Matthew Stafford was the 13th consecutive quarterback to win the AP Most Valuable Player after bringing it home for the Los Angeles Rams in 2025. The last time a non-QB won was Adrian Peterson with his superhuman season in 2012. It’s a quarterback award for the most part these days, and the list of recent winners is littered with some of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen.
After putting up those big years, though, how did those last 12 quarterbacks fare in their follow-up effort? Is it at
all predictive for what could be in store for Matthew Stafford? Let’s dive into the data.
2013 MVP – Peyton Manning
After missing the 2011 season due to his neck injury, Manning arrived in Denver with a bang in 2012, but it was the 2013 Broncos season that earned Manning his fifth MVP honor. One year later, in 2014, Manning was still undeniably good, throwing for 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns in a Pro Bowl campaign, but the signs of decline were starting to creep in. He’d retire after winning Super Bowl 50 in the 2015 season when his decline was at its nadir.
2014 MVP – Aaron Rodgers
There was a legitimate argument for J.J. Watt to win the award this year, but Rodgers pulled it out for his second MVP with another hyper productive and exceptionally efficient year. In 2015 things sputtered a little for Rodgers and the Packers offense, though they still won a playoff game and Rodgers reached the Pro Bowl. We’re nowhere near done with him on this list.
2015 MVP – Cam Newton
Cam Newton was phenomenal in 2015, leading the Panthers to a 15-1 record and their second-ever Super Bowl appearance, although his performance in that game is still criticized to this day. He never reached those heights again, with no more Pro Bowls or any other honors in the remainder of his career. In fact, his 2016 season was the least productive healthy season in Carolina, throwing for just 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, going 6-8 as a starter and missing the playoffs.
2016 MVP – Matt Ryan
Everyone knows how this season ended for Ryan and the Falcons, but he was exceptional on his way to winning MVP. After Kyle Shanahan departed following Super Bowl 51 to become the head coach of the 49ers, Ryan stumbled production-wise, posting his lowest yardage total since 2010 and fewest touchdowns (20) since his rookie season. He remained productive for the remainder of his career but never got close to his MVP campaign again.
2017 MVP – Tom Brady
Tom Brady won his third and final MVP in 2017, racking up big-time numbers through the air yet again. He followed it up by winning the Super Bowl the following season. We don’t need to rehash any more about that particular accomplishment.
2018 MVP – Patrick Mahomes
In his first season as a starter, Mahomes took the league by storm when he won the MVP award in 2018. He threw for a league-high 50 touchdowns and nearly 5,100 yards for one of the best offenses in league history. Defense cost the Chiefs in the long run as they melted down in the AFC Championship Game that year, but he battled back to win the Super Bowl the next season.
2019 MVP – Lamar Jackson
Another quarterback in his first full season as a starter, Jackson similarly put the league on notice right away like Mahomes did, although did so with a very good campaign throwing the ball and a historic one rushing it. He dropped off a bit in 2020, though, missing even a Pro Bowl and passing for 12 fewer touchdowns, and the Ravens only scored three points in a divisional round loss to the Bills.
2020 MVP – Aaron Rodgers
After putting up good numbers and an NFC title game appearance in his first season with Matt LaFleur as his play caller, Rodgers and the Packers offense exploded in 2020. He completed nearly 71% of his passes that season and posted a league-best 48 touchdown passes. How did he follow that up? Well…
2021 MVP – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers became the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in over a decade, since Peyton Manning did it in 2008 and 2009. The raw numbers weren’t quite as gaudy for Rodgers in ’21 as they were in ’20, but he still led the league in TD%, INT% and passer rating, although Green Bay’s offense collapsed and went one-and-done in the playoffs, the second time it had done that in a Rodgers MVP season (2011).
2022 MVP – Patrick Mahomes
For as good as he was in 2018, there’s a real argument to be made Mahomes’s most impressive season was 2022, fresh off losing Tyreek Hill (and all the narratives that followed that) and figuring out how to go from high-flying offense to brutal efficiency machine in the face of seeing increased split-safety looks. Mahomes hasn’t reached these statistical heights in the last few seasons, but he did follow and MVP and a Super Bowl in the 2022 season with another ring the following year.
2023 MVP – Lamar Jackson
This was the second MVP for Jackson, who by this point had proven to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when it comes to creating big plays while limiting turnovers, while still making big plays with his legs (although not as many as his early days). Jackson was the first-team All-Pro pick in 2024 fresh off this MVP season, but didn’t actually win the award again.
2024 MVP – Josh Allen
In one of the most hotly contested MVP debates in years, possibly since Rodgers vs. Watt in 2014, Allen edged out Jackson to win the honor for the first time, and deservedly so (both had extremely strong cases). Allen was quite good in his follow-up effort in 2025, still getting a Pro Bowl nod and finishing third in MVP voting behind Stafford and Drake Maye, although he threw for fewer yards and fewer touchdowns while the Bills won fewer games than they did in 2024.
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There isn’t much predictive value here, although it’s fair to point out there aren’t a ton of similarities between where Stafford sits now and the MVPs who immediately fell off. Newton’s game was always going to have high variance due to passing accuracy issues, and Ryan’s play caller changed. Stafford’s arm has been more trustworthy throughout his career and Sean McVay is obviously still calling the shots for the Rams’ offense.
If you’re looking for the best-case scenario, though, consider this: Three of the quarterbacks on this list were 37 (Stafford’s age when he won his MVP or older). The next season for each of them? Rodgers (37) won another MVP, Brady (40) won the Super Bowl, Manning (37) threw for over 4,700 yards with 39 touchdowns and the Broncos won their division.
Not the worst set of potential set of outcomes for an older MVP.
