Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, December 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Location: Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
- Spread: North Texas (-2.5)
- Over/under: 66.5
- All-time series: North Texas leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: Tulane 45, North Texas 37 — October 26, 2024
- Current streak: Tulane, 2 (2013-24)
Setting the scene
This is the 11th American Conference Championship since the advent of the game in 2015. This one is unlike the other 10, as the stakes are greater than ever for both teams involved. For the first time
in the league’s history, both teams competing in the conference championship can qualify for the College Football Playoff with a victory.
The CFP committee unveiled Tulane at No. 20 and North Texas at No. 24 in Tuesday’s rankings, likely positioning both teams to finish as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions with a win in New Orleans. That will make one of these green teams the second American squad to qualify for the CFP, following in the footsteps of Cincinnati, which invaded the 4-team bracket back in 2021.
There is another unique factor about this conference championship. Both participating coaches are officially employed at other universities. North Texas head coach Eric Morris accepted a job at Oklahoma State, while Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall filled the vacancy at Florida, but both coaches committed to finishing what they started at their American programs, including potential CFP games. Thus, it creates the first-ever conference championship game between two head coaches that already departed for other schools.
But this isn’t about Oklahoma State or Florida. This is Tulane vs. North Texas. The Green Wave are regulars to this stage, becoming the first team to make four-straight American title games — serving as the host for three. After dropping two in a row, Tulane eyes its first conference championship since 2022. Meanwhile, North Texas is in its first conference title game since 2022, its final year in Conference USA. The Mean Green’s last conference championship transpired in 2004 as a Sun Belt team.
Whether its the perennial juggernaut or the fiery newcomer, the American team that emerges in New Orleans not only hoists a trophy Friday night. They crash the College Football Playoff.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas (11-1, 7-1 American) enters the American title game as one of 10 FBS teams boasting one loss or fewer. The Mean Green generated a program record 11 victories, blowing out the majority of opponents in order to reach this stage.
One reason North Texas’ road to championship weekend was so seamless was its No. 1 ranked offense. The Mean Green led the FBS in points per game (46.8) and yards per game (512), and the unit keeps getting better and better. North Texas posted 50 points in seven of 12 games, exceeding that threshold in five of its final six during a 6-game win streak. The unit never registered below 31 all season, utilizing a quick-tempo offense and impressive red zone efficiency to pile on the points week after week.
The leader of it all is one of the most unlikely Heisman candidates college football has ever seen. Drew Mestemaker burst onto the scene in the 2024 First Responder Bowl when he made his first start at quarterback since ninth grade. The high school safety and punter, who walked on as the sixth-string QB at North Texas, won the job in fall camp and now leads the entire country in passing at 3,835 yards. Mestemaker manufactured the 17th-most prolific passing performance all-time with 608 yards vs. Charlotte, but it’s not the sheer output which is impressive — it’s the combination of the output with the efficiency. Mestemaker completes 70.9 percent of passes, riding a 5-game streak of 72 percent or better and hitting on over 82 percent of tries in three wins this season.
Mestemaker finished 10 of his 12 starts without an interception, exhibiting a ratio of 29 touchdowns to four picks. However, three of those interceptions transpired in the lone defeat, a 63-36 shellacking from South Florida, and North Texas was doomed by five turnovers in a disastrous middle portion of that game.
The star quarterback isn’t the only dangerous freshman on this offense. True freshman Caleb Hawkins currently ranks first in the FBS in rushing touchdowns at 23 — with three touchdowns worth of cushion from second place. The young 1,000-yard tailback punched in 16 scores in the last four games alone, proving this offense is more than a classic air raid. Hawkins has five 130+ and three 180+ rushing performances all year, and he can thrive as an excellent pass catcher as well.
Six different Mean Green players have at least 25 receptions on the season. Checking in at first in the pack is Wyatt Young, who finished the regular season as the third in the FBS in receiving yards at 1,203 and 10th in touchdowns at 10. Young’s second half of the season was as dominant as anyone’s, collecting five 100-yard outings during North Texas’ 6-game streak. Against Rice in the penultimate game, he saw the best receiving performance of any FBS player all year with 295 yards on eight receptions.
