The Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers will face off for the National Championship in the College Football Championship National Championship Game at Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, January 19th at 7:30pm on ESPN.
The Hurricanes and Hoosiers have split
their two previous games from 1964 and 1966 with Miami winning the most recent contest 14-7. I wrote about the Hoosiers dominance over the Ducks in the Peach Bowl in part one of the series.The Doppler
The Indiana Hoosiers are 3rd in the country in Points Per Game
scoring 40.4 this season. The ‘Canes are 26th while scoring 30.6 PPG in ‘25. The Hoosiers offense is 3rd in points per play with 0.598, while Miami’s is 30th with 0.447.
Indiana’s defense is 2nd in FBS allowing only 11.9 PPG, while Miami’s defense is 5th and allowing only 14.8 PPG. IU and UM have similar points per play allowed numbers as the teams are 3rd (0.199) and 5th (0.223) in FBS, respectively.
Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winning QB for Indiana, has thrown 41 touchdowns with only six INT’s. Mendoza has averaged 9.5 yards per pass attempt this season and 11.08 adjusted YPPA. The mobile QB also rushed for six TD’s on 3.4 yards per carry.
Roman Hemby, Kaelon Black, and Khobie Martin have been quite the three-headed monster in the backfield for IU. Hemby was a 1,000 yard rusher with seven TD’s, Black rushed for 10 TD’s on 5.7 yards per carry, and Martin averaged 6.5 yards per carry with six scores of his own.
Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Surratt and Charlie Becker are also a triple threat out wide for IU. Cooper caught 13 TD’s, Surratt 15 TD’s and Becker hauled in four scores while averaging 20.5 yards per catch.
Indiana has a tough DL duo in Stephen Daley and Tyrique Tucker. Daley and Tucker combined for 30.5 TFL’s and 11 sacks. At LB, the Hoosiers have Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy. Those LB’ers had 30.5 TFL’s as well and 15 sacks combined in ‘25.
DB’s Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell logged 10 picks combined with 10 PBU’s. D’Angelo Ponds has two INT’s including the pick six vs. Oregon and a team high eight PBU’s this year.
Indiana has a strong kick and punt return game, a solid punter, and a clutch kicker. It will be hard to beat the Hoosiers in the kicking game, you just have to hope to neutralize them with a strong performance of your own.
The Film
With the Ducks also trying to win ball games in the trenches we’ll look at the regular season matchup between Oregon and Indiana, which the Hoosiers won by a more reasonable 30-20. Indiana was held to 5-of-15 on money downs while Oregon was 6-of-18.
Oregon had two turnovers, both INT’s from Moore, while Indiana had just the one interception. Indiana was flagged for 45 yards in penalties while Oregon was flagged for 64 yards.
The Indiana kickers finished 3-of-3 while Atticus Sappington was 2-of-3 vs IU.
THE INDIANA OFFENSE
Fernando Mendoza averaged only 6.9 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown and one pick. Mendoza added on 31 rushing yards including one sack from the Ducks.
Hemby scored twice on the ground on 3.7 yards per carry back in October. Black averaged 4.4 yards per carry vs. The Ducks and Oregon logged four TFL’s vs. IU.
Mendoza only hit four receivers back in the October version with two hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Surratt was dominant averaging 15.1 yards per catch with one score. Hemby also caught two balls for 25 yards. Cooper averaged only 8.3 yards per catch as Oregon tallied six PBU’s.
Above– Mendoza is reading the safety to the field. When he steps up like that, it’s an easy 1-on-1 outside to the WR Surratt.
Above– Now the throw by breaks the CB’s ankles and you can see the Safety still hasn’t recovered. Surratt catches the back shoulder dropout.
Above– Indiana isn’t some flawless outfit. Their guard gets bullied here for a sack and Miami has dominant DT’s in Moten and Scott.
Above– One thing to like about IU is how simple it all really is. The RB is going to read the ILB and cut off him, the line is just blocking this as inside zone. They’re an efficient program in every way.
Above– They do block well at the 2nd level. LB’ers are rarely an issue for their RB’s, and on defense IU’s LB’ers are hardly beat to the 3rd level.
Above– Remember the pass rush lane issues that can come up? Oregon gets both sets of E/T’s double stacked and the lane is WIDE OPEN for Mendoza. He’s not a run-first guy but he can run.
Above- Split zone works here and Oregon’s defender is in a horrible posture. That defender needs to scrape and buzz downhill into the gap, not wait to get steamrolled which is what he does.
Above- Patience and Vision. Oregon gets interior penetration and the IU RB goes slow-to, bounce and escapes.
