So it all comes down to this? After the Yankees dropped the last two games of their series against the Diamondbacks in the desert, the math is at least simple for the Yankees in their last-ditch Hail Mary: win all four games to flip the season series with the Rays to 7–6 in their favor, shrinking the division deficit to two games and securing the tiebreaker. Should such a miracle occur, then each team’s final series of the regular season comes into play (Phillies for the Rays, Orioles for the Yanks).
Anything less than a sweep, and the Rays will celebrate clinching the AL East on the Yankee Stadium infield.
Both offenses come in having played pretty well over their last 10 games. Even with Aaron Judge not doing much and then returning to the IL, the Yankees have averaged 5.4 runs per game, while the Rays have averaged 5.7 over that span. This series, much like the whole year, will of course not feature the Yankees’ captain. With postseason baseball right around the corner, there are no longer places to hide or excuses to be made.
After the offday for both clubs today, the bullpens will come in ready to handle the doubleheader on Tuesday and the following two games. The Rays have three standouts ready to roll in Bryan Baker, who has a major-league-leading 40 saves while posting a 1.49 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Right behind him, Kevin Kelly has made 68 appearances, tossing 72.0 innings while maintaining a 0.90 WHIP and a solid 2.49 ERA. Meanwhile, left-hander Cam Booser has provided 38.1 innings with an outstanding 42:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.78 WHIP on the year. Now let’s dive into the starting pitching matchups.
Tuesday, Game 1: Carlos Rodón vs. Nick Martinez (1:05 p.m. ET)
The Yankees will send Rodón out for game one of the doubleheader. Rodón has fully settled into his normal rhythm of ugly, but quality starts. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start all year long, though elbow inflammation cost him about seven weeks. Across 15 starts, he has delivered a sharp 2.95 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 76.1 innings, limiting opponents to a .178 batting average. Over his last three outings, Rodón has showcased his usual grind, allowing a total of just four earned runs over 17.1 innings while racking up 20 strikeouts.
Martinez takes the hill for the Rays to counter Rodón. The righty has quietly had a phenomenal campaign for Tampa Bay. Spanning 29 starts, he has an impressive 15-4 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 171.1 innings of work, all while walking only 24 batters all season. The journeyman was an All-Star for the first time in 2026 and won his most recent start on September 16th, throwing an efficient 72 pitches over five innings against the A’s. Martinez has given up five earned runs over his last three turns through the rotation and has been pulled with varying lower-pitch counts each time. Martinez’s primary weapon is a high-spin changeup that completely neutralizes left-handed bats.
Tuesday, Game 2: Max Fried vs. Drew Rasmussen (7:05 p.m. ET)
The Yankees hand the ball to another veteran lefty in Fried for the nightcap of the twin bill. Despite managing his workload (and bone bruise) carefully down the stretch to stay completely fresh for October, Fried’s “full”-season body of work has been spectacular. In 19 starts this season, he has pitched to a 2.63 ERA and a 0.981 WHIP, racking up 100 strikeouts over 106 frames while holding opponents to a meager .198 average. In his last two starts, Fried struggled against the Rockies (only allowing a run on one hit but needing 80 pitches to record 10 outs) before rebounding in Minnesota, going seven strong innings of one-run ball on September 15th.
Tampa Bay counters with their top guy in the right-handed Rasmussen to finish out the doubleheader. The 31-year-old has put together a great season for the Rays and is the most likely candidate to start Game 1 of a playoff series for them, logging a 15-5 record over 29 starts and a 2.72 ERA, a 0.925 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. Rasmussen is coming off a good performance against the A’s, firing five scoreless innings before being lifted with a comfortable 6-0 lead. Over his last three starts, he has surrendered just two earned runs in 19.0 innings. Rasmussen attacks hitters with a dose of high-velocity cutters and hard-sweeping sliders.
Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Ian Seymour* (7:05 p.m. ET)
The mid-week spotlight features the Cole train hoping to find the rails he and Scranton have both abandoned of late. On the year, Cole has a 9-9 record with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 123 strikeouts across 121.1 innings. Cole has been a bit volatile in his last three outings. He was tagged for five runs by the Mets on September 12th and four runs by the Padres on September 6th, but bounced back in his most recent start on September 18th in Arizona, firing six innings of four-hit, two-run ball with six strikeouts. Although Cole coughed up a combined seven long balls to the Mets and Padres, he at least kept the D-backs to one shot by Corbin Carroll. Aaron Boone has said that the old ace will get a playoff start, so it’s vital that he keeps the homers in check in his regular-season finale.
The Rays haven’t officially announced their Wednesday starter yet, but the next man in the rotation after Rasmussen is Seymour, and he would be on normal rest. The lefty from Madison, Connecticut has compiled a 9-7 record with a 4.38 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. Over his last three starts, he struck out 10 in a six-inning performance against Houston on September 12th, but was touched up for four runs by Boston on September 18th and three runs by Texas on September 6th. Seymour leads with a low-90s four-seam fastball that plays up due to a unique extension and arm slot, paired with a good changeup and a sweeping slider.
Thursday: Cam Schlittler vs. Freddy Peralta* (7:05 p.m. ET)
Schlittler has gone from a rising young fan favorite to the runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Over a sample size of 32 starts, Schlittler has thrown 190.2 innings and posted a stellar 1.94 ERA (ranking second in MLB) alongside a 0.91 WHIP (third in MLB) and 234 strikeouts against an unfair .184 opponent batting average. Schlittler has not given up more than a single earned run in a start since August 3rd. Here is to hoping Schlittler has another few amazing starts left in store for us in 2026. What a season! This will be his final tune-up before the playoffs.
The Rays are on track to wrap up the series by sending the veteran right-hander Peralta to the hill to counter Schlittler. Since coming over to the Rays at the 2026 Trade Deadline following a regrettable short stint with the Mets, he is throwing his changeup more and is showing a change in arm angle. On the year, he has a 9-11 record, a 4.56 ERA, a 1.335 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 158 innings. In his last three outings, he allowed one run over 5.2 innings against Boston on September 19th, spun five scoreless against Houston on September 13th, and gave up just four hits and a run over six innings in Atlanta on September 8th. That computes for a superb 1.08 ERA over his last 16.2 innings. Nicknamed “Fastball Freddy,” Peralta features a delivery that makes his mid-90s four-seam fastball almost pop into view for hitters. He relies heavily on that fastball, pairing it with a sweeping slider and that aforementioned fading changeup.
*Starter not yet finalized
