We are just over 24 hours from Vanderbilt football teeing it up and kicking off against Charleston Southern to open its 2025 season. This is the first season since 2014 where the program is coming off a bowl victory. Thankfully, there is no lightning in the forecast, and every major member of the coaching staff along with ~70% of its statistical production. A repeat of the Temple Het Wettening does not seem like a statistically significant threat.
The Commodores have had two bowl appearances since
then. The 2017 team, who is probably most similar in terms of returning production if not total and depth of talent, stuttered out to a 28-6 win over MTSU while the 2019 team would lose 30-6 to Georgia with a ton of turnover in talent and a new OC. Vanderbilt should be in a much better position now for a number of reasons, but it mostly boils down to more trust in Clark Lea, Jerry Kill, Robert Stiner (S&C), Barton Simmons, and the rest of the coaching staff. They seem more willing and able to mold schemes and deployments to the players skillsets while finding and acquiring talent that fills (most of) the glaring gaps.
Even with the feeling that we understand what Vanderbilt football will look like in 2025, the first Vanderbilt Football Mailbag of 2025 showed that the staff could see this season going everywhere from 4-8 to 9-3. That was not on aggregate. I think we all put the floor at 4-8 (though Andrew did not give an explicit floor), and two of us had the ceiling at 8-4 with the other two at 9-3. Some of that is the uncertainty of the schedule. Some of that is Vanderbilt going 6-6 in the regular season with 8 games decided by 1-score. (Narrative Note: Vanderbilt was 4-4 in 1-score games and 2-2 in games decided by more than one score, so “close game luck” was NOT some crazy factor.)
All of that rambling preambling aside, it is time to dive into the “tradition” that is the first edition of Lessons in Vanderbilt football each season where I just ask a lot of questions whose answers I think will most define Vanderbilt’s season.
How healthy can Diego Pavia stay? The Commodores were 3-2 when Pavia suffered some sort of hamstring tear (almost certainly partial, but details are fuzzy) during a win over Kentucky. He finished the game and would play every game the rest of the season, but the Commodores would lose 4 of the last 6 to finish at 6-6 in the regular season. He was clearly hampered but not terrible down the stretch. The injury revelation this summer does make a fan look back at the 1-score losses to Texas and LSU and wonder what if. Even the 13-point loss to Tennessee started with a 14-0 lead that a healthy Pavia may have done better to grind away. He, as their fans will constantly remind you on Twitter, was a lackluster 8/17 for 104 yards and carried the ball 11 times for 45 yards.
Who will be keeping Pavia healthy? Of the starting 5 offensive linemen from a year ago, 4 are gone, and 1 has moved down from Strong Tackle to Strong Guard. In their place, a horde of transfers will lead the way. These were sought after transfers, too, not just picking up spare parts. Center Jordan White was on the Outland and Rimington watch lists in 2024 thanks to paving the way for Liberty. Quick Tackle Isaia Glass was an 8-game starter for Oklahoma State in 2024 and started 15 games over 2 seasons with Arizona State before that. Strong Tackle Bryce Henderson is an absolute mountain of a man at 6-8 and 325 pounds who started 34 games over 3 seasons at North Dakota. The Coyotes were ninth in FCS in sacks allowed (0.93) and second in TFL allowed (2.93). Ramping up to play SEC opponents every week will not be easy for this group, especially as they try to find chemistry and cohesion, but Charleston Southern should be an easy way to wade into the season. In terms of depth, tackle is a concern, but Mitchell can slide back out and be serviceable while options exist inside. See the full OL preview for a better picture.
Will Vanderbilt’s offense hold onto the ball as well as they did a season ago? Vanderbilt was the best team in the country at not throwing interceptions (0.3 per game) and not turning the ball overall (0.6 per game). They were T-9th in fumbles lost (0.3 per game) and T-20 in fumbles (0.8 per game). Not turning the ball over led to the T-39th best average Time of Possession (31:02). Avoiding turnovers allowed a non-explosive offense (T-83rd at 5.3 yards per play). Vanderbilt were T-118th in plays of 10+ yards (139) and 20+ yards (41). They were slightly better on the really big plays at T-90th in 30+ yards but back to T-116th (8) for the 40+ yard plays. They have to keep avoiding turnovers for success. Or…
Can the RBs be more explosive? To keep in the vein of explosive plays, Vanderbilt’s rushing attack was T-97th in 10+ yard rushes (50), T-101 in 20+ yard rushes (11), T-90th in 30+ yard rushes (5). Quincy Skinner had one of the 20+ yard carries, too. The lack of explosiveness also shows up in yards per carry. The Commodore backs did not crack the top 100 highest averages for players with 50+ carries. The 100th highest average rusher was at 5.46. None of the Commodore RBs were over 4.5, which was AJ Newberry’s mark. The averages of Sedrick Alexander (3.6 YPC), Chase Gillespie (3.4 YPC), and Moni Jones (3.0 YPC) were all even worse. They are good backs at grinding out those averages more often than not then getting a 6-, 7-, or 8-yard gain to counter any shorter rushing attempts. They need to get more breakaway plays, and maybe the OL helps if they can clear more room. Sedrick Alexander was near the top of the league in yards after contact near the midpoint of last season even with the anemic YPC, but I cannot find any statistics for that publicly available.
