The San Francisco 49ers were going to have to beat the best of the best, regardless of what order, to play a home game for Super Bowl LX. Step 1 is complete after upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles.
Kyle
Shanahan leaned on Fred Warner during practice to boost energy levels. The 49ers won’t have their All-Pro linebacker against the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday.
They will have Brock Purdy, who has yet to lose in Seattle during his career. That’s no small feat, by the way. Purdy tied Hall of Famer Dan Fouts for the longest quarterback win streak at the Seahawks. Purdy has proven he can perform under high-leverage, high-pressure situations. He’ll need to once more on Saturday.
Kyle Shanahan has not lost a game in his career when facing a team a second time within three weeks. He’s 3-0. He’s also 5-2 in games in which the Niners face a team they played within the previous month.
Shanahan and company face the Herculean task of taking down the No. 1 seed with arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and the best run defense of this decade. Unlike the first two matchups against Seattle, George Kittle won’t be available.
The 49ers have won 67 percent of the games they’ve played with Kittle on the field since 2022. They are 22 games over .500, but just 5-6 in games where Kittle doesn’t play. The offensive production drops by nearly 4 points, while yards per play drop by a half yard.
Can San Francisco pull off their second upset in the playoffs against a better version of the team they played just six days ago? Can they do the improbable without their Hall of Fame tight end?
49ers passing attack versus the Seahawks’ passing defense
A low point in Week 18 was followed by the best passing performance against a Vic Fangio defense in two seasons.
In 2023, the 49ers faced Seattle in Week 12, traveled to Philadelphia, then played the Seahawks again in Week 14. Brock Purdy threw for 209 yards in the first matchup against Seattle that year. The Niners had a few explosive plays, but Purdy was held in check. Shanahan found something in the rematch, as Purdy threw for 368 yards, averaging 13.6 yards per attempt, and had six completions over 15 yards, including a pair of touchdowns.
Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle ain’t walking through that door. That trio had 351 combined yards, including gains of 54, 45, and 44 by each of them. That team was ridiculously talented. Kittle and Samuel were moving at different speeds.
The point of mentioning that game is that Shanahan saw something from the previous matchup and schemed up mismatches. Deebo ran by safety Jamal Adams for a 54-yard gain. He also had a 30-yarder against linebacker Bobby Wagner. Aiyuk had a 45-yarder against a safety and a 30-yard reception against a linebacker.
Of course, Mike MacDonald was still in Baltimore in 2023. Seattle’s rematch against the Rams was telling. It happened at home, said even more. For the season, Los Angeles’s passing success rate was 53.6 compared to the 49ers’ 53.1—good for second and third in the NFL. So it’s not a stretch to compare these offenses. Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards and had five completions of at least 15 yards in Week 16.
Puka Nacua did most of the heavy lifting, but Xavier Smith had a 48-yard reception. Somebody named Konata Mumpfield caught a 19-yard pass. Both backup tight ends, Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson, had 27-yard receptions. Jordan Whittington caught a 19-yard pass.
At home, Seattle is gettable through the air.
Way back when in Week 5, against one of the few competent quarterbacks the Seahawks faced at home, Baker Mayfield threw for 379 yards and two touchdowns, going 29-for-33. Mayfield had a ridiculous 0.66 EPA per play and a 56 percent success rate. He threw for a first down on 46 percent of his throws. There was no Mike Evans in that game.
The 49ers are expected to get Ricky Pearsall back. Last week, Demarcus Robinson improved his streak to five games with a double-digit reception. It was the fourth time in five games that Robinson went over 22 yards on a reception. Pearsall had 30 and 38-yard receptions out of the bye week. Pre-injury, Purdy had three games where he had at least a 30-yard reception during the first month of the season.
Shanahan should follow last week’s game plan, where he put the game on the shoulders of his quarterback. Allow Purdy to be aggressive. That’s when Brock’s at his best, when he can thrive in chaos and push the ball down the field.
It won’t be easy. The Seahawks allowed the second-lowest average depth of target in the NFL at 6.75 yards. Seattle’s explosive play rate allowed was first in the NFL by a comfortable margin of 3.67 percent.
It goes against conventional wisdom, but Purdy is less efficient the closer his throws are to the line of scrimmage. Play-action shots. That’s an area Shanahan should be more comfortable this time around with Trent Williams and Pearsall playing.
