Surviving and advancing in March requires more than just heart. It requires mathematical execution.
When Kentucky matched up against Texas earlier this season, the Wildcats found themselves trailing by just three points in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns ultimately pulled away for an 11-point victory. The blueprint for an upset was laid out on that floor. Now, with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line, Kentucky simply has to clean up the margins.
If the Wildcats want to keep dancing, these
are the seven statistical keys they must master against a lethal Texas squad.
1. Clean up the turnover catastrophe
Coughing the basketball up 23 times is going to get you beat. Kentucky barely got here after turning it over 17 times against West Virginia. If you followed the team, you knew this was going to be number 1. Giving away possessions is exactly why Kentucky lost the first matchup. And a lot of these turnovers are just unforced. Double dribbles, bad passes, these girls are better than that.
Texas boasts one of the most terrifying perimeter defenders in the country in Rori Harmon, who averages 2.7 steals per game and swiped three against Kentucky last time. The Wildcats average 12.7 turnovers on the season, which isn’t bad. But they have hit 20 5 different times, and 16+ 10 times. If they can stick to their season average, Texas loses its transition momentum. 13 or fewer turnovers.
2. Replicate the Madison Booker blueprint
Holding a National Player of the Year candidate to a 1-for-6 shooting night is almost impossible. Yet, that is exactly what Kentucky did to Madison Booker in their last meeting. Booker is an absolute machine, averaging 19.3 points on 52.2% shooting for the season. Kentucky forced her into contested looks and frustrated her all night, limiting her to just 8 points. Kentucky has the size to make this a hard matchup, but much like South Carolina in the second game in the SEC Tournament, players can get hot. If the Wildcats can replicate even a fraction of that defensive intensity on Booker, the Longhorns will struggle to find steady offense, and the Cats will stay in this one for 40 minutes. If not, well, it may be a problem. Hold Booker to 12 or fewer.
3. Fix the massive free-throw disparity
Leaving eight points on the floor in a tight game is the definition of a missed opportunity. Kentucky shot an abysmal 11-for-19 (58%) from the charity stripe in the first matchup, while Texas calmly knocked down 17 of its 22 attempts (77%). The Wildcats shoot 69.1% from the stripe on the season, which can be costly in a close game. These ladies have to hit the free ones. Shoot 25 free throws.
4. Keep Clara Strack on the floor
Averaging a double-double with 16.9 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, Clara Strack is the undisputed engine of this Kentucky team. She can carry them offensively at times. During the last meeting, she dropped 14 points and grabbed 7 boards, but she also ended up with 4 fouls last time. No cheap fouls can be given here. Texas will absolutely try to attack her inside with Justice Carlton and Kyla Oldacre. Strack has to dominate the paint without picking up early fouls, because Kentucky cannot afford to have her sitting on the bench for extended stretches. Strack has 3 or fewer fouls heading to 4th.
5. Unleash the Asia Boone X-Factor
Finding a hot hand is the not-so-secret ingredient to a deep March Madness run. Asia Boone was on fire against Texas earlier this year, exploding for 15 points in 29 minutes and knocking down 4 of her 6 attempts from beyond the arc. As a team, Kentucky actually outshot Texas from deep in that game (43% to 21%). If Boone can catch fire and stretch the floor again, it opens up the entire driving lane for the rest of the offense. She was 3-7 against the Mountaineers, so she definitely has it in her. 4+ 3’s would be huge.
6. Tonie Morgan must control the tempo
Handling heavy defensive pressure requires an unflappable floor general. Tonie Morgan has been brilliant this season, averaging 13.9 points, 8.0 assists, and 3.1 rebounds while playing massive minutes (she played all 40 in Morgantown). However, the Texas defense sped her up in the first matchup, forcing her into six turnovers. Morgan has to be the steadying force in the Sweet 16. Kentucky, at times, looked unstoppable against West Virginia because she was able to control the game. She pushed when she wanted to, and slowed it down when she wanted to. But sometimes WVU got her going too fast, and it resulted in rushed shots and turnovers. That can’t happen with what is going to be a hostile crowd down in Fort Worth. Less than 3 turnovers and hold Texas under 70 points.
7. Win the battle of the boards again
Securing extra possessions another way this Kentucky team can attack the Longhorns. Despite Texas averaging 38.6 rebounds per game on the season, Kentucky actually won the rebounding battle 30-29 in their previous matchup in Austin. That bodes well for Kentucky here. They will need to replicate that. The Wildcats average 40.6 boards per contest and have the length to frustrate the Longhorns inside. Limiting Texas to one shot per possession and cleaning the defensive glass will keep Kentucky right in the thick of this game until the final buzzer. +3 on the glass.
Bonus key– Teonni Key
Teonni Key is the emotional leader for this team, and she can’t go 3-9 in this game as she did in Austin. She will need to make good passes and make the easy ones at the rim. If she can get a double-double, I really like Kentucky in this game.
The fact is no No.1 seed is easy to play against. Kentucky has the advantage of playing Texas already on the road, which helps here. UCLA, UConn, South Carolina, and Texas are the best 4 teams in women’s college basketball. Of those 4, Kentucky played 2 pretty tightly in the regular season. It is going to take a perfect game from these ladies, but I think they get it down.
Prediction: Kentucky 69, Texas 65
