After two games on the young 2026-27 season, the New Jersey Devils are 1-1-0. Not a bad start, but not a great one either. That being said, the vibes around the team are pretty bad right now given the result of their most recent game. After a feel-good win in the season opener against the Flyers, the vibes took a sharp nosedive into the abyss after losing 6-0 to the Isles in game number two of the season. It’s a game that triggers a lot of PTSD in all of us when it comes to a lot of issues that have
plagued this team in recent years. Poor finishing, struggles against the Islanders, bad goaltending, you name it. So while we’re only two games into an 84 game slate with a win under the Devils’ belts, there is much negativity surrounding the squad at the moment.
Despite all that, however, I am encouraged by what I’ve seen. And it reminds me a lot of 2022-23.
I realize this might be a bit of a contrarian take, and I also realize that 2022-23 is a lofty bar that shouldn’t be invoked flippantly. That said, when this comparison occurred to me, I went back and checked the numbers, and they really are quite similar. I will say upfront that I don’t expect the 2026-27 regular season to go as well as 2022-23 did. That being said, I do think that if New Jersey continues to play they way they have in their first two games, then this is an easy playoff team and strong contender in the Eastern Conference.
The Caveats
I want to get the negatives out of the way first. Despite the overall positive outlook we’ll demonstrate in a bit, I also can’t just ignore the bad things we’ve seen out of the Devils through two games.
The first thing that comes to mind is the continued struggles against the Metropolitan Division. I am exhausted of citing this statistic, but it’s such an important figure that it bears a lot of repeating: The New Jersey Devils went 7-17-2 against the Metro in 2025-26. It was one of the most prominent reasons why the season went as wrong as it did. They were swept in the season series by a number of division foes last year, including the first two opponents of this season, the Flyers and Islanders. They lost big to New York, but they did managed to defeat Philadelphia in the season opener, which is some nice progress.
The only problem is that it was an overtime win, meaning they still allowed the Flyers to collect a loser point. Philadelphia collected the third-most extra points in the Eastern Conference last year with 12 of them, it was a huge reason why they were invited to the dance. So even in victory, the Devils allowed a division rival to walk away with a participation trophy.
New Jersey’s current .500 points percentage against the Metro isn’t great obviously, but it’s worlds better than their .308 from 2025-26. The problem is, they’re still giving up a .750 points percentage to their in-division foes, which will simply not get the job done. The Devils absolutely cannot afford another abysmal showing against the Metropolitan Division this season, they need to figure it out immediately.
There is another problem that has popped up through two games that has become all too familiar to Devils fans in recent years: a lack of finish.
The simplest way I can put it is this: Through two games, the Devils have scored three goals on 81 shots on net. That’s a shooting percentage of 3.7%. In other words, some of the worst shooting numbers in the NHL.
Since the magic carpet ride of 2022-23, the Devils’ lack of scoring touch has been a gigantic anchor hanging from the team’s neck. To be fair, one of the goalies they faced was Ilya Sorokin, one of the finest netminders in the world. There’s no shame in not being able to solve him. But they also got stuffed more than they should by Joseph Woll, who is very decidedly not one of the finest netminders in the world. Shooting percentage is normally a fluky stat. There are snipers across the league that can consistently outshoot their expected numbers, and if a team collects enough of them, they can reliably score more goals than the fancy numbers might indicate. But outside of this very specific hypothetical, shooting on a team-wide scale is not a repeatable skill, and any shooting numbers way above or below expected are mostly just dumb luck.
I’m one of those hockey fans that strongly abides by advanced metrics, so the general concept of shooting percentage being fluky outside of a handful of sharpshooters is one I believe in. That said, the New Jersey Devils are making me question that belief. This has been going on with such regularity for multiple years now that it seriously feels like New Jersey is one of the extreme outlier teams that has repeatable shooting skill…except it’s negative shooting skill. Whether it’s Woll or Sorokin, the Devils make every goalie they face look like prime Martin Brodeur. They better hope regression to the mean finally finds them soon.
Finally, the goaltending concerns reared their ugly head after game two. Not after game one though, as Jake Allen was fine. It was Nico Daws that sounded the alarms that he might not be ready for prime time. His performance against the Islanders was atrocious, and while the Devils wouldn’t have won anyway since they didn’t score any goals, they still could’ve used a better performance out of Daws to instill some confidence in the goalie tandem. According to Natural Stat Trick, Daws allowed 2.26 goals above expected. He was not helped out by the skaters in front of him on some of those goals, but there were a few that he could have and should have had. It’s only one game, but through that microscopic sample size, the folks who doubted Daws have been proven correct.
And Now Onto The Positivity
Now that we’ve acknowledged the areas of concern, it’s time to talk about 2022-23.
Reach back into your memory if you can, and remember what the start of the 2022-23 campaign was like. New Jersey opened the season with a 5-2 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia. They then returned to The Rock for their home opener…and lost 5-2 again, this time to the Detroit Red Wings. It could be argued that the vibes were worse after that game than at any other time post-pandemic, considering the crowd famously showered former head coach Lindy Ruff with “Fire Lindy” chants during that home opener. Absolutely nothing was going right on the scoreboard for the Devils through those first two games.
But the scoreboard did not tell the whole story. New Jersey dominated puck possession in those first two contests of 2022-23. They outshot the Flyers 37-25 and outshot the Red Wings 39-22. And it wasn’t just shots on net either. The 5-on-5 Natural Stat Trick numbers back up the notion that New Jersey was manhandling their opposition in the run of play:
And what happened after those two losses? The Devils won their first game of the season next time out against the Anaheim Ducks, and proceeded to win 16 of their next 17 games, including that fabled 13-game winning streak.
