP)
- Giants: 145, 37 BF
The Cubs check in a little over 15 pitches per inning. The Giants were at a little over 16 pitches per inning. So you can see that the Cub offense made the Giants work. The approach was there, but the results were not. These pitch counts were inflated, in part, because of 10 strikeouts apiece. No great tea leaves to read here. The overarching point is that the game looks statistically closer than it was. Home runs do that. Particularly, two-run homers.
Three Cub relievers threw in this one, none threw more than 15 pitches and all should be available as needed through the rest of the trip. For the highest leverage relievers, they are all off again and that should positively impact their ability to go aggressively at four or five more wins on this trip.
For the Giants, three relievers topped out at 19 pitches. They should also be very available for the remainder of the series. So this game didn’t have any forward looking impact. Both teams should be on a level playing field and able to go aggressively at another win Wednesday night.
Three Stars:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a pair of hits, one a double. He stole a base and scored a run.
- Matt Shaw had an RBI-single that felt huge at the time.
- Dansby Swanson had a single and a walk. That walk also felt huge at the time.
Game 132, August 26: Giants 5, Cubs 2 (76-56)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matt Shaw (.088). 1-3, RBI
- Hero: Carson Kelly (.041). 1-4, RBI
- Sidekick: Taylor Rogers (.011). IP, 4 BF, H, 2 K
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.352). 5.1 IP, 24 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 ER, 8 K (L 12-7)
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.109). 0-4
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.100). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Heliot Ramos’s two-out, RBI-double in the fifth inning tied the game at two. (.165)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Carson Kelly’s two-out, RBI-single in the top of the fifth to give the Cubs a brief lead. (.140)
**The three biggest WPA play of the games were all Giants run-scoring players. They accounted for the second, third, fourth and fifth runs. It’s not always that divided, but that sums this one up quickly, the Giants found the big hits and the Cubs didn’t.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Jameson Taillon (162 of 232 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +24
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +15.67
- Carson Kelly -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -28.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win Tuesday after losing Monday while the Cubs were off. They drop back into WC2 (Cubs up 1.5). Mets (WC 3) win Monday and Tuesday (Cubs up 5). Reds lose Monday and Tuesday (Cubs up 8.5). The Reds need to finish 22-7 to reach 90 wins. And I’ll still take the over on 90 wins for the Cubs. This team is closing on a full lock on a playoff spot.
Up Next: Game two of the three-game set Wednesday night in San Francisco. Colin Rea (10-5, 3.96, 127.1) makes another start for the Cubs. Once again, it feels like an important one. You don’t want a second straight loss while the Mets have righted the ship a little. Rea has been so consistent. Over his last seven, he’s at 4.08. He doesn’t appear to be tailing off. He’s actually been a little better on the road (3.81 vs. 4.06) and a fair bit better at night (3.64 vs. 4.15). In four August starts, he’s at 2.53.
Lefty Carson Whisenhunt (1-1, 4.91, 18.1 IP) makes his fifth career start. He was the Giants’ second-round pick in 2022 (66th overall). Not a lot of body of work for him. The big note there is lefty and we’ve talked ad nauseam about how much more often the Cubs have won against right-handed starters than lefty. Whisenhunt has topped out at 88 pitches and only pitched into the sixth inning once. So don’t expect to see him too deep in this one. That makes Verlander’s start all of the more valuable to the Giants.
This team does hit lefties, they just haven’t done as well against left-handed starters. Hopefully, they punch through on this one.
