Dedicated Astros fans have been waiting all offseason for a big move and it looks like they get one as a New Year’s gift. It has been reported in multiple outlets that the Astros are in agreement with
Japanese phenom Tatsuya Imai on a three year contract with opt outs after the first and second season. Reports are that the deal will be in the neighborhood of 3 years and 63 million dollars (21 million per season).
Obviously, details are just coming in and there is always conflicting reports as to details of contracts. However, multiple outlets are reporting the deal is done. Imai was one of the biggest imports on the board and given the Astros lack of quality rotation depth, the signing is a huge move that could pay huge dividends in 2026.
Given the nature of social media and the presence of clickbait, I never get too excited until I see news reported on reputable outlets. I hate to champion any source that isn’t us, but Major League Baseball Trade Rumors is my go to source to confirm anything. They are reporting slightly different contract details than Passan initially reported. They have the deal as 54 million with incentives being added.
Imai had a career best 1,92 ERA last season in Japan. Obviously, statistics in all foreign leagues are not exactly directly portable to the big leagues, but there have been a number of very successful Japanese imports on the mound and Imai is set to have the second highest AAV of any pitcher to come over from Japan.
The deal is a surprise as the Astros were not listed as one of the most likely teams to sign him. However, the club has reportedly been scouting him since his high school days. Imai has a 58-45 record in NPB with a career 3.15 ERA in that league. He has a 66-49 record in all foreign leagues with a sparkling 3,07 ERA. Last season, he threw 163.2 innings and added 178 strikeouts in those innings.
Steamer projects the 27 year old right hander to go 8-9 in 148.0 innings with a 4.29 ERA. Obviously, those projections were calculated before it was known where Imai would land. Given the Astros penchant for getting the most out of their pitchers, it wouldn’t be hard to project that Imai would come in better than those projections.
Obviously, all contracts of this size come with some ramifications. It has largely been reporting that the Astros were somewhere between 20 and 25 million below the tax exemption status. So, this deal would appear to be the end of their big spending for the offseason. Dana Brown has publicly commented that they need a backup catcher and bullpen help. It would appear that they would need to be creative to add those things AND stay under the tax threshold.
However, fans have been clamoring for someone to take the spot that Framber Valdez is vacating. The Astros have countered with Mike Burrows, Imai, and Ryan Weiss. None of them will give you the 200 innings that Framber did, but maybe in concert they can be enough to fill the gap he is leaving behind. It is hard to say the Astros pitching is completely fixed, but this move certainly puts a huge dent into it. Stay tuned for more commentary as we digest this move in more detail as more details become available.
