Elephant Rumblings: Kurtz, Wilson rookie seasons in context

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Happy Friday, Athletics Nation!

Have the A’s ever had a rookie duo as potent as first baseman Nick Kurtz and shortstop Jacob Wilson have been this season? Not that I can recall. Kurtz may have the AL ROY award essentially locked up at this point, but Wilson has been remarkable in his own right and is having a season that compares favorably to most of the A’s ROY winners from years past.

Wilson was the A’s first round draft pick in 2023 and made his MLB debut last year, while Kurtz was the A’s 2024

first rounder and didn’t arrive in the big leagues until April 23 of this season. So Jacob got off to a big head start and was already creating a sensation, batting .337 through 86 plate appearances by the time of Nick’s comeuppance. Fun fact: Wilson had yet to log a single base on balls at that point—yet he had already established himself as a huge ROY favorite.

J Willy managed to top Bobby Witt Jr. in the All-Star vote, earning him the honor of starting at shortstop for the AL in the Midsummer Classic. But by that time, Wilson’s bat had cooled off a bit and Kurtz was becoming all the rage; he’d already hit 17 home runs through 235 plate appearances and seemed to be getting better with each passing week. Wilson has his game back on track now: he’s batted .358 since returning from a much-needed stint on the IL and is once again in a race against Aaron Judge for the best batting average in MLB.

Kurtz is putting together a truly special rookie campaign—and we’ll examine how it stacks up against those of previous A’s ROY winners momentarily. But were these two young stars’ rookie seasons to unfold a season apart rather than coincide, the A’s could very well have consecutive winners. So let’s include Wilson in our comparison with former A’s who have already won hardware.

Here is a list of every Athletics ROY winner and their rookie season value in terms of fWAR:

Harry Byrd, RHP: 3.5 fWAR (1952)
Jose Canseco, OF: 2.9 fWAR (1986)
Mark McGwire, 1B: 5.1 fWAR (1987)
Walt Weiss, SS: 2.8 fWAR (1988)
Ben Grieve, OF: 1.5 fWAR (1998)
Bobby Crosby, SS: 2.6 fWAR (2004)
Huston Street, RHP: 1.7 fWAR (2005)
Andrew Bailey, RHP: 2.3 fWAR (2009)

As of this morning, Kurtz is at 4.3 fWAR, Wilson 3.1 fWAR with 15 games left to play this season. So they have both already topped all but two of these ROY winners: Harry Byrd of yore, and Mark McGwire. Big Mac clearly had the most impressive rookie season of them all, setting a rookie home run record that stood for 30 years. Kurtz has a shot at besting the A’s all-time home run leader’s rookie season in terms of player value by season’s end. But even if that doesn’t happen, consider that Nick got off to a late start and has only stood for 427 plate appearances, while McGwire had a full season with 641 PAs. Phenomenal, indeed.

The A’s had three consecutive ROY winners in the eighties and won their last World Series Championship the following season. Will the concentrated influx of young talent we’re seeing today produce a similar result? Time will tell.

Have a wonderful weekend, AN.