Above– Mendoza is running an out-draw pass-run option. He’ll look to throw the ball first with the out and then take off on draw. You can see that when the LB runs with the out he then runs the football on draw.
Above- The Oregon DE isn’t fooled his eyes are up and he controls the outside shoulder turning this back inside and making the play himself. Here he has more help in than out so that makes sense to box it.
Above– Indiana wants to run Cristoball as much as Mario does. The Hoosiers will run 12 personnel and 13 personnel and pound inside and split zone at you inside the +5 yard line.
Above– Mendoza does make the occasional mistake like the Sayin Throw we discussed prior to OSU. Did Sayin make that Sayin Throw? Yes. Keionte Scott housed it and the rest is history. Mendoza does this at times, too. He throws a pick here on a late crosser that’s stepped in front of by Oregon for a pick 6.
Above– Another easy 1-on-1 read for Mendoza. IU likes to take shots in the red zone vs. the 20-20 and here’s one.
Above– There’s your 1-on-1 front pylon shot from the Hoosiers.
THE INDIANA DEFENSE
Dante Moore was held to only 5.5 yards per pass attempt with one TD and two picks vs. IU in October. Moore was sacked six times by the Hoosiers tenacious defense.
Oregon has been all over the place with the RB room. Jordon Davison, Noah Whittington and Jaydin Limar averaged 7.4, 5.4, and 5.7 yards per carry vs. IU without a score. The Hoosiers had eight TFL’s against the Ducks offense.
Moore found nine different Ducks receivers with three hitting the double-digit yards per catch number including Malik Benson’s one grab for 44 and a TD. Indiana came away with two PBU’s.
Above– Oregon opens the game with a play-action pass and not a soul is open on the 2nd hitch. The OL can only hold so long and Moore is sacked to open the game. The ball has to come out quick vs. IU.
Above– The 3over3 look on the screen is a 50/50 try. Oregon gets it to work early and I think Miami can with their smarter screen (false pull, Toney blocking, OL helping).
Above– Oregon gets the double handoff going and Miami needs new wrinkles to the Gadjit package with Toney. Let Toney handoff to Beck who hands to Daniels on the sweep with lead blockers.
Above– There’s a misperception about the wheel route. Most feel it has to be ran deep but it can be broken off if that’s where the space is. That RB should settle down in space and Moore should find him.
Above– Putting a RB on an Indiana DL or LB is a bold choice by Oregon. Mark Fletcher and Marty Brown will need the bulk of the reps over Girard Pringle because of pass pro and bully ball alone.
Above– Now that Beck is running a little more how about a naked boot with a hi/lo to a FB and WR? Get Indiana in a bind to pressure Beck and that’ll force them to leave the flats open.
Above– Indiana won’t fall for the same thing twice. Oregon tries their generic screen again and the Hoosiers LB rips over the OL and makes the stop.
Above– I do think Beck’s favorite Dig route is open, as well as things like Mesh and Stick… Shallow Cross with the hunt-dig. IU’s biggest weakness is ILB’s in coverage– so take advantage of it!
Above– If you’re going to run RPO’s Beck has to use more arm angles. He’s an easy bat-down and here as well as vs. Beck those can result in INT’s.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme was smack deers, don’t have unexplained fires. The three individual keys are:
1- Stop the run. I think it’s in Miami’s best interest to force Mendoza to throw the ball and run around, the opposite of Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambliss. When Mendoza starts running around he’s careless with the football and can both be stripped and at times throws a pick six of his own (think: Sayin, Julian).
2- Give Beck time. Miami isn’t going to beat Indiana by nickel and dime’ing their way down the field. Miami has to have deep shots and connect on them to guys like Daniels, Marion and Toney. You do that be giving Beck time on switch routes, Y-Cross and even tricks plays (the Flea Flicker works if it’s blocked up). If Beck is pressured, has to run around and is sacked four times again- it’s not a winning recipe vs. IU.
3- Win the sideline. Mario Cristobal needs to control himself and keep the chaos on the sidelines to a minimum. Does he have to coach all tight and scared? No. But having emotion is okay, being emotional isn’t. The players fed off of him in the Fiesta Bowl and saw a bad swing towards Ole Miss as Mario melted down. You can’t afford bad swings vs. the clear no.1 team in CFB.
Score Prediction: Indiana by 1. The Hoosiers aren’t flawless but they’re damn good. If anyone can beat them, it’s the white hot Miami Hurricanes. This is going to be a close game that comes down to 4th and short conversions, penalties, and kicking.
