The Rays have been an analytical team for decades, maximizing the talent on their payroll-deprived roster for years. After five consecutive playoff appearances from 2019-23 that included a pennant, the team missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. But they have rebounded this year with a terrific start using an old formula familiar to Royals fans – put the ball in play and make things happen on the bases.
The Rays and Royals are the top two teams in baseball in contact rate, but while
the Royals have the second-highest flyball rate, the Rays put the ball on the ground with the fourth-highest groundball rate. The Rays also go the opposite way more than any team except the Brewers. They are eighth in stolen bases and Baserunning Runs, and have attempted and executed more sacrifice hits than any team in baseball.
That being said, they have only done slightly better offensively than the Royals. And they have faded lately after a hot month of May, going 7-11 this month.
Kansas City Royals (32-46) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (43-31) at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st in MLB), 4.81 runs allowed/game (20th)
Rays: 4.42 runs scored/game (16th), 4.31 runs allowed/game (11th)
Yandy Díaz is third in all of baseball in batting average at .326, and he is hitting .364/.439/.653 in home games. Junior Caminero is hitting .291/.417/.468 against lefties. Jonathan Aranda is a career .324/.324/.486 in 11 games against the Royals.
Speedster Chandler Simpson has a 10.8 percent strikeout rate, tenth-lowest among qualified hitters, and his 58 percent groundball rate is the highest in baseball. He is hitting just .125/.169/.125 over his last 19 games. Cedric Mullins has the highest flyball rate in baseball at 59 percent. Simpson is one of the best defenders in baseball in the outfield, by Outs Above Average, while Caminero is the second-worst defender at any position.
Drew Rasmussen has the 11th-highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate among all qualified starters. His 2.59 ERA is second-lowest in the American League. He has a 49.3 percent groundball rate, ninth-highest among starters. Rasmussen has a 1.69 ERA over his last five starts, including striking out a career-high 13 batters on June 10 against the Red Sox.
Shane McClanahan missed the last two seasons due to injury, but the two-time All-Star has picked up where he left off. He has a 2.05 ERA in six home starts this year, and lefties are hitting just .133/.235/.178 against him. He had his shortest outing of the year his last time out, exiting in the fourth inning after giving up a career-high five walks. He has a 2.30 ERA in three career starts against the Royals.
Griffin Jax was a closer to the Twins, but the Rays have converted him to a starting pitcher. He has slowly ramped up, but has yet to go more than five innings in a start. Salvador Perez is just 2-for-17 (.118) in his career against Jax.
Ian Seymour is also a former reliever who has slowly ramped up to starting, pitching a season-high five innings in his last start against the Nationals. He mostly throws a changeup and sweeper, only mixing in his 91 mph fastball 22 percent of the time. Opponents are hitting just .171 against his sweeper with a 42 percent whiff rate.
The Rays’ bullpen has struggled with a 4.53 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. They do have the fourth-lowest rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Bryan Baker has been a terrific pickup, and his 19 saves are third-most in baseball. Kevin Kelly has a 58.9 percent groundball rate, 11th-highest among relievers. All-Star pitcher Craig Kimbrel has given up one run in three innings since joining the Rays following his release from the Mets.
The Rays are glad to be back at Tropicana Field after a year away when the stadium was being repaired following Hurricane Milton. They are 26-10 at home this year, by far the best home record in baseball. The Royals swept all three games in St. Pete last year, and have not lost a series here since 2022.
