The day has finally arrived.
Today, we’ll know the final order of the upcoming NBA draft where the Hawks are slated to have three picks — one of those landing in the lottery despite Atlanta making the playoffs.
Last year, the Hawks acquired a valuable pick swap by sending out the 13th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to pick up the 23rd overall pick in that draft — Asa Newell — and an unprotected 2026 first-round pick swap between the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans.
Both teams missed the
playoffs (and the Play-In Tournament entirely), giving the Hawks extra lottery balls to jump into the top 4.
Now let’s answer a few questions about today’s proceedings:
What are the lottery odds for this pick swap?
There has been some misinformation floating around about the true odds of where this pick will end up. Due to the statistical complexity of all of the lottery scenarios — as well as the chances both Milwaukee and New Orleans both see their combinations drawn — it’s not as easy as adding the two teams’ odds together.
The final odds, corroborated by a recent release from the NBA:
First overall pick: 9.700%
Second overall pick: 9.965%
Third overall pick: 10.135%
Fourth overall pick: 10.304%
Top-4 pick: 40.204%
What happens if the Hawks don’t hit the lottery?
In this case, the Hawks could finish no higher than seventh and no lower than 11th (although 11th would be a statistical improbability). The Hawks have a roughly combined 50-50 shot at receiving the seventh or eighth overall pick.
Seventh overall pick: 19.75%
Eighth overall pick: 30.18%
Ninth overall pick: 9.19%
10th overall pick: 0.67%
11th overall pick: less than 0.01%
Who is representing the Hawks at the draft lottery?
In years past, it has been the wife of the principal governor, Jami Gertz, on stage. However, the Hawks didn’t manage to have any luck with her as the talisman from 2018 to 2020.
Two years ago, the Hawks grabbed the number one pick with the top executive at the time, Landry Fields, present for the ceremony. This time, it will be new general manager Onsi Saleh to answer the call.
What about the other Hawks picks?
The Hawks will also have the 23rd overall pick (via the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs) as well as the 57th overall pick (via the Boston Celtics).
What else to watch for this draft lottery?
One of the most interesting things to look for is where Indiana’s pick lands. If it stays within the top four, the Pacers keep the pick. If it slides to fifth or sixth — and there’s a roughly 50% chance at this scenario — the pick goes to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Speaking of the Clippers, their own pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder no matter what happens today. There’s a roughly 7% chance that happening, owing to the Paul George and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trade way back in the 2019 offseason.
How and when can I watch, stream, or listen to the lottery?
Location: Navy Pier, Chicago, IL
Start Time: 3:00 PM EDT
TV: ABC
Radio: ESPN Radio
Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, DirecTV, Fubo, YouTube TV
