Braves endeavor to earn series win in Elder-Early encounter

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 16: Atlanta pitcher Bryce Elder (55) pitches during the MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves on May 16th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images The quirks of MLB s

What is the story about?

The quirks of MLB scheduling are, well, quirky. The Braves only play the Red Sox six times over the course of the 2026 regular season, but because those games are 11 days apart, the pitching matchups can feel a bit repetitive.

Bryce Elder and Connelly Early didn’t square off against one another two weekends ago in Atlanta, but each did pitch in that series. Elder took the hill in the Braves’ sole loss, getting victimized by a turnaround two-run homer after being asked to wend his way through the Boston

order a fourth time for some reason. The Braves lost that game 3-2; Early pitched the day before, in a 3-2 Braves win. Now, they’ll face off against one another, as the Braves hope for another series victory over the Red Sox.

Elder’s pseudo-renaissance has been one of many positive stories for the Braves over the first two months of the 2026 season. His line now sits at 48/83/92 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) after 11 starts. That’s a marked improvement over any season he’s had to date, but the biggest change from his recent history is that he hasn’t been victimized by homers in the manner that they’ve plagued him earlier. While there are a lot of under-the-hood changes, the most impactful has been Elder shifting to less of a grounder-at-all-costs guy, which has either legitimately knocked down his HR/FB rate (because batters can no longer sit on a mislocated sinker or slider in the way they could before), or is just a mirage and things will normalize soon enough and maybe he’ll just look like the midrotation guy his peripherals suggested in years past. The latter is what has largely been on display in his last two starts, including the one against the Red Sox — he had a 3/0 K/BB ratio in eight frames with a costly, game-losing homer yielded in that one, and followed it up with another ho-hum-ish, 4/1 K/BB ratio, homer allowed in six innings against the Nationals. The balls were flying out of the yard at Fenway Park yesterday, so we’ll see what happens, but Elder’s path to success is clear. It’s just a matter of how much control he really has over whether he proceeds down it.

The story for Early was similar when he faced off against the Braves. He had a nice 6/0 K/BB ratio in five innings, but two of the Braves’ lefties (Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II) tagged Early for solo shots in a lefty-lefty matchup. Early’s line includes nine homers allowed over his last seven starts, including three multihomer games in that span. On the season, he has a 78/115/103 line, which is kind of reminiscent of Elder in a different point in time: awful in HR/FB terms, but somehow benefiting from run prevention he’s not really involved in anyway. Weird stuff. He’s had just two starts all season with an ERA above his FIP, and just three with an ERA above his xFIP. Thank his teammates’ good defense, I guess.