Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today we look at a fading star who has been linked to the Sox this offseason.
Who is he and where does he play?
He’s 34-year-old catcher J.T. Realmuto, of Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins fame. Perhaps you missed this one once the news of the Sonny Gray deal came across the wire, but the Red Sox were linked to another (former)
member of the National League on Tuesday. Ken “Bowtie Boy” Rosenthal and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reported word from their #sources…
…that Realmuto has caught the attention of Boston’s front office in the early days of free agency. The Interest Kings strike again.
I dunno about you, dear reader, but this report caught me a bit off guard! The quote in T’s tweet above is right: I don’t think anyone was pinning the position of catcher as a top priority for the Sox this winter. Carlos Narvaez’s first year behind the dish was impressive as he established himself as one of the game’s top defensive backstops while flashing some pop from time to time. Connor Wong was……….well, he was a player on the team, but I personally felt OK about the position moving forward—at least with regards to who would be starting at catcher more often than not.
Still, it’s tough to argue with the merits of Realmuto’s resume.
Is he any good?
Didn’t I just mention his resu….y’know what, whatever. Yes, he’s solid.
Known for his keen ability to get aboard and some respectable pop on offense in his prime along with his ability to mow runners down on defense, J.T. is a three-time All-Star with a pair of both Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers. Even while well into his 30’s, he boasts elite pop times year in and year out when trying to hose runners down (he has never been within worse than the ninety fifth [95th] {!!!!!!!!} percentile in that metric since tracking on Savant began in 2015, which was his first full season in the majors) and he has consistently ranked within the league’s top tiers of catchers when it comes to Caught Stealing Over Average (he was just in the, again, 95th percentile there in 2025).
He’s been a pretty bad framer in recent years (just the 4th percentile there this past years), but maybe the ABS system will help mitigate those concerns. His blocking has also taken a nosedive over the past two seasons, as he’s been ranked in no better than the 20th percentile there as of late. Nothing any rule changes can do on that front for him, unfortunately.
Tl;dr, just give me his 2025 stats.
134 G, 129 H, 12 HR, 26 2B, 23.5% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, .257/.315/.384, 91 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR
Show me a cool highlight.
For the serious-minded folks: his cycle effort a few years back. For the meme-centric thinker, well, I’m sure you already know what’s coming.
What would he cost?
Think of a contract along the lines of two years at $30 million (as MLB Trade Rumors projected) or three years at $45 million (as Bowtie Boy’s publication predicted). So, $15M AAV or so is a good jumping off point.
Smash or pass?
Pretty simple and plain pass from me.
It’s not that I think Realmuto’s a bad player (although I have my concerns—some outlined already, some to come). He’s not bad. A guy with a 2.5 bWAR in 2025 and nearly 40 bWAR over the course of about a decade ain’t typically the sign of a bad player.
Yet to me, this is a classic instance of a square peg who would be asked to fill in a round hole. To reiterate: catcher should not be seen as a priority this winter. Could we improve the situation behind Narv? Yeah, we could. But doing so by inking Realmuto to a deal would be overkill. I think there are other avenues to give you that backup option that wouldn’t result in that much of a financial commitment. I must add my obligatory “the Red Sox should not be penny pinchers” comment here, but the fact is that there are other improvements to be made on the roster—adding more to the rotation’s ceiling even in the wake of the Gray trade, a corner infield bat or a legitimately horrifying hitter to slot in at DH, whatever floats your boat—that the effort of flexing our financial might would be better suited for.
But even if money was no object, I don’t think that Realmuto should be the apple of our eye here, folks. I already outlined some of the defensive shortcomings—shortcomings which I can’t imagine will significantly improve after he turns 35 in March. I could live with some of those faults in his game if the bat was doing enough talking, but I also don’t think that’s going to get better anytime soon.
After his bat speed was around the 70th percentile in 2023 and 2024, J.T.‘s ranking in that metric went down to the 47th percentile in 2025. His .316 xwOBA and 8.8% barrel rate last year were his worst on a percentile basis since the 2016 season, while his .405 expected slug was his worst in that regard since 2021. His 91 OPS+ in ‘25 was his career worst over the course of a full season. His OBP has dropped each year, save for 2022, since the COVID-shortened season. His home run tally, slugging percentage, and OPS have all dropped each year following that ‘22 campaign.
Keep in mind: these figures were all while he was playing half of his games at the Little League sandbox that is Citizens Bank Park in Philly, while he had a generally talented lineup (a pennant-winning lineup at that) surrounding him.
Sure, Realmuto might be able to take some reps over at first base if you feel so inclined. But then again: doesn’t that take some of the bite out of what should be one of your best offensive positions in the lineup? And if he signs for about $15 million per year, aren’t you in a position where you almost have to be starting him behind the plate the majority of the time? Both of those scenarios don’t interest me, frankly.
I could grant you the idea that Realmuto may have a bit left in the tank. I don’t think he’s dust. But it’s the wrong player for the wrong team at the wrong time and at the wrong price. This doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, frankly. I’m sure J.T. will get a nice pay day; I just highly doubt that it will come with a signature from John Henry, nor do I think it should.
Now stop procrastinating online and get going on that holiday cookin’, ya turkey.