Other receiving threats on this offense include Cameron Dorner, who is fresh off a career-high senior day against Temple, as well Miles Coleman, Landon Sides, and Tre Williams. All have at least 300 yards, showing Mestemaker’s ability to not force things but take what the defense gives to the open receiver.
An offense cannot be as high-octane as North Texas’ without stellar offensive line play. Four of North Texas’ five starters up front qualified for the all-conference team, including First Team guard Gabe Blair who triumphantly returned after missing nearly the entirety of 2024. The unit only surrendered 13 sacks in 12 games, checking in at 13th in the FBS in fewest sacks allowed.
This year took on a different level, but good offense is nothing new to North Texas. The Mean Green were 3rd, 6th, 21st, 40th, and 8th in yards per game in the last five years, starting with 2024 and ending with 2020. The problem were the defenses were as bad as the offenses were good. That is not the case with 2025 North Texas.
The Mean Green own one of the highest tackling rates in America, as first-year coordinator Skyler Cassity completely redefined the unit. He brought in a batch of Sam Houston transfers as the foundation and got the most out of the team’s returning talent as well. Best of all, the unit creates significant havoc, ranking sixth in the FBS with 23 turnovers forced.
Overall, the defense ranks near the median at 65th nationally in yards allowed — showing drastic contrasts as the FBS’s 10th-best pass defense and 8th-worst run defense. Leading the run-stopping portion of the defense is the talented linebacker duo of Trey Fields and Ethan Wesloski, ranking first and second on the team with 97 and 92 tackles, respectively. The other starter Shane Whitter was lost to the season after the Nov. 1 Navy game, and the unit is still working to recover from that injury.
The safety room has been arguably the most improved group on this Mean Green defense, with Quinton Hammonds and Will Jones II combining for 109 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and four interceptions. Those two have played an instrumental part in creating North Texas’ exceptional +13 turnover margin, as have cornerbacks Kollin Lewis, Da’Veawn Armstead, and David Fisher — the latter whom arrived from Sam Houston along with Coach Cassity.
The Mean Green scored on 66-of-70 red zone possessions (fourth-highest rate in FBS) this season, but the kicking game was not overly involved. Kicker Kali Nguma sunk an efficient 12-of-13 field goals on the year, but he only attempted three from 30 yards or greater, demonstrating Eric Morris’ proclivity to go for all manageable fourth downs.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane (10-2, 7-1 American) is back in its usual December spotlight. The Green Wave are in a fourth-straight American Conference Championship, and this historic run is bigger than one coach or quarterback. In fact, two different head coaches, three different starting quarterbacks, and three different leading rushers have accompanied these perennial runs to the title game.
The 2025 Green Wave weren’t decimating opponents on a weekly basis like the 2024 installment of the team, but Tulane surpassed its prior year win total by playing good complementary football and remaining consistent on a week-to-week basis. Offensively, you know what you’re getting out of Tulane. The team scored between 23 and 38 points in 11 of 12 games, holding one of the lowest standard deviations in all of college football. Defensively, the Green Wave have varied a bit more, but when they’ve held opponents to 32 points or fewer, they are a perfect 10-0.
Leading the offensive side of things is dual-threat quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Tulane brought in a litany of transfer QBs this offseason and Retzlaff was the latest to join in July, but the former BYU transfer (and former Jon Sumrall recruiting target at Troy) fit seamlessly in this offense from the moment he stepped into the facilities. At the beginning of the year, Retzlaff was renowned as a dangerous runner, exploding for 100 rushing yards in wins over Northwestern and Duke. As the season progressed, Tulane called fewer designed runs for the junior and opted to target the air more often. Retzlaff now rides a streak of four-straight 230+ yard passing performances, and while his rushing numbers weren’t as lofty in November, he still has six-straight outings with a rushing touchdown. Overall, his 14 scores as a runner are tied for 12th in the FBS and fifth among quarterbacks.