The play-action passes were not the same in Week 18. Purdy threw for a pair of first downs off play-action, but only had 19 yards in eight attempts. Conversely, Purdy had three first downs and 62 yards, going 6-for-8 on play-action in Week 1.
Identifying the mark: In Week 5, Mayfield targeted linebacker Ernest Jones five times. He allowed five receptions for 101 yards and five first downs. In Week 16, Stafford completed three of his six targets against Jones for 67 yards and a first down. It would have been more, but the Rams dropped two passes.
In Week 1, Purdy was 7-for-9, targeting Jones for 67 yards and three touchdowns. McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk had 25-yard receptions. Whether it’s spamming targets underneath to Christian McCaffrey or Juszczyk and Jake Tonges winning on isolation routes, it’s a matchup the 49ers must win. Getting Jones on a wide receiver is a cherry on the top.
This part of the game feels like Shanahan will play keep away with his passing game while giving Purdy options down the field. Pearsall and Robinson will have their opportunities on double moves or crossing routes, with the Jauan Jennings third-down targets written in stone.
The quick turnaround favors the offense. Historically, these rematches featuring the top-scoring defenses are higher-scoring. After getting embarrassed in Week 18, expect the 49ers to have more answers against Seattle through the air this time around.
Instead of using a receiver to chip the left tackle on nearly half the plays, the eligible can run a route while you trust Trent Williams to block. Purdy did not look the same without Williams on the field. It was the first time in a long time that Purdy looked timid and gunshy. He looked like himself last week. We think that’ll continue this week in Seattle.
The Seahawks excel at taking away your No. 1 wide receiver. They took away the play-action and the No. 1 wideout last time. The 49ers are not a viable offense when Jauan Jennings is their top threat. Pearsall, added into the mix, adds a big-play threat and takes a receiver who can’t get open off the field.
Advantage: 49ers
49ers rushing attack versus the Seahawks’ rushing defense
In Week 18’s preview, we highlighted how historically dominant the Seahawks have been at defending the run. As you can see, a 10 percent success rate backs that up.
Rookie Nick Emmanwori was somehow better than expected against the run in that game, with three stops. Shanahan’s scheme did its job, as the offensive line averaged over a yard before contact. That’s where it stopped, as the defensive line full of first-rounders flexed its muscles against the Niners.
It wasn’t just the front four for Seattle. Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen both had multiple stops. Seattle was flawless, and the 49ers had no answers.
How different will the running game look with Trent Williams? Unlike in Week 18, Shanahan will run the ball outside of the tackles. Earlier in the week, Shanahan said the plan is to “really embrace having him back” when talking about Williams.
Williams will help. That success rate going from 10 to 30 percent would be a drastic improvement. Even with the All-Pro, the running game is not a favorable area for the 49ers, stylistically, physically, or schematically. That talent discrepancy is the size of the Grand Canyon in this matchup. This is where you see Macdonald’s excellence.
Advantage: Seahawks
Can Robert Saleh find a way to be competitive against the run?
The 49ers want to make Sam Darnold beat them. You can’t do that unless you stop the run. The Seahawks want to run the ball. Only the Ravens ran it at a higher clip than Seattle this season. The Seahawks were just behind the 49ers at fourth place in outside zone attempts this season.
Since the 49ers lost Mykel Williams, they’re allowing 5.4 yards per carry on outside zone attempts. In Week 18, Seattle averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 15 outside zone attempts. San Francisco made nearly two dozen mistakes in Week 18, and a good portion of those were defending the run and tackling.
Not missing 23 tackles and allowing almost three football fields of yards after contact is a good start. At the same time, it’s a matchup tailor-made for running back Kenneth Walker, who made the Niners tacklers look two steps too slow a couple of weeks ago.
When Walker is on the field, it’s outside zone. That’s what 38 percent of his runs were this past season, and an incredible 18 percent of those went for 10+ yards. How does Saleh answer? With the kids.
In Week 18, the 49ers had a rushing EPA allowed of -0.25 with Alfred Collins on the field. It was even better with CJ West, at -0.51. On the flip side, Seattle had an EPA of +0.21 with Jordan Elliott on the field. As we’ve gotten further into the season, Collins and West have been more competitive while being stout against the run.
