In the past, I have had several terrible Week 1s in picks. I have always chalked it up to knowing so little about how teams will actually play to start the new year. This season, however, I started 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU), which is, of course, all due to skill.
Iowa (+2.5) @ Iowa State
You can go down a transitive property rabbit hole with the Big 12. Iowa State beat Kansas State, so that must mean they’re pretty solid. But Kansas State almost lost to North Dakota, who isn’t even a good FCS team, so maybe
that win doesn’t mean much. So if Iowa wins the Cy Hawk trophy, does that imply that the Cyclones, Wildcats, and Hawks are all worse than we thought? I don’t think we’ll have to answer that question because I think Rocco Becht gives Iowa State more balance and more ways to win.
Iowa State 24 – Iowa 21
Illinois (-2.5) @ Duke
While not a rivalry game, this match-up is another interesting and evenly balanced clash between P4 foes. Illinois returns its entire offensive line and ran for over 200 yards in Week 1. Meanwhile, Duke gave up a startling 163 yards on the ground against FCS Elon. Darian Mensah gives the Blue Devils a play-maker at QB. Illinois has done well to pressure QBs without blitzing under Bret Bielma. If they can make Mensah uncomfortable and force a mistake or two, they should be able to score enough to capitalize.
Illinois 28 – Duke 23
Oklahoma State (+28.5) @ Oregon
The storyline coming into this game is the verbal sparring match between the coaches about whether and how much money is appropriate to spend on a football team. Mike Gundy may be trying to set expectations because OSU has reason for concern headed into Autzen. The offense looked pretty bad against UT Martin after starting QB Hauss Hejny injured his foot early. The Cowboys will not be able to score enough to keep up with the Ducks. The question is whether they can scheme enough defensively to make things difficult for the young Dante Moore and a less prolific offensive line. Dan Lanning has liked to run up the score in early season games in the past, and with the war of words during the week, he has even less reason to call off the dogs.
Oregon 49 – OSU 13
UCLA (-2.5) @ UNLV
I always find it interesting when P4 teams play non-conference road games against G5 teams. The Bruins probably wished they had friendlier confines coming off a beatdown at the hands of Utah. Even Nico Iamaleava, who was supposed to be the bright spot on the roster, struggled against the Utes. The defense was especially bad, which could be a major issue against the new spread offense installed by Dan Mullen.
UNLV 30 – UCLA 26
Michigan (+5.5) @ Oklahoma
The Wolverines and Sooners have some similarities coming into 2025. Both teams brought in new QBs and OCs after their predictable offenses couldn’t keep up with excellent defenses in ‘24. Chip Lindsey seems to be modernizing Michigan’s run-heavy offense by introducing some RPOs, option routes, and spread formations. The complexity might be an issue for true freshman Bryce Underwood as he takes on a Brett Venables defense that is complex enough on its own. John Mateer is a much more experienced QB and familiar with the system and has home field advantage, but I expect a very close slugfest.
Oklahoma 21 – Michigan 20
UC-Davis @ Washington (no betting line available)
Not all FCS opponents are created equal. Although there’s an understandable presumption to write them all off as obvious wins when they pop up on the schedule, there’s a big difference between North Dakota State (who can’t even get FBS teams to schedule them) and teams like Stetson and Davidson in the Pioneer conference. Coming off an FCS quarterfinal and ranked #5 in the FCS polls, the Aggies are much closer to the former than the latter.
UC-Davis is built on a fast-paced offense that likes to run the ball. HC Tim Plough has paid his dues as an assistant up and down the west coast, previously as the Davis OC during one of the best runs in school history. He was the Boise State offensive coordinator for a season and change before coming back to the Aggies and bringing them to the highest ranking in school history. The offense will lean on a rotation of RBs and an experienced offensive line. If there’s one thing the Huskies are concerned about coming out of Week 1, it’s the depth and talent along the defensive line. Don’t be surprised if we see some frustrating, sustained drives by UC-Davis where we all ask ourselves why we can’t get this lower-division offense off the field.
The defense also features some star players at the FCS level. Rex Connors was a pre-season All-American at safety and won Big Sky Defensive POTY in Week 1. David Meyer was also an All-American at ILB last year. However, the Aggies turned over most of their defensive front and were not great against mobile QBs last year. The Dawgs were much better offensively in the second half against Colorado State when Demond Williams got out of the pocket or got rid or the ball quickly. The same should be true this week. I’m also excited to see if the huge game by Jonah Coleman is about to become the new norm. If the offensive line can play as well as they did against the Rams, he could pile up even more yardage.
Any FCS team coming into Husky Stadium will face an uphill battle. With that said, UC-Davis is a talented and accomplished FCS team and should be able to put up a fight. I’m picking Washington to win by a fairly comfortable margin, but don’t expect it to be a walkover.
Washington 40 – UC-Davis 21
