The Basics
Team: Duke Blue Devils
Location: Durham, NC
Enrollment: 6,523
Head Coach: Manny Diaz (36-24)
Record: 6-5 (5-2)
Wins: Elon, NC State, Syracuse, Cal, Clemson, UNC
Losses: Illinois, Tulane, GT, UConn, UVA
Transfer portal rank: 63 (1 4-star, 8 3-stars)
The Deacs have a pretty big game this weekend against in-state rival Duke with some pretty big implications for both teams—Duke can keep their ACC Championship Game hopes alive with a win (they will still need a lot of help to get there) and Wake can get to 9
wins for the 4th time in program history with a shot at the 3rd 10 win season ever with a victory. The good news for the Deacs is that with the game being a few days after Thanksgiving, there’s a pretty good chance that the home crowd will be pretty sparse on Saturday (Duke is literally giving away tickets).
Offense
Points per game: 33.3 (31st)
Yards per game: 425.4 (32nd)
Run/pass split: 46 / 54
Rush yards per game: 134 (92nd)
Pass yards per game: 291.3 (12th)
3rd down conversions: 40% (74th)
Sacks allowed per game: 2.1 (86th)
Turnovers per game: 1.1 (54th)
The Duke offense is centered around QB Darian Mensah, who was considered one of the top prospects in the transfer portal last offseason. The Blue Devils have certainly gotten their money’s worth, as Mensah has completed 67% of his passes this season and leads the ACC with 3,182 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns—those numbers put him at 5th in the nation in passing yards per game and 6th in the nation in touchdown passes. Despite attempting 389 passes this season, Mensah has thrown just 4 interceptions all year, making him the 8th best QB in the nation at avoiding turnovers. It should be pretty obvious by now that Mensah is a huge threat in the passing game, and probably a top 5 QB in the nation this season.
His main target this season has been Harvard transfer Cooper Barkate, who will play both in the slot and out wide. Barkate is currently 3rd in the ACC with 895 receiving yards and tied for 1st with 6 receiving touchdowns this season. At 6-1, he is not the most physically gifted receiver the Deacs have faced this season, but he is a great route runner with a degree from Harvard—something tells me he will figure out how to get open.
The Blue Devils also have a solid weapon in RS sophomore Que’Sean Brown, who has caught 49 passes for 614 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. At 5-8, he is very comparable to Wake’s Chris Barnes, using his speed and elusiveness to make up for his smaller stature. He will typically work in the middle of the field from the slot, but he is a big-time threat on fade routes against man-to-man defense.
This should be a very interesting matchup, because Duke currently has a top 10 passing offense in the nation per opponent adjusted EPA/play, while the Deacs have a top 10 passing defense in the nation by the same metric. This is a classic case of the unstoppable force vs the immovable object, and whichever one comes out on top is probably going to win the game.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 29.2 (100th)
Yards allowed per game: 409.8 (108th)
Rush yards allowed per game: 142.4 (56th)
Pass yards allowed per game: 267.5 (129th)
3rd down defense: 46% (127th)
Sacks per game: 2.1 (62nd)
Turnovers Forced per game: 1.4 (57th)
On defense, the Blue Devils have been much worse this season—Duke is currently 13th in the ACC in scoring defense, giving up 29.2 points per game. A large part of that is due to their secondary, which is one of the worst in the nation. The Blue Devils are currently allowing opponents to complete 69% of their passes (133rd out of 136) for 267.5 yards per game (129th) this season. Those numbers have gotten even worse recently—over their last 4 games, Duke has allowed opponents to complete 71% of their passes for 305.3 yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Those games include a 1-point win over Clemson (6-5), a 3-point loss to UConn (9-3), a 17-point loss to UVA (9-2), and 7-point win over UNC (4-7).
Now, in the past I have said that the opponent’s ability to defend the pass, or lack thereof, didn’t really matter because the Deacs had been completely incapable of throwing the ball down the field at all this season. However, in the past couple of games, Robby Ashford has been pretty solid, completing 63% of his passes for 483 yards and 4 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Those games were against some pretty bad secondaries, with UNC ranking 87th in EPA/Play against the pass and Delaware ranking 120th, but guess who comes in right in between the two? That’s right, the Duke Blue Devils, who sit at 94th. Ashford doesn’t need to be perfect, but if he can continue to play the way he has the past couple of weeks and just get the ball into the hands of the Wake Forest playmakers down the field, the Deacs should be able to find success in the passing game.
One guy to watch out for on the Duke defensive line is senior defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr. At 6-6, Anthony has the combination of size and speed that NFL teams love, and he’s currently 4th in the ACC with 6.5 sacks on the year.
Anthony started the season off on a tear with 5 sacks in the first 3 games of the season, including 3 against Illinois. Since then, he has just 1.5—all against Cal—in Duke’s 8 other games. Still, he has proven he can be a big-time threat rushing the passer, so Wake needs to make sure they keep him away from Ashford as much as possible.
The Blue Devils are a little better against the run, coming in at 75th in EPA/Play. Duke has given up over 150 yards on the ground 7 times this season, and they are allowing 164 rushing yards per game (4.9 ypc) and 9 rushing touchdowns over their last 4 games. This will Demond Claiborne’s final regular season game as a Demon Deacon, so it would be great to see him have a big-time performance to help lead Wake over one of their rivals. I’ve harped on it all year, but this offense is just so much better when they can actually run the ball.
This is a pretty even matchup across the board—the Blue Devils have an amazing passing attack and a pretty bad overall defense, while the Deacs have an amazing passing defense and a pretty bad overall offense. A game like that could come down to miscues and special teams, so Wake needs to win the turnover battle. It wouldn’t hurt if Carlos Hernandez or Chris Barnes decided to score another special teams touchdown.
Go Deacs!
