UNC faces California in an ACC tilt Friday night, kick-off 10:30 EDT. Let’s look inside the numbers for these two programs so far this year and see if we find a plausible path to victory for our Tar Heels.
The Investment: Edge UNC
The University of North Carolina made massive investments in coach, general manager, and roster to achieve a significant advantage in games like these. Spending approximately $11,000,000 more than your opponent on this year’s team carries expectations. UNC even has a head start on Cal in the General Manager department, as Ron Rivera, Golden Bear linebacker legend and former NFL head coach, joined their program only six months ago. On paper, UNC should have an edge in game plan, execution, and roster talent. After all, UNC’s paying a significant premium for those advantages against opponents like Cal.
2025 Season So Far: Edge Cal
Cal’s strength of schedule stands out. While the Golden Bears have a better overall record, they’ve achieved it against one of the weakest schedules in the country. However, Minnesota appears in the 50s in most national rankings while Charlotte’s been one of the five worst teams in college football. That makes Cal’s best win a far cry better than UNC’s. On the flip side, Cal losing to San Diego State (ranked by FEI and SP+ near UCF) to the tune of 34-0 demonstrates UNC can win this game.
Traveling all the way across the country for a 10:30 EDT kick is never easy, and the logistics of that would seem to give Cal even more a homefield advantage. However, Duke just made that trip and won by 3+ touchdowns. Cal has been a below average football team overall, capable of beating a solid opponent in Minnesota but also pulling a no-show against San Diego State. Still, Cal’s total body of work in 2025 remains better than UNC’s, despite Cal spending far less on coaching and roster.
Tar Heel Offense vs Golden Bears Defense: Edge Cal
*Drive Success Rate: drives that end with a TD or FG attempt
Cal’s biggest advantage on paper will be when the Tar Heel offense faces the Golden Bear defense. Justin Wilcox, Cal’s head coach, has a long-standing reputation as a good defensive coach. Adding Ron Rivera to their mix puts another proven defensive mind in play for the Golden Bears. Cal’s been above average at limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, UNC’s been one of the worst teams in college football at turning drives into points.
For UNC, points promise to be at a premium. Opportunities that don’t come often must to be maximized. Simply put, if the Tar Heel defense or special teams provides a short field opportunity, our offense has to capitalize. If the offense faces a fourth and short deep in opponent territory, the goal needs to be seven points, not three. Against Clemson on our opening drive, kicking a field goal on 4th and 1 conveyed both to our players and the Clemson sideline that our coaches had little confidence in the offense. In turn, that emboldened Clemson to accept more risk on offense, converting a 4th down near midfield on their third drive, scoring a touchdown one play later. Game over. Similar timidity against Cal probably won’t turn out well.
Tar Heel Defense vs Golden Bears Offense: Push
Cal has struggled on offense, working through the growing pains of fielding a true freshman QB, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS for short). Cal consistently averages around 250 passing yards per game. In their two losses, Cal struggled to run the ball (102 yards on 61 attempts) and turned the ball over seven times, six of those JKS interceptions. JKS made a splash in the college football world in his first three games, but defensive coordinators look at tape and find ways to make a new QB uncomfortable. Each defensive coordinator builds on the success of preceding coordinators, forcing adjustments. Cal had a bye week to work on those adjustments, while UNC had a bye week to see what San Diego State and Duke did to flummox the freshman.
The opportunity for UNC in this matchup will be to bait JKS into some turnovers and generate short-field scoring opportunities for a limited offense. The loss of Thad Dixon certainly hurts on that front. Much has been made of UNC’s overall roster talent, but that’s not really an issue when we’re discussing an opponent like Cal. Here’s a situation where excellent defensive coaching can and should show up.
Players will still have to execute. Not all “interception worthy” throws turn into interceptions; if many DBs had better hands, they’d be on the offensive side of the ball. Still, a confused JKS trying to decode post-snap defensive looks seems a reasonable ask. Leveraging an anemic Cal rushing attack to force passing situations seems a reasonable ask. Turning those passing downs into rushed decisions by JKS seems a reasonable ask. Great coaching by the Belichicks will increase the odds of crucial Golden Bear mistakes. We’ve seen scant evidence of coaching excellence from our defense anywhere this season. Friday night’s the Belichicks’ best opportunity yet to showcase their coaching chops against a P4 opponent.
Special Teams: Edge UNC
Looking at special teams, two things really stand out. First, limiting Cal drives to field goal attempts is a win for the Tar Heels. Second, UNC’s been very good at returning punts (not that the defense forces many), while Cal’s been excellent at covering them. That’s a strength on strength area worth watching.
Odds Review
Cal ranges from a 9.5 to 10.5 point favorite. The over/under sits around 48, which roughly translates to a Vegas expectation around 29-19. Clemson at game time was a 14-point favorite with a similar over/under, making the Vegas prediction for that game around 31-17. Similarly, UCF was a seven-point favorite with a projected game score around 27-20, while TCU was around a four-point favorite with a projected game score around 30-26. To date, game odds have expected a level of competitiveness that UNC has yet to demonstrate against P4 competition.
Interestingly, the line for Friday’s game has moved more than two points in UNC’s favor since posting. That movement happened despite the loss of Thad Dixon, who’s been UNC’s best defensive player. The betting market may be pricing a locker room rally against last week’s deluge of negative press? Perhaps markets felt the opening line was an overreaction to UNC’s dismal play so far? Might the byes on either side of the Clemson game, ample practice time for a guy with eight Super Bowl rings to work with, be creating some bettor hesitation?
Summary
Despite all the sound and fury surrounding Bill’s hiring, despite all the money thrown at the coaches, roster, and program, and despite all of Bill’s Super Bowl rings, a below-average Cal squad enters this game a decided favorite. UNC’s played one game in the last 27 days, which should have given the coaches and players significant opportunity to address weaknesses and start ACC play anew. We didn’t see that against Clemson, but the Tigers do have top-shelf NFL prospects sprinkled across their roster. Cal doesn’t.
This shapes up as the kind of game where great coaching could and should earn their keep. Cal lost to San Diego State and Duke by the combined score of 21-79. Despite odds-maker predictions, UNC has a very real path to a win in this game if the offense can show some improvement and if the defense can get the best of Cal’s true freshman QB.