Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Waldo Stadium — Kalamazoo, MI
- Spread: North Texas (-9.5)
- Over/under: 56.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
We weren’t treated to a single matchup between these conferences last season. This is Western Michigan’s first-ever matchup against an American Conference opponent since the league rebranded from the Big East in 2013. It’s only North Texas’ second MAC matchup in 12 years of the College Football Playoff era, with its only other one transpiring in a 2021 bowl game vs. Miami (OH).
Completely unfamiliar opponents with different cardinal directions in their names are both looking to break through in 2025.
North Texas is eager for its first winning season since 2018, while Western Michigan eyes its first since 2021.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas handled business in Week 1, writing a check to FCS program Lamar for a 51-0 warm-up.
The Mean Green saw exactly what they wanted to, destroying their opponent 462-119 in the yardage department and refraining from frequent penalties. As usual, North Texas’ offense looks like a juggernaut. Even in the midst of a losing stretch in the 2020s, the Mean Green have never wavered in offensive firepower. North Texas ranked 3rd, 6th, 21st, 40th, and 8th in total offense through the first half of this decade, and trend could persist after an explosion in the opener.
North Texas places its trust in quarterback Drew Mestemaker, whose intriguing story generated headlines last January. The First Responder Bowl was his first start at quarterback since ninth grade, and he thrived in that opportunity with 393 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 55 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown. Mestemaker proved he’s more than a one-game wonder, outlasting Miami (FL) transfer Reese Poffenbarger in a fall camp battle and producing an efficient 329 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener.
Head coach Eric Morris is a Mike Leach and air raid disciple, and North Texas will inflict most of its damage through the air. Mestemaker built strong rapport with a slew of weapons in Week 1, with Cameron Dorner (7 receptions, 98 yards, 1 TD) and Wyatt Young (4 receptions, 97 yards, 2 TD) leading the charge. Miles Coleman and Simeon Evans are other receivers Western Michigan should be wary of as Mestemaker looks for his third 300-yard outing in three collegiate starts.
North Texas attempted 41 rushes in the opener, but the Mean Green were unable to get their feature back going. Makenzie McGill II finished with one yards on six attempts and looks for a bounce-back Week 2 showing. Kiefer Sibley should provide support in a run game spearheaded by veteran center Gabe Blair, who returns after missing the majority of 2024.
Despite the Mean Green’s recent offensive success, defense is what’s kept them from breaking above .500. In the past five years, North Texas ranked 128th, 133rd (last), 121st, 68th, and 128th (last) in total defense. But there is a different vibe in Denton, TX after the arrival of former Sam Houston defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity — the architect of the Bearkats’ turnaround from 3-9 to 10-3 last season. Cassity’s defense pitched a shutout in the 2025 opener, holding the FCS foe to 1.1 yards per rush and 3.3 yards per pass.
The features five of Cassity’s Sam Houston transfers in starting roles, ranging from middle linebacker Trey Fields to defensive linemen Briceon Hayes and Richard Outland II to starting cornerbacks David Fisher and Da’Veawn Armstead. The additions gelled nicely with the veteran talent to claim North Texas’ first shutout since 2003.
The pressure was relentless, and outside linebacker Ethan Wesloski played the game of his life with a team-best seven tackles, two tackles for loss, and a fumble recovery in the end zone. He’ll look to serve as the all-conference star this defense needs to take the leap to contention status.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
Western Michigan remains in search of its first win of 2025, reeling in a 23-6 defeat at Michigan State which produced mixed reactions. On the positive side, the Broncos’ defense pitched a second half shutout and outscored the Spartans 6-2 in the final 30 minutes of action. But there is an obvious negative — Western Michigan’s offense has yet to score a single point this year.
In its home climate of Kalamazoo, Western Michigan hopes it gets that much-needed offensive spark against a North Texas program which has historically struggled defensively. Head coach Lance Taylor will continue to utilize a two-quarterback system with features former JUCO standout Brady Jones and incumbent backup Broc Lowry. At first glance, Jones looks to be the more traditional pocket passer and Lowry provides more of a boost for the running game. Jones played the entire first half and portions of the fourth quarter in the opener, while Lowry played the majority of the second half. Jones finished 11-of-23 for 97 yards and an interception and Lowry went 5-of-10 for 91 yards.
Western Michigan drove right down the field in Jones’ first drive, but it took until the third quarter before the Broncos crossed their own 40-yard line. When not subject to three-and-outs, the offense was prone to frequent sacks, tackles for loss, and turnovers — negatives the Broncos must significantly cut down in Week 2. However, not all was sour for the offense in the 23-6 defeat. Transfer receivers Tailique Williams (Georgia State) and Baylin Brooks (San Diego State) combined 159 of the team’s 188 receiving yards, stepping into premier roles with their new program.
Michigan State’s defense countered him tremendously, but Western Michigan knows what it has in running back Jalen Buckley. The former MAC Freshman of the Year looks to shake off a 21-yard opener and return to his stardom from the past two seasons. Buckley has a 1,000-yard season under his belt and aims to pick apart a North Texas run defense which allowed 196 yards per game in 2024.
While Buckley and the offense await their first touchdown, the defense hopes to simply continue its second half masterclass from East Lansing. Western Michigan forced four punts and two turnovers in Michigan State’s six full second half possessions. The latter turnover was a 32-yard pick-six by strong safety Tate Hallock, who should be one of the best players on the field in every contest this year. The reigning All-MAC safety collected a team-high nine tackles and a tackle for loss in addition to his interception, and after logging four picks in 2024, he’ll be a key cog in limiting North Texas’ explosive passing attack.
Another promising individual on defense was Houston transfer Nadame Tucker, who provided an instant boost to the Broncos’ pass rush. Western Michigan only had one defender exceed 3.0 sacks in 2024, but Tucker is already off to a head start after registering two sacks in Week 1. Tucker also contributed a forced fumble and quarterback hurry in his Bronco debut, appearing all over the stat sheet and backfield as a disruptive presence.
Prediction
North Texas and Western Michigan faced varying calibers of opponents in Week 1, adding some more mystique to this first-time matchup. The Mean Green offense, especially the passing attack, likely remains a powerful unit under Eric Morris. And while the defense played a near-perfect opener against Lamar, it was indeed an FCS opponent so the jury has not proven that unit innocent quite yet.
Western Michigan is built in opposite fashion. The Broncos defense shook off a rough start and proved to be a thorn in Michigan State’s side for the majority of that contest. The offense faced a sturdy Spartan bunch, but the unit still needs to prove its merit after collecting zero points last Friday night.
In the end, North Texas possesses the edge on both sides of the ball thanks to a transformed defense. The Mean Green create explosives in the passing game with Drew Mestemaker and his receiver bunch, pulling off the road win at Waldo Stadium to improve to 2-0 for the second-straight year.
Prediction: North Texas 31, Western Michigan 17
