Take a trip in the wayback machine with me, friends. All the way back to Sep. 1, 2026. Ah, we were so young and innocent then.
The Orioles had just clawed back to the .500 mark for the first time since April, and they did it with one of the most miraculous game-ending plays you’ll ever see, Colton Cowser’s unbelievable home run robbery that denied a walkoff in Colorado. The O’s had won six of seven and rocketed up the wild card standings, sitting just a half game behind the Guardians for the final
spot with no other team in their way.
At that point, if you had looked ahead a week and circled the upcoming Orioles vs. Guardians series on your calendar, you weren’t alone. This was potentially going to be the pivotalest of pivotal series for the Birds, pitting them head to head against the one opponent they most needed to beat. This matchup was going to decide which team would seize control of a playoff spot. The Orioles, we thought at the time, figured to be right on Cleveland’s heels — if not ahead of them — by the time this series began. All the Orioles needed to do before then was to finish up a series win or sweep in Colorado and then hold their own against the Red Sox.
Spoiler: the Orioles did not do any of those things. And now, this faceoff against the Guardians feels nothing like a heavyweight battle for a postseason spot. Instead it’s set up to be another disappointing, one-sided slog that may well plunge the final nail into the Birds’ 2026 playoff hopes.
The Orioles’ September collapse — an 0-6 record and a vanishing offense — has all but sunk them out of contention. They’re now four games back of the Guardians with just 18 games to play. They’ve also been leapfrogged by the Blue Jays and the Rangers. If it isn’t already “stick a fork in ‘em” time for the O’s, this series could end all doubt. A series loss would make the playoff math nearly impossible. Even an incredibly unlikely Orioles sweep wouldn’t catch them up with the Guardians, and they’d still have the Jays and Rangers to contend with. It’s a mess of the Birds’ own making.
If you want to look on the more optimistic side, one thing about the 2026 Orioles is that they’ve been wildly unpredictable, sometimes in positive ways. There have been plenty of instances earlier this season where we thought their goose was cooked, only for the O’s to rattle off a bunch of improbable wins — like almost sweeping the Rays twice last month — to climb back into the fringes of the race. But something about the way the Orioles have lost these last few games just doesn’t inspire hope of a similar bounceback. Their performance in the four-game set against the Red Sox was nothing short of pitiful, with all the body language of a team that’s ready for the season to end.
Anyway, here come the Guardians. Let’s see what happens!
Game 1: Monday, 1:35 PM, MASN
LHP Joey Cantillo (9-8, 3.91) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (9-9, 4.30)
If the Orioles couldn’t even score against the Rockies’ pathetic staff — let alone Boston’s excellent one — then they’re going to have their hands full with a Guardians team that is built on pitching. Up first is Cantillo, who served as a swing man last year before converting to full-time starting this season. He’s been a solid mid-rotation starter with a 108 ERA+, though his control has been a problem with a league-leading 72 walks. He faced the Birds on April 19 and gave up four runs, including Taylor Ward’s first dinger as an Oriole. The wacky lineup that day featured Weston Wilson at third, Blaze Alexander in center field, and Johnathan Rodriguez batting cleanup.
Speaking of wacky lineups, will the Orioles continue to shoot themselves in the foot by again benching all of their lefty bats against a southpaw? They did it three times in their four games against the Red Sox, and we saw how that worked out. Please, Orioles, be a serious franchise and let Samuel Basallo actually play against lefties. Give Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, or Jackson Holliday a chance, too. We’ve seen more than enough of Leody Taveras and Carlos Narváez lately. It doesn’t matter if they bat right-handed when they can’t hit!
Just like in that April 19 game, Cantillo will square off against fellow lefty Trevor Rogers. Rogers is coming off of a brilliant performance in Colorado, racking up a career-high 11 strikeouts in a game that the O’s bullpen squandered. Trevor’s previous start against the Guardians this year, though, was a rough one: six runs in five innings, including two dingers by future Hall of Famer José Ramírez. Ramírez is having his worst year in more than a decade, with just a .708 OPS, but he has always torched the Orioles with a career .306 AVG and .972 OPS in 67 games.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP Tanner Bibee (5-15, 4.06) vs. RHP Brandon Young (9-3, 3.42)
Do you think Shane Baz is the most criminally unsupported starting pitcher in baseball? Tanner Bibee says, “hold my beer.” The Cleveland right-hander has received the worst run support in the majors this year at just 2.90 runs per game (Baz, at 3.02, is second worst). It’s too bad Bibee and Baz aren’t going head to head; that’s a game that would be guaranteed to go scoreless until, like, the 14th inning.
Bibee, like Baz, has pitched much better than his 5-15 record would imply, with a slightly above average 102 ERA+. Bibee pitched six shutout innings against the Orioles in April, but true to form, the Guardians didn’t score while he was on the mound and he left with a no-decision.
Brandon Young takes the mound for the Orioles with 137 innings under his belt, by far the most of any season in his pro career (his high mark in the minors was 111). If he’s fatigued, he’s hiding it well. Young has thrown two straight quality starts, and he continues to be a good-luck charm for the Orioles, who are 18-6 when he pitches. Young’s only previous start against the Guardians came last July, when he allowed three runs in 4.1 innings and gave up a homer to — guess who? — José Ramírez.
Game 3: Wednesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
LHP Foster Griffin (3-1, 4.06 for CLE; 15-4, 3.26 overall) vs. RHP Shane Baz (5-15, 3.91)
The aforementioned Baz will make his 29th start of the year, carrying a ludicrously poor record despite having the best ERA of any O’s starter besides Young. Two starts ago, he finally earned his first win since June, but he fell back into his extreme hard-luck ways against the Red Sox, getting saddled with the loss despite giving up just one run in 6.1 innings. I wonder if Shane is regretting his decision to commit to a long-term contract with a team that refuses to score runs for him.
Baz lost to the Guardians in April with a six-inning, four-run performance. You’ll never believe who hit a homer against him. OK, yes you will: it was José Ramírez. Have I mentioned that Ramírez loves hitting against the O’s?
The Guards will counter with Foster Griffin, a stupendous reclamation story this year. The former first-round pick washed out of the majors in 2022 after just seven appearances, then went to Japan and revived his career in Nippon Professional Baseball for three seasons. The Nationals brought him back stateside this year and he was dominant enough to earn an NL All-Star nod and a deadline trade to Cleveland. Griffin hasn’t been quite as sharp for the Guardians, but again, he’s a lefty, so the Orioles will likely field their forfeit lineup.
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What do you expect from this series, Camden Chatters? Do the Orioles have any chance of resurrecting their season against the Guardians? Let us know in the comments.
