Every offseason, Nats fans look at the top free agents and wonder if this is finally the year we start spending again. Over the past few offseasons, that answer has been a resounding no. In fact, the Nats haven’t given more than$15 million to a free agent since the 2019-20 offseason. If the Nats were to spend, I think Michael King would be a great fit.
Outside of Tarik Skubal, there is not a better free agent starter on the market than Michael King. Over the course of his 3 years in San Diego, King has
proven to be a top of the rotation arm who saves his best for the biggest moments. That is exactly the type of arm the Nats need alongside Cade Cavalli.
In 29 career playoff innings, King has a 1.86 ERA with a strikeout rate over 30%. If you want to make a deep run in October, you need pitchers who rise to the occasion. We saw that in 2019 with Stephen Strasburg and last October with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Michael King has a proven track record of being a dog in the playoffs.
Obviously the Lerner family will have to finally open their wallets to get this done, but the Nats do have a unique advantage. King actually played with Nats manager Blake Butera in college. The two were teammates for two seasons at Boston College and are friends.
When the Nats faced the Padres earlier this season, Butera said it was weird to face King. He said they wouldn’t be friends while he was on the mound. How cool would it be if the two college pals reunited. There cannot be many instances of MLB managers coaching a former college teammate.
That relationship, alongside the Nats being a team on the rise, could open some doors. However, this would be a massive financial commitment. King is expected to opt out of the remaining 2-years and $58 million left on his contract. That means the 31-year old will command over $100 million on a long term deal.
Would the Lerner’s do this and would it even be smart? While I think it is a good idea, there are some yellow flags in King’s profile. Despite posting a 3.21 ERA across 185 innings, King’s FIP of 4.13 and xFIP of 4.34 are less impressive. However, King has shown a rare year over year ability to outperform his peripherals. His career ERA is 3.23 despite a 3.92 xERA, a 3.67 FIP and 3.84 xFIP. King’s career low strikeout rate is also a potential concern.
However, the way he pitches in big games makes me bullish on him. King has that increasingly rare ability to add and subtract velocity when he needs it. In the regular season, his fastball was in the 93-94 range, but he was consistently running it up to 97 in October.
Entering his age 32 season, I would predict that King would command a 4 or 5 year deal somewhere in the $28-30 million AAV range. If I were the Nats, I would want a 4 year deal instead of 5, but with how little money is on the books, they should be able to afford this if they want the player.
Despite some mildly concerning peripherals, I really like King’s pitch mix. His sinker has a ton of movement and he also has a sweeper that moves away from hitters. King also possesses an elite changeup that has consistently flummoxed hitters over the years. In addition to the sinker, King has a 4-seamer with enough heat to beat hitters. Lastly, he flashes an occasional slider.
With the connection to Butera and his proven big game ability, this should be someone the Nats pursue. A top 4 of Cavalli, King, Connelly Early and Andrew Alvarez would be rock solid. With the offense already being good, that rotation would be playoff caliber.
Now it is time for ownership to prove their commitment. In a poll that Spencer Nusbaum did, 82.5% of fans said the Lerner’s should sell the team. If they want to change fan perception of their ownership, they need to spend.
King would be a good player to spend money on with his pedigree and relationship with the manager. The Nats need pitching and King is the best pitcher on the market who will not command close to half a billion dollars.
Even if they don’t sign King, the Nats need to become bigger players in free agency again. Either that or actively search for upgrades on the trade market. After this season’s step forward, it is time for the Nats to push towards their first playoff appearance since 2019.
