If you love rock-em-sock-em wars, the last Detroit Pistons series was for you. The Cleveland Cavaliers are not as physical as the Orlando Magic. We may not get a Hagler-Hearns collision in Round 2, but Cleveland presents other challenges.
Cade Cunningham had his playoff coming-out party against the Magic. He will be the best player in this series too, and if his jumper continues to fall, he could play even better. There’s no doubt Jalen Duren wants to have a bounce-back series, and there are signs
that he could.
JB Bickerstaff goes head-to-head with his former team. Of course, Cleveland has different schemes and players, but Bickerstaff should know Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley’s tendencies like the back of his hand.
Game vitals
Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI
When: 7:00 PM EST
Watch: Peacock/NBC
Odds: Pistons (-3.5)
Analysis
The Cavaliers are coming off a grueling 7-game series with the Toronto Raptors. Toronto had the fifth-ranked defense in the regular season. They and Detroit play a similar brand of fly-around defense.
Detroit is the superior rim-protecting team and has better perimeter defenders. We saw how much trouble Scottie Barnes and Jamal Shead gave the Cavs backcourt.
It’s not far-fetched to assume Ausar Thompson, Cade Cunningham, and the other stout perimeter defenders can make it tough for James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
Detroit can make it tough, but that is still a lot of firepower. Harden or Mitchell are capable of getting it going after slow starts, so the attention on them cannot waver.
Mitchell in particular is due for a good series. He’s risen in the playoffs historically (27.8 PPG, 7th all-time), but he also has some stinkers. He’s a lot to handle when the shotmaking gets going, but if anybody can make him struggle in back-to-back series, it is Ausar.
Continuing to stay out of foul trouble will be major for the future Defensive Player of the Year. Ausar only had a 2.3 foul percentage (91 percentile) against Orlando compared to 7.4 (3rd percentile) against the Knicks last year. He is the defense-to-offense king, and staying out of foul trouble keeps him on the floor. They’ll need him for closer to 35 minutes per game. He may take some Harden minutes, and Harden is a historic foul drawer.
Harden will always have a dogged defender on his bumper. He may not have the burst he once had, but he is still a PnR maestro and a laser shooter. Harden makes the game easier for their bigs and role players. He can make every pass in the book, and the Cavalier shooters relish sharing the floor with him. Detroit cannot sag off this point guard as they did with Jalen Suggs.
Cleveland’s bigs were a bit more impressive than the guards in some pockets of the last series. Jarrett Allen had a double-double in the third quarter alone in Game 7. Mobley approached the series with more scoring aggression, and his long-range shot was falling (39% on 3.3 3PA).
It’s on Isaiah Stewart and Duren to take away their basketball spirit. We have seen Allen say the playoff lights were too bright. Mobley has disappeared in a series before. Granted Mobley was younger, but these Pistons are certainly the best paint-defense Allen and Mobley have seen on this stage. Take them away and force the guards to create vs a set defense.
On the other side of the ball, Cleveland’s frontcourt is lengthier than Orlando’s, but they don’t play with the same physicality. Cleveland has not shown that they have crisp enough rotations to tag and grab Duren on every roll as Orlando did.
Duren may or may not be his regular-season self in this matchup, but Cleveland is more favorable than Orlando. There are two 7-footers in Cleveland, but maybe physicality can mitigate the height difference a bit. The PnR with Cade may be there a bit more since there is no Suggs flying around causing chaos.
Cade was the big man on campus last series. Orlando has more premier perimeter defenders than Cleveland. The Cavs’ go-to stoppers are Dean Wade and Jaylon Tyson. Two very good defenders, but Cade has seen every type of coverage at this point and is a man on a mission. He is going to get his and be him in this matchup.
Role players
Daniss Jenkins found some much-needed rhythm in Game 7. Carry some of that over because Detroit’s offense is more lethal when he makes open shots. Duncan Robinson had highs and lows, but his shooting will be needed as Cleveland has snipers.
Sam Merrill is one of the best pure shooters in the series. He is a mover that the Pistons chasers cannot leave. Tyson only shot 35 percent from 3 vs Toronto, but he is not a role player who you dare to shoot either.
Cleveland has the shooting advantage all around. 42 percent of their playoff shots have been 3s compared to 33 percent for Detroit. Cleveland’s backcourt has off-the-bounce juice, and other role players like Max Strus hit shots. Detroit has a bit more self-creation from its role players.
Tobias Harris was cooking the Magic. He made pivotal shots and was a safety blanket for Detroit’s offense. Can he average over 20 points again? That is asking a lot, but if Duren and Jenkins are better, Detroit won’t be so dependent on its 15-year veteran. Harris will still be a bailout option and may have a favorable matchup if Cleveland elects to stick Mobley on Ausar so Mobley can roam.
Dennis Schröder is one of Cleveland’s self-creating role players Pistons fans know very well. He can be impactful if Kenny Atkinson presses that button. He only played about 14 minutes a game against Toronto, so it will be interesting to see how much run he gets against a team he helped in the offs last year.
Cleveland has the better offense, more star power, but questionable basketball character. Detroit has the defensive infrastructure to do even better than Toronto and an MVP-caliber first option (Barnes was amazing, but Cade is a different animal).
Detroit should view the Cavs as punkable. Bickerstaff had a front row seat to those Cavs postseason flameouts. He knows how and why his former players shrank.
The game plan devised will note every single micro detail on guys like Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen. Film already shows you players’ tendencies, but being with players for over two years reveals tendencies that film can’t show.
The Magic started strong, punching Detroit in the nose in Game 1. The Pistons cannot let that happen again against a team with more firepower. Set the tone early and hold down homecourt. You won 60 games for a reason.
Lineups
Detroit Pistons (0-0): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Cleveland Cavaliers (0-0): James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Question of the day
Does Ron Holland get more burn in this series to slow down one of the Cavs guards?