Can a consistent WR opposite Junior Sherrill step up? Preseason All-American TE Eli Stowers led Vanderbilt in receptions (49) and receiving yards (638) last season. Sherrill had 29 catches, tied for 2nd most with Quincy Skinner Jr, and 411 receiving yards for standalone 2nd. Skinner was 3rd in yards, but he is gone now. Tre Richardson is D-II transfer with elite speed, but the SEC is a completely different beast than D-II when it comes to getting open and making plays. Pavia will have a familiar target in Trent Hudson, who seems most like a Skinner replacement with a similar build, but he only played 4 games for Mississippi State last season after transferring in from New Mexico State, where he caught 36 passes for 551 yards and 10 TDs from Pavia. Chance Fitzgerald also joins Vanderbilt from Virginia Tech, but he did not register any catches in either his freshman or sophomore seasons in Blacksburg. Beyond the transfers, the pass catching falls to improvements from some combination of Richie Hoskins, Joseph McVay, Tristen Brown, or a player who did not register any stats last season. Hoskins had 11 catches for 131 yards and 2 TDs. McVay had 1 catch for a 65-yard TD. Browns stat line was a meager 3 receptions for 27 yards. WR is the biggest concern I have with this roster, but it is possible that Richardson and Hudson show up and show out.
How impactful can Eli Stowers be? As noted above, he led the team in receptions and receiving yards in his first full season as a TE. He is getting rave reviews and draft talk, so all eyes (and defensive game plans) will be on him. Maintaining or expanding his explosive impact could take a lot of pressure off the WRs by giving them more space. Like most elite TEs, Stowers falls in the physical category where the typical LB is going to struggle to keep up with his speed and quickness while DBs are fighting uphill against his 6’4” and 235-pound frame.
What will Martel Hight bring to the offense? Hight has been an impressive CB for the Commodores. His athleticism with the ball in his hand on punt returns caught Jerry Kill’s eye, and he got permission to try Hight at WR. Clark Lea has bought in to it and said that Hight may well play 3 snaps in a row as a CB, punt returner, and WR. He is on a snap count in that they do not want to have him playing 110+ snaps per game like Travis Hunter did at Colorado. Lea has indicated the number may be around 70-80 snaps between all 3 phases, which probably means 10-15 snaps on offense. Hopefully, he is not needed more than that as other primary WRs make plays.
Can the pass defense stop getting burned? They let opposing QBs complete 68.1% of their passes and average 7.9 yards per attempt. Those ranked 131st and 105th in FBS. They were also in the 100s for passing plays of 10+ yards and 20+ yards allowed before getting down to T-19th in 30+ yard passing plays allowed. The roster losses in the secondary were cornerbacks Tyson Russell and CB Alan Wright along with safeties CJ Taylor, De’Rickey Wright, and Steven Sannieniola. None of them were particularly strong in coverage. The additions of Marlon Jones and Mark Davis, who both transferred to Vanderbilt before last season then missed due to illness and injury, respectively. Martel Hight, Jaylen Lackey, and, if you trust Clark Lea, Kolbey Taylor all being a year older should bring major dividends. Jordan Matthews also transferred in from Tennessee and could provide an improvement to depth at CB.
Does the run defense go from mediocre to stout? They were 76th in FBS in yards per rushing attempt allowed at 4.5 YPC. That is not horrible. It needs to be improved on some to reach the goals this team has set. The big loss from last season is De’Marion Thomas who led the DL in tackles at 34 and was generally disruptive. Aaron Bryant comes from Texas after only appearing in 4 games in 2024 and 7 games in 2023. At 6’2” and 320 pounds, he is still a very big body and being lost in the shuffle at Texas is not exactly an indictment with the absurd depth on their DL. The Dores also get back a healthy Zaylin Wood who had 7 tackles and a sack against Virginia Tech then suffered a season-ending injury in week 3. Everyone else, including the linebackers, is a year older and mature in Stiner’s strength and conditioning program that made the 2024 Commodores look worlds better physically than the 2023 edition.
Does special teams keep up its impact? When a team plays so many close games, the kicker and punter have to be on their game. Brock Taylor did not miss a FG attempt after the Missouri game. He was 5/6 from 50+ yards with a long of 57 against Missouri. Being able to reasonably expect points every time the offense gets to the +35-yard line, with points within reach at the +40, is a big deal. The concern will be replacing Jesse Mirco, who averaged 48.0 yards per punt with a 42.2 average net while having the ability to hit punts 60+ yards. Nick Haberer averaged 40.1 yards per punt in 2024, though he did hit for 42.8, 42.4, and 44.4 each season from 2021 to 2023. His net average was 40.1. His long punt for his career is 62, so he still has plenty of power in the leg. It will likely be a slight step back from the insane launches we saw from Mirco though.
What has changed schematically? On offense, the brain trust of Tim Beck and Jerry Kill are back. Nothing changes in play calling or planning on that side of the ball. Defensively, Clark Lea has backed off and left the playcalling to Steven Gregory, who apparently held those duties in the back half of 2024, too. Former Vanderbilt DC Bob Shoop is also back as a Senior Defensive Analyst, so it will be interesting to see if his aggressive, blitz-heavy philosophy will influence Gregory. On both sides of the ball, you have to expect some tweaks and adjustments. Stagnation is death, and these coaches should know that enough to find ways to adapt and grow, especially with so many returners who do not need to re-learn the basics of what was run last season.
Ultimately, how has and how will this team handle the spotlight? They stumbled down the stretch in 2024 after shocking the college football world by beating Alabama, but maybe that was due to injuries. The offseason saw most of the media hype die down until Any Given Saturday brought some fiery Diego Pavia comments to light. None of them were really surprising things for a fierce competitor to say before a game inside a locker room. The brash QB has made some podcast and media appearances, such as SEC media days, where he mentioned goals such as a national championship. The Commodores will have more eyes than usual on them, and this group has to stand up under the bright lights. They may have even more support than ever with the opener against Charleston Southern being touted as a sellout while only about 2,000 seats remain for sale on the secondary market. If they have let any of the hype effect their offseason preparation, they may have lost the war before the battle ever started.