The linebacker play couldn’t possibly be worse than it was to end the season. Eric Kendricks on the field every play will help. Perhaps that’ll make Dee Winters better. The 49ers need to out-athlete Seattle and slip blocks when their linemen climb to the second level.
It’s easier said than done with rookie left guard Grey Zabel. However, Anthony Bradford is not a player the rookie defensive tackles should lose to. Zabel is impossibly good for a rookie. Bradford is a player that the better defenses have exposed. Left tackle Charles Cross makes his first start in over a month after missing the final three games of the regular season.
Advantage: Seahawks
The Eagles had a rushing success rate of 49 percent last week. That’s concerning, coming off the game Seattle had just had the week prior. The Seahawks having a season-high 39 carries in Week 18 doesn’t exactly give you confidence in the Niners’ run defense. Give Saleh credit for adjusting as the game went along. Walker’s speed against this defense terrifies me. If he gets loose, the Niners’ season comes to an end.
But if he doesn’t…
Can the 49ers take advantage of Sam Darnold’s inevitable derp moments?
Inevitable. It is going to happen. Sam Darnold will have 2-3 derp moments in this game. How do I know? Because it’s happened every game. Will the 49ers take advantage is the question.
The 49ers struggled to defend Darnold when Seattle was in 21 personnel in Week 18. Darnold completed all four of his passes for 47 yards and two explosive plays. It’s an area where the 49ers have no choice but to improve.
I was reluctant to give Klint Kubiak credit for the job he has done all season. The way he has put Darnold in a position to succeed by targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba seemingly half the time should be commended. When these two teams met two weeks ago, all 10 of Darnold’s downfield passes were to JSN.
It’s rare for somebody to get over on Renardo Green. In Week 18, Green allowed the most yards to a single receiver in his early career. Green shut down Smith-Njigba on third downs, but the early play-action plays went to JSN.
Saleh increased his blitz rate by more than six percent to 29.7 last week against Jalen Hurts. I believe we’ll see something similar this weekend. The idea of pressure did Hurts in. He saw blitzers coming and left multiple clean pockets. By doing that, he cut the field in half.
Two weeks ago, the 49ers pressured Darnold more than Seattle pressured Purdy, at 46.7 percent. Saleh only blitzed Darnold 23.3 percent of the time. Darnold tied for the league lead by committing at least one turnover in nine different games when pressured. Darnold also has the highest turnover rate when he’s pressured in the NFL.
Saleh sat back and let Kubiak dictate the game in Week 18. It’s hard to believe he’ll do that with a short turnaround, especially with the success the 49ers had last week. The pressure rate against Hurts was low, but the illusion of pressure caused multiple incompletions.
The defense’s goal is to take Darnold off his first read. Make him double-clutch. That’s when good things happen for the defense. Darnold’s net yards per attempt drops from 9.4 to 5.2 when pressured. He also leads the league in batted passes when under pressure. Darnold is better than Hurts. Darnold still needs to prove he can perform when it matters.
Smith-Njigba is going to make his plays. He does every game. JSN is the first player to lead the NFL in receiving yards as the No. 1 seed since Jerry Rice in 1994. We are talking about a superstar.
Is this a game where the speed of Marques Sigle comes into play? Being able to get to areas Ji’Ayir Brown couldn’t reach could be the difference between a turnover and an incompletion. It would also allow the 49ers to double JSN and force literally anybody else to beat them.
If you lose because Rashid Shaheed beats Deommodore Lenoir, then you tip your cap. But he’s a big-play receiver, and the 49ers don’t allow explosive plays.
Saleh’s defense has allowed the fourth-worst completion rate in the previous 12 games, at 67.4 percent. However, they rank fifth in yards per completion allowed and ninth in air yards per attempt. Darnold is typically not a patient quarterback.
We are a year removed from Darnold posting a 40 percent passing success rate and -0.49 EPA per play in the playoffs. The 49ers can put pressure on Darnold by scoring. They did not in Week 18, so Seattle didn’t have to put the game in his hands. That changes this week.
Purdy’s playoff mettle continues, and Darnold’s derp moments do the Seahawks in, as do their home passing defense. We will get to watch Fred Warner play football again this season.
49ers 24, Seahawks 23.
