The Wisconsin Badgers found out their fate for the NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening, as they’ll be a No. 5 seed in the West Region, taking on the No. 12 High Point Panthers in the first round. That game is set to be at 12:50 p.m. CT on Sunday in the Portland, Oregon regional.
Immediately after the draw was revealed, many fans and even former players were disappointed in where the Badgers landed in the tournament, believing that Wisconsin had been given an unfavorable draw once again.
Last year, a good
argument for that was there. Wisconsin had done significantly well in the Big Ten Tournament, securing a number of Quad 1 wins and reaching the Championship Game, where they lost a close one to the Michigan Wolverines.
Heading into the week, the Badgers were already trending on the No. 3 seed line, and it was expected that the strong push in the Big Ten Tournament would get Wisconsin the favorable draw in the Midwest Region as the No. 3 seed. That would’ve allowed them to play their first regional in Milwaukee on Friday and Sunday, giving them the coveted extra day of rest after playing on Championship Sunday.
Instead, Wisconsin remained the No. 11 overall seed, with Kentucky earning the No. 10 overall seed, sending the Wildcats to the Midwest Region and the Milwaukee regional, while Wisconsin was relegated to the East Region and the Denver regional.
Not only did the Badgers get a rough draw there, but they also were asked to play at altitude on Thursday and Saturday, giving them a very short turnaround after playing four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament. Head coach Greg Gard gave his displeasure at that, as both Wisconsin and Michigan were not given a seed boost and were forced to do the quick Thursday turnaround.
But, to make matters worse, Wisconsin also ended up with a rough matchup with the No. 6 BYU Cougars, both with the style of play and the favorable location, in the second round, disappointing fans. So it was a brutal draw for the Badgers, who ultimately fell short in a 91-89 loss in the Round of 32 to BYU, ending a fantastic season early.
Going back to 2024, the Badgers were also given a tough hand, as they earned a No. 5 seed, but faced arguably the toughest No. 12 seed that year with the James Madison Dukes, who upset Wisconsin in the first round.
This year, the committee treated things much differently, putting a lot more value into the conference tournaments. Wisconsin climbed a seed line as expected with a strong performance at the Big Ten Tournament, earning them the final No. 5 seed in the bracket.
With the Badgers in the West Region this year, let’s take a look at the bracket and see whether the Badgers were given an unfavorable draw for a second straight year.
East Region
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 LIU
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Miami
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas/NC State
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens
Unfavorable draw
Many remember High Point and their high-flying offense from a season ago, when they won the Big South and were a trendy upset pick as a No. 13 seed against No. 4 Purdue. The Panthers fell short 75-63 in the first round, but the buzz was there.
This season, High Point went 30-4, winning the Big South again and earning a No. 12 seed. While their offense has been a strong one, averaging 90.0 points per game, I think Wisconsin actually got the best possible draw of the No. 5 seeds.
Before looking at the matchup specifically, let’s just look at the analytics first. Of the four No. 12 seeds, High Point was, by far, the worst-rated team in KenPom. They ranked No. 92 overall in comparison to Akron (No. 64), McNeese (No. 68), and Northern Iowa (No. 72).
High Point has the No. 66 adjusted offensive efficiency, but their defense ranks only 161st in adjusted defensive efficiency. The big part of their offense is the tempo; High Point ranks No. 49th in the country there, according to KenPom, as they look to get up the floor quickly and shoot the ball.
But their shot selection raises issues for upset potential here. High Point isn’t a team that is near the top of the country in threes made or attempted. In fact, they rank 77th in threes made per game (9.6) and 85th in threes attempted per game (26.0). They do connect at a 35 percent clip from deep, but their three-point rate (42.9 percent) ranks just 116th in the country.
For comparison, the Badgers are evidently known as one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country. They’re fourth in the country in threes made per game (11.8) and seventh in the country in threes attempted per game (32.6), while having the sixth-highest three-point rate (52.6 percent) in college basketball. It’s why they’re considered one of the most dangerous teams in March Madness this year.
