The Los Angeles Rams enter Week 3 looking to build on their dominant 28-6 victory over the New York Giants. After splitting the first two games of the season, the Rams now face a Denver Broncos team that presents challenges on both sides of the football.
With Puka Nacua expected to miss another game, the Rams will once again need players throughout the offense to step into larger roles. Terrance Ferguson could be one of the most important pieces in that equation.
Offensive Key to Victory: Maintain Terrance Ferguson’s Volume
Ferguson showed in Week 2 that he can
be more than a complementary piece in Sean McVay’s offense. With Nacua sidelined, the second-year tight end caught six of nine targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. He also finished the game with a 29% target share, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
That performance should encourage the Rams to continue looking for ways to get Ferguson involved against Denver. One of Ferguson’s biggest advantages is the matchup problem he can create for opposing defenses. If the Broncos counter with a linebacker, Ferguson has the athletic ability to attack that defender vertically or create separation underneath. If Denver puts a smaller cornerback on him, the Rams can use Ferguson’s size and physicality to their advantage.
His versatility also allows McVay to move him around the formation. Ferguson ran 40% of his snaps from the slot against the Giants and received seven targets from that alignment, including his touchdown.
The absence of Nacua creates an obvious need for the Rams’ other skill-position players to increase their production. Davante Adams demonstrated that in Week 2, but the offense shouldn’t rely on one receiver to replace Nacua’s production. Ferguson is the guy to fill that void.
The Rams don’t necessarily need to force-feed him the football, but maintaining the type of volume he saw against New York could make him an important part of the game plan.
Defensive Key to Victory: 30% or less on 3rd down conversions
Right now, the Broncos offense is 29th in the NFL for third down conversion with just 26.1%. If the Rams defense can continue a similar trend of 30% or less, they should put themselves in position to win the game.
The Rams defense allowed a 58.3% third down conversion in Week 1. They managed to drop that to 21.4% in Week 2 against the Giants. The defense clearly operated a different level in their MNF showing; putting together a strong 4 quarters because they got off the grass when they needed to more often than not.
Neutralizing Sean Payton’s offense (even though Davis Webb is the OC) will allow Sean McVay to get his offense back on the field and work Denver’s defense. With this game expected to be in the mid-to-low 20s, the more times that Sean McVay’s offense has the ball and can attack Denver’s defense – the more likely LA wins.
