Fresh off the first win of the Mike Vrabel era, the New England Patriots will return home for a battle of 1-1 teams: they will welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to Gillette Stadium. While the Steelers will want to get back into the win column after a loss in Week 2, the Patriots hope to stay there — all while earning their first home win of the 2025 season.
The oddsmakers are not confident that this will happen; the Patriots are listed as a 1.5-point underdogs at home even after their 33-27 win in Miami.
However, if we compare the two teams and their performances so far this season, we can see that New England coming away victoriously would certainly not be a surprise either.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Steelers pass defense: Coming off the best game of his career, Drake Maye will go up against a pass defense that is ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple statistical categories through two games. There are still plenty of high-profile individual players on the unit capable of making life hard for Maye and company, but Pittsburgh’s uninspiring game plans and a lack of cohesion in the secondary has been hurting the unit so far. If the Patriots can use last week’s showing as a springboard, they should therefore be able to find success moving the ball through the air. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Steelers pass offense: New England’s pass defense has yinged and yanged its way through the season so far. On the one hand, you have one of the most productive pass rushes in the NFL. On the other hand, the second and third levels have looked rough at times. Now going up against Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf and company, that is a definitive concern for the Patriots. Then again, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has not been much better either, so the difference between the two groups might actually be negligible. For now, we are giving the Steelers the slight advantage, but it would not take a lot — a certain starting cornerback making his season debut, for example — to flip that. | Edge: Steelers
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Steelers run defense: Welcome to your classic matchup between a stoppable force and a movable object. Neither the Patriots running game nor the Steelers run defense have looked good so far this season, ranking 29th and 28th in EPA, respectively, over the first two weeks of the season. New England has potential for improvement, especially with its offensive line developing chemistry and the passing game possibly opening up as well, but time will tell how quickly it will get there. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Steelers rushing offense: On paper, this is as big a mismatch as you will find. Whereas New England’s run defense has impressed in Weeks 1 and 2 and is one of the top-rated units in several statistical categories, Pittsburgh has had a rough time building momentum on the ground so far. The leading duo of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell is not bad by any means, but the pair has not been able to get going and is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry so far. Against Christian Barmore, Milton Williams and company, that will not get the job done. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
If there is one word to sum up the Patriots’ special teams performance through two games this season, it might be “volatile.” The unit of coordinator Jeremy Springer has experienced some impressive highs and disappointing lows so far, and in general been a lot more uneven than the solid Steelers group it is set to face on Sunday. If New England lives up to its potential, this could be an even matchup. So far, however, there has been no concrete proof of the Patriots being able to do that. | Edge: Steelers
Coaching
The Steelers have one of the most experienced coaching staffs in the NFL, led by the league’s longest-tenured head coach. And yet, we are going with Mike Vrabel’s first-year group here for one main reason: adaptability. While the early-season sample size is admittedly small, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin have essentially played the same brand of football for almost two decades now — a brand of football that New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has had some success against in the past. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
So far this season, the Steelers have won against the Jets in comeback fashion and been blown out by the Seahawks. They have not been terrible, but they also did not look like a particularly well-oiled machine through two games. Obviously, neither have the Patriots and their margin of error remains fairly small, but we are still bullish on the home team in this one. If they can build off of Week 2 on offense, and show some growth on defense, they should be in a competitive position to prove the oddsmakers wrong.