High Point also faced the easiest schedule by far of the four No. 12 seeds. According to KenPom, their strength of schedule net rating was 342nd in the country in comparison to Akron (236th), McNeese (201st), and Northern Iowa (127th).
The Panthers rely a ton on their scoring inside the arc, and for good reason. They shoot 57.1 percent on twos, which ranks 33rd in the country. But the Badgers will have a significant size advantage, especially with Nolan Winter back. High Point doesn’t start a player over 6’8, and their tallest rotational player stands 6’10, 220 pounds.
The Badgers have been much better defensively in the paint in recent games and have been far more physical than their early-season selves on the glass. They should have a clear advantage there in the paint, and can make it tough on High Point to get points in the paint, which is where their primary scorers look to feast.
The biggest thing to watch is the Panthers’ forwards who can shoot the ball. I expect Wisconsin to go with a lot of their small-ball four lineup for more length and athleticism on the perimeter to combat that.
Wisconsin has also been undefeated this season when scoring at least 80 points, and I don’t foresee a scenario here where they won’t be able to reach that figure. High Point’s defense has done well at times because they led the Big South in steals per game (10.9) but the Badgers are one of the best teams at protecting the basketball.
And offensively, even if the Badgers are streaky shooting beyond the arc, they should have an avenue to get in the paint and attack more with star guards John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. Blackwell especially could have a great matchup advantage offensively, and Wisconsin’s size advantage should lead to some opportunities on the offensive glass.
Is there a path for Wisconsin losing this game? Of course. But I honestly think the Badgers got a favorable draw here in comparison to the other 12 seeds. Akron will be a pretty trendy upset pick (although I’m not sure against Texas Tech), ranking as the best No. 12 seed in KenPom with a better offense, defense, and tempo than High Point.
Northern Iowa is a sleeper team because they’re Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and have played the best strength of schedule of the bunch. And McNeese is the only team with both a top-100 offense (No. 91 in KenPom adjusted efficiency) and defense (No. 49 in KenPom adjusted efficiency).
So, I like the Badgers draw, both from an analytical perspective and a matchup perspective.
If there were an issue to nibble on, it would be the location and timing. Wisconsin will have to travel to Portland, which isn’t close to the fanbase (but really none of the regionals were), and they have to play at 10:50 a.m. local time on the West Coast.
But the teams in their bubble (High Point, Arkansas) also deal with those factors coming from the East Coast, with only Hawaii (No. 13 seed) getting the favorable location.
The Badgers also have to play on Thursday, giving one less day of rest for Nolan Winter to get to 100 percent, but they did get an extra day of rest from not having to play in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Thursday draw could actually be to their advantage, which I’ll elaborate on shortly.
Second round draw
Should the Badgers advance past the first round, they would face either the No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks or the No. 13 seed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
With Arkansas being as red-hot as they are, I’d expect Darius Acuff and Co. to pull through to the Round of 32 to meet the Badgers. Given that the Razorbacks are winners of six of their last seven, I can see why people might believe them to be a rough draw for Wisconsin in the second round.
But, to be honest, I think Wisconsin got a pretty favorable matchup here to in comparison to others. First off, it was a bit surprising to see Vanderbilt, which beat No. 1 seed Florida by 17 to make the SEC Championship Game, be listed as a No. 5 seed. They were the No. 12 team in KenPom and No. 13 in NET with 10 Quad 1 wins. So, it was good for the Badgers that they were the first team out, as they’re one of the most well-rounded teams in college basketball.
Arkansas has a true game-changer with Darius Acuff Jr., who should be a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft and is in the running for being the best player in college basketball this season. Backcourt running mate Meleek Thomas is also a very capable scorer, providing a fun battle between star guards against Wisconsin’s duo.
But, unlike some other teams, Arkansas isn’t super physically imposing with their size. They play more small-ball with Trevon Brazile at the five, and aren’t very deep either, running seven deep over the last few games. Now, that’s not to say their offense won’t be a problem. It will certainly be a challenge to contain for the Badgers.