Retzlaff is Tulane’s leading rusher, which is rare for the program that made its rise of dominant running back play. This is the first season the Green Wave didn’t feature a top-10 rusher since 2021, relying heavily on the likes of Tyjae Spears and Makhi Hughes at the beginning of this special 4-year run. In 2025, Tulane switched its method and operated with a more committee-based approach at running back. Javin Gordon earned the most reps throughout the year but never received more than 15 carries in a game, maxing at 78 yards vs. Tulsa. But as of the last three weeks, a No. 1 tailback has emerged. Jamauri McClure rushed for 94 yards against Florida Atlantic on Nov. 15, earning the role for the remainder of the month. He became Tulane’s first 100-yard running back the following week and currently averages 7.3 yards per carry as the much-needed explosive backfield savant.
Tulane’s wide receiver room can be described similar to the running back room, using the term “commitee-based approach.” There is no clear-cut prevailing option as the top four receivers all have between 31 and 36 catches and 417 and 582 yards. Bryce Bohanon, the only Green Wave player to record 100 receiving yards in a game all year, is expected to miss the title game with an ongoing leg injury. That positions Shazz Preston, Anthony Brown-Stephens, and Omari Hayes as the main receiver corps for this game, with all three eyeing their first dominant showing of 2025. Brown-Stephens burst onto the scene in the finale vs. Charlotte, attaining 98 yards on nine receptions, and the junior’s role should continue to expand.
Where the Green Wave own the largest advantage offensively is up front. Two-time First Team All-American Conference guard Shadre Hurst certainly has an NFL future cut out, operating as the offense’s most irreplaceable player. Operating adjacent to him is left tackle Derrick Graham, who earned his second-straight all-conference nomination with the Green Wave. With all five working as a unit, Tulane ranks seventh in the FBS in fewest sacks allowed and 10th in fewest tackles for loss allowed — winning nearly every trench battle all year.
The execution in the trenches extends to the defensive side, where Tulane presents a highly-physical defensive line. Santana Hopper and Tre’Von McAlpine were the all-conference selections from this group, causing significant chaos in the interior. The d-line is a deep group that features a lot of rotating pieces. The co-sack leaders are Harvey Dyson III and Jordan Norman, while defensive end Kam Hamilton is another name to watch in the pass rush.
For the first half of the season, Dickson Agu served as the leading tackler from the linebacking corps, but his season-ending injury opened an expanded role for outside linebacker Chris Rodgers. Rodgers is tied for the team lead in tackles and serves as one of six defenders with at least 6.5 tackles for loss. Another linebacker pertinent to this stellar run defense (120 yards allowed per game, 3.5 yards allowed per carry) is Sam Howard — the epitome of toughness. The second-year Green Wave inside backer is playing through a broken leg, compiling four tackles for loss and two sacks this November in spite of the injury.
Tulane’s defense experiences some struggles in coverage, checking in at 119th in passing yards allowed. Safety Jack Tchienchou is the leading tackler from the group, while Jahiem Johnson and Javion White contribute to the turnover battle with three interceptions apiece. Last season Tulane led the FBS in non-offensive touchdowns, but the Green Wave are still looking for their first of 2025.
Rounding out the key contributors is the American Special Teams Player of the Year. Patrick Durkin drilled 22-of-24 field goals, hitting all 12 tries between 30-49 yards and faring 4-of-5 from 50 and beyond — almost guaranteeing Green Wave points should they get to the opposing 30-yard line.
Prediction
Tulane receives the benefit of homefield advantage, and the Green Wave are 6-0 at home this year with notable wins over Northwestern, Duke, and East Carolina. The team is 24-6 at Yulman Stadium since 2022, but last championship game Tulane hosted, it was dominated by SMU’s defense in a 26-14 decision.
North Texas enters as the slight favorite, and nobody has come remotely close to stopping the Mean Green since October. In their lone defeat, they managed 36 points and moved the ball extraordinarily well, but five rapid fire turnovers in the middle portion of the game doomed them from finishing undefeated. Outside of that Oct. 10 debacle, North Texas has an incredible track record of hanging onto the ball, and the passing offense matches up favorably against the Tulane secondary.
Tulane’s offense should be able to inflict some damage if it isn’t susceptible to frequent turnovers, but outlasting Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young in a track meet won’t be easy — especially for a team that hasn’t scored 40 points all season. The Mean Green prevail on the road in somewhat of a shootout to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: North Texas 41, Tulane 31
