Dallas gets a short turnaround after its dramatic 34-30 comeback victory over Houston, but Thursday night brings a very winnable home matchup. Tampa Bay is still searching for its first victory and will again start undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels in place of the injured Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers’ defense has kept games close, though, so Dallas cannot afford another slow start like the one it produced in Houston.
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Tampa Bay needs to make life as easy as possible for Daniels. In his first NFL start
against Green Bay, he threw for only 148 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, but his 55 rushing yards showed how dangerous he can become when plays break down. The Buccaneers also ran for 141 yards as a team, so expect Bucky Irving, Kenny Gainwell and Daniels to be heavily involved on the ground. That approach makes sense against a Dallas defense that has struggled throughout the opening month and cannot afford to let another mobile quarterback extend drives with his legs.
The clearest opportunity for Dallas comes up front. Tampa Bay has allowed 16 sacks through four games and currently owns the NFL’s highest sack rate per passing play. That should be an invitation for Quinnen Williams, Rashan Gary and the rest of a Cowboys pass rush that has produced only four sacks itself. Dallas has been waiting for this group to take over a game, and facing a rookie quarterback behind struggling protection gives them perhaps their best opportunity yet. If Dallas can win early downs and make Daniels throw from obvious passing situations, turnovers could follow.
When Dallas has the ball
Dallas should continue putting the game in Dak Prescott’s hands. Prescott threw for 335 yards in Houston and repeatedly went back to CeeDee Lamb, who caught 17 passes for 189 yards and the winning touchdown. Lamb now leads the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, and Tampa Bay will have to find a way of slowing him down without leaving George Pickens isolated elsewhere. That is easier said than done, particularly with safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerback Benjamin Morrison both expected to miss this game.
Javonte Williams also deserves to remain a central part of the plan after scoring three rushing touchdowns against Houston, but this is not the week to stubbornly force the run. Tampa Bay has been one of the NFL’s better run defenses, so Brian Schottenheimer should use Williams to maintain balance before attacking through the air.
Playing at AT&T Stadium also removes most concerns about weather and field conditions, allowing Dallas to play fast on its familiar surface. The formula should be straightforward, protect Prescott, continue feeding Lamb and Pickens, make Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback chase points and finally give the Cowboys pass rush an opportunity to attack.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Brandon Loree (3-1)
As RJ Ochoa said this week: if the Dallas Cowboys are a serious football team, they have no business losing on Thursday night.
But doesn’t it just feel like Jaylon Daniels is going to run for 102 yards, given Dallas can’t stop a mobile quarterback, and what do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to lose? Their 0-4 and desperate teams do weird things.
I still like Dallas’ chances of winning this game, and it should be a fun one, but don’t count out the Bucs, who played better than expected against the Packers. Cowboys win 32-23.
Dyllan Rivers (3-1)
Dallas has the opportunity this week to face off against an undrafted rookie quarterback in just his second start. If the defense can’t come way with several sacks and forced errors on this struggling Buccaneers team, it’ll be disappointing to say the least. The Cowboys offense continues to roll and George Pickens get heavily involved. I’m uncomfortable with picking a blowout win, but if Dallas isn’t looking ahead at the extended rest, this should be a relatively easy game. Dallas wins 34-24.
Tom Ryle (2-2)
I’m like Dyllan, but I see it like this: Either the Cowboys win big, or their season will start circling the drain. A narrow win over a plucky opponent won’t cut it, and I refuse to even discuss what a loss would mean. Maybe I’m just not ready to write Dallas off, but I’ll take them 27-9 over Tampa Bay in a game where the foot comes off the gas pedal early.
Matt Holleran (3-1)
I think this game will be the first time in 2026 we see the Cowboys’ defense come to life. While Tampa still has some quality offensive weapons, quarterback Jalon Daniels, making just his second career start, should present an opportunity for Dallas’ defense to get right. On a short week I see the script flipping and Dallas’ defense being the stars on Thursday night. The Cowboys move to 3-2 in a low-scoring affair. Give me Dallas, 23-16.
Mike Poland (2-2)
Let’s pit each opposing offense’s stats against each other and see where they rank.
Dallas total points scored- 2nd, Tampa Bay- 23rd.
Dallas total offensive yards- 9th, Tampa Bay- 31st.
Passing yards, Dallas ranks 7th, Tampa 31st.
Rush yards, Dallas 14th, Tampa 28th.
Third down conversion rate, Dallas 1st, Tampa 24th.
And Tampa now have to come into Dallas on a short week with their starting quarterback, safety, cornerback, and rotational defenders expected to miss the game. Yea, give me Dallas taking this one 41-17.