The Razorbacks are an elite three-point shooting team (eighth in the country at 38.9 percent) and just shot 15 of 24 (62.5 percent) from deep against Vanderbilt to win the SEC Tournament Championship. They also play at a fast pace, ranking 20th in tempo according to KenPom, and the Badgers have seen some struggles in transition.
But they don’t shoot threes at a high rate, which has been a trend under John Calipari. In 2024, the Razorbacks were 242nd in the country in three-point rate, shooting threes at only a 36.6 percent clip with their shot selection. This year? They’re even lower, ranking 311th with a 33.4 percent three-point rate.
Instead, Arkansas looks to feast inside the arc, with Darius Acuff and his aggressiveness being a huge reason why. Acuff has been able to hit shots inside the arc at an elite rate this season, while his teammates have benefitted from his playmaking ability, getting a lot of dunks at the rim.
The Razorbacks shoot a stellar 55.6 percent from inside the arc, which is the key to their offensive success and efficiency. But Arkansas is not a team that rebounded very well in the SEC, which makes sense given the size, so limiting second chances will be key for the Badgers.
Defensively, the Razorbacks defend the three fairly well, but are susceptible inside the arc, which is where Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have to be aggressive. With a thinner bench, foul trouble could be a factor, as Arkansas ranks outside the Top 150 in free throws allowed per game (20), which is a Badgers forte.
And there are matchups to exploit, with Acuff’s struggles as a point-of-attack defender.
This matchup definitely will be a tough one for the Badgers, but I think it’s better than an Alabama, whose high-octane offense, shooting, and pace could give Wisconsin some troubles, especially if they fall behind with streaky shooting.
Or Kansas’s elite defense and size, which may be tough for the Badgers to beat, especially with a talented scorer like Darryn Peterson on the other side. Or even Nebraska and their stellar defense, which gave the Badgers fits earlier this year.
I think Wisconsin got a draw that doesn’t play to their weaknesses (interior size, high-volume shooting), and they’ll take that matchup any day with their two elite guards. An additional factor is that Arkansas got the misfortune of timing this time, as they’ll have to play on Thursday after playing three games in three days and winning the SEC Championship Game.
With a shorter bench and the quick turnaround, plus the cross-country travel, it’s not ideal circumstances for the Razorbacks. Not to mention, they were the No. 16 overall seed, so they were considered the last No. 4 seed in the field.
Of course, everything will play itself out on the hardwood, but I don’t think this draw for the Badgers is nearly as bad as some are perceiving it to be. If anything, the toughest part about it is the potential matchup with the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet Sixteen.
Heading into Selection Sunday, I thought Arizona would be the toughest matchup for the Badgers of the No. 1 seeds. Wisconsin wouldn’t be able to play Michigan after seeing them again in the Big Ten Tournament, so it was down to Duke, Florida, and Arizona.
Duke is the No. 1 overall seed, but they’re dealing with injuries to key players (Caleb Foster and Pat Ngongba) that could impact their status in March. They have an elite player (Cam Boozer), elite shooter (Isaiah Evans), elite defenders (Dame Sarr, Maliq Brown), and quality depth. But I think Wisconsin can match up better with Duke physically than they do with Arizona.
Additionally, the Blue Devils don’t have as many guards who can beat you off the dribble as the Wildcats, who are overwhelming with their depth and size as well. Still, both are elite teams and the top contenders to win the National Championship for a reason.
As for Florida, they do have an overwhelming frontcourt, but Wisconsin has seen teams with them (Michigan, Illinois, etc.) and are better prepared for them. The Gators have been one of the hottest teams in the past month and might honestly be the favorite to win the title at the moment. But their guard play is easily the most inconsistent of the three teams.
With the Wildcats, they’ve got elite size, veteran leadership, top-tier guard play with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries, good shooting, great defense, and depth. That’s going to be a tough out for any team in the country.
Still, the Badgers have as good a chance as they’ve had of reaching the Sweet Sixteen in recent years, and I think this draw played a big factor in that.