This year, the numbers are very similar through two contests:
The Flyers game was a complete oil changing, and the Islanders game was closer but still firmly in New Jersey’s favor. Even if you want to argue that the only reason the numbers look as good as they do versus the Isles was because New Jersey racked up a lot of chances in garbage time, NST’s Expected Goals number when adjusting for score effects and venue had the Devils at an xG% of 57.67. A tick down, but still solidly in New Jersey’s column.
Meanwhile, what were some other key ingredients in this core’s magnum opus season? Since Andy Greene’s prime, the Devils were sorely lacking a stud number one blueliner. Then Dougie Hamilton came along and led the defense corps with a truly elite campaign, finishing sixth in the Norris Trophy voting. Hamilton is still here, but he has unfortunately aged out of consistently elite play. But that’s where Luke Hughes comes in. We’ve all been waiting for the Hughes breakout campaign for a while, and even though it’s only two games, the results this season have been promising. He scored a big goal against Philadelphia, and controlled play exceptionally in both contests (29-6 edge in shot attempts, 81.68 xG% versus the Flyers, and 16-7 edge in shot attempts, 72.34 xG% versus the Islanders). Hockey Stat Cards backs this up, tabbing Hughes with game scores of 2.81 and 1.84, which are terrific marks. Perhaps having a full training camp for the first time since 2023(!) is just what he needed, and if he is finally blossoming into that genuine number one defenseman, the Devils will finally have something they haven’t had since 2022-23.
Another key aspect of the 112 point squad was the ability to roll four lines. This one isn’t quite there yet, as the fourth line has yet to find their footing. Cody Glass is way overqualified as a fourth line center, but he didn’t fare well against the Islanders and mostly has not gotten going yet. Stefan Noesen is another player who on paper is better than your average fourth liner, but he has yet to step up himself. And Amadeus Lombardi took two brutal penalties back-t0-back that sapped all the momentum from a genuinely great start to the game for New Jersey on Long Island. Those infractions earned him a partial benching, as he only saw a handful of shifts the rest of the way after that. All that being said, I have confidence that this trio can turn it around, and even if they can’t, Connor Brown should be returning from injury soon, and I have more faith in him than either Noesen or Lombardi to be able to click in a depth role.
And if the fourth line is taken care of, that’ll complete the set, as the top three lines are mostly humming so far. Let’s check the numbers, this time using Moneypuck (all numbers reflect 5-on-5 play):
The top nine is bulldozing their opposition. All that’s left is the fourth line to get it going.
We also saw all three main defense pairs from 2022-23 feature the ability to move the puck well. The top pair featured Hamilton at the height of his powers, the second pair featured John Marino, and the third pair featured Damon Severson. All three were more than capable of moving the puck up the ice, which was critical for the Devils’ rush-based attack that shredded opposing defenses. This one I’m a bit more concerned with. If Hughes’ first two games are indicative of what’s to come, that’s taken care of. I am also confident that Hamilton can still move the puck well enough in a second pair role. It’s the third pair that worries me. Brenden Dillon and Johnny Kovacevic are incapable of moving the puck well, so it’s left to newcomer Declan Chisholm. The early returns aren’t good, as Chisholm has struggled playing on his offhand in third pairing deployment. It’s early, and I’ve seen flashes, but he needs to step up. That being said, I do think getting a puck mover to play sheltered minutes should be relatively doable for Sunny Mehta, so I do have a level of confidence that this can get done one way or another this season.
Finally, as for the goaltending, I actually have more confidence in Jake Allen right now than I did Vitek Vanecek or Mackenzie Blackwood back then. Remember, Vanecek wasn’t an established starter yet, and Blackwood showed flashes but lacked consistency. And Akira Schmid was just a rumor at the beginning of 2022-23. Allen is steadier than all of them, so if one of Daws, Remi Poirier, or David Rittich can be the 1B to provide reasonable goaltending alongside Allen, then all the pieces will be in place.
Final Thoughts And Your Take
As mentioned, I’m not saying I expect the Devils to roll to 112 points just like they did in 2022-23. But what I am saying is, while I get the negative vibes and the causes for concern, I am genuinely encouraged by what I’ve seen so far. This is a different Devils team than the past few years, not just in how much deeper the roster is, but in terms of the system they’re playing as well. Their play in the first two games, even the Islanders game, has shown that this team can control play with the best of them.
And two more points before we wrap up: keep in mind that those first two games in 2022-23, the canary in the coal mine to the rest of the league that the Devils were legit, came against bad teams. The Flyers finished with a measly 75 points that year, while the Red Wings finished with 80. I would argue that this season’s version of the Flyers is far more imposing than the one from 2022-23, and the Islanders of this year should be better than either the Flyers or Red Wings from four years ago as well. That the Devils have controlled play this well against one good and one decent team shows even more promise than 2022-23.
And the final point I’ll make is that the 2026-27 Devils are already ahead of their 2022-23 counterparts because, you know, they actually won a game already.
I’m really not trying to be a contrarian here. I acknowledge that there are a few warning signs flashing at the moment. But overall I am encouraged by what I’ve seen from this Devils team so far, even after that miserable Islanders game. If they continue to play like this consistently, they’ll be just fine.
What do you make of the Devils’ start to this season? Are you as encouraged as I am, or are you more pessimistic. Do you see any echoes of 2022-23 like I do? As always, thanks for reading!
