2025 In A Discarded-On-The-Dugout-Floor Nutshell
Speed demon continues to show smarts—even when his bat goes cold. Did he generate enough value to stay or enough value to be a part of a big trade package?
The Good
Jarren Duran continues to be an absolute speed
demon and make teams pay for it. Not only was his sprint speed in the 91st percentile in 2025, his base running value overall was in the 98th percentile. Consider his 24 stolen bases, 13 triples, and an inside-the-park home run, and it’s clear that Duran was absolutely punishing on the base paths. His Fielding Run Value was just 2—a dramatic drop from his mark of 11 in 2024, and his Outs Above Average dropped from 10 in 2024 to -4 in 2025. He took a wicked step back with his glove, but still made up for it with a 93rd percentile Arm Value and arm strength in the 71st percentile.
The Bad
Yeah, let’s drag his big drop in defense down here and add in something even larger. The bat was tremendously inconsistent. An OPS+ of 196 in the month of July severely masks a season in which he really hovered either just above or just below league average. When he was on, he was hot, with other monthly OPS numbers of 115 and 111. Otherwise, it was 93, 95, and 95. His legs may have carried him on base—when he could hit the ball to get there. In months where his OPS+ was under league average, he also drove in fewer than 10 RBI each month—aside from the 93, which feels like one heck of an anomaly.
It may not have helped that he fluctuated a LOT around the lineup in September. For someone who was one extremely consistent leadoff hitter when things got hot, he was batting anywhere between third, sixth and seventh down the stretch. I will say that when he got barrel to ball he hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity that was the highest of his career at 91.8 MPH. Still, his chase and whiff rates were both 30th and 20th percentile, respectively and his expected batting metric were frankly, just average.
Best Game or Moment
In the midst of a playoff push to end August, an inside-the-park-homer by Duran got the Fenway faithful absolutely RAUCOUS. I would know, I was there.
The Big Question
Can Jarren Duran fix his hitting? It’s clear that he’s an absolute pest when he can get on base, but his hitting is both average and streaky enough that it makes it incredibly frustrating to watch him at times. We see his potential as a high-end hitter—not necessarily for power but the incredible ability to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He’s a menace and will get into scoring position. When he gets on base.
2026 and Beyond
This is inarguably the biggest question the Red Sox have heading into 2026 and beyond. The log jam Boston has in the outfield is tremendously large and getting bigger. Ceddanne Rafaela—while also super streaky with the bat—may in fact win both Gold and Platinum Gloves this season; he’s one of the best defenders the Red Sox have had in recent memory. He already won the 2025 Fielding Bible Award for MLB center fielders. Roman Anthony is the face of this young core for years to come. It took him a little time to ease into the league but when he arrived, he became the fearsome hitter this lineup has needed—and he still never got close to his ceiling. Wilyer Abreu plays incredible defense and can provide extremely clutch offense. Jhostyhxon Garcia is sitting in Worcester waiting for his turn. Heck, even Masataka Yoshida turned on the afterburners at the dish to end the season, though his defensive play is as flimsy and porous as the Boston Bruins defense this season so far.
It just feels like one of Abreu or Duran is getting traded. Who goes—and what assets they bring back in return—will be one of the biggest impact moves for the next season and beyond. If Duran stays, he’s inarguably on the Major League roster, but whether it’s in platoon capacity—an OPS+ of 134 vs RHP vs 70 vs LHP speaks volumes — or whether he’s an everyday starter is up in the air. It’s clear he’s found his floor in the league after a frustrating first few years in Boston. Where his ceiling is, and how that impacts his value either on the trade market or to the Red Sox, is one of the biggest questions of the offseason.
