No. 2 Indiana is all set for a historic Big Ten Football Championship game against No. 1 Ohio State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
The Hoosiers and Buckeyes have spent the bulk of the latter half of the season at first in second in both major polls and the College Football Playoff rankings. The entirety of the Big Ten season has come down to this, two undefeated 12-0 teams battling it out. Winner gets bragging rights, the conference title and in all likelihood the No. 1 overall seed
in the playoff.
Here’s three keys to Indiana knocking off Ohio State on Saturday:
Finding a way through Matt Patricia’s Buckeye defense
There isn’t a better unit in all of college football this season than Ohio State’s defense.
It’s defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s first season in Columbus after Jim Knowles left for the same role with Penn State. He’s performed extremely well, better than Knowles. Ohio State has only allowed opponents to score into the double digits in four of their 12 games on the season and none have scored over 16 points, which happened on the road against Illinois.
At least two Buckeye defenders, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Arvell Reese, are among the very best players in the country, and not just at their positions. Downs won’t get Heisman consideration, but he’s the best player in college football.
Ohio State has allowed just 2,436 total yards, and nine touchdowns all season, both of which rank first nationally. Nobody’s found anything that consistently works.
Indiana’s offense has gained the fifth most yards nationally (5,806), has the fifth most yards per game (483.8) and scored the second most touchdowns (66) on the season. Ohio State hasn’t faced an offense as productive as Indiana but the Hoosiers have bristled against tough defenses at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
If Indiana can’t get points on the board, things will get bad.
Getting pressure on Julian Sayin
On the other side of the ball is one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Julian Sayin, with the Heisman Trophy likely coming down to him or Fernando Mendoza pending the results of this game.
Sayin hasn’t had to be superman, he’s been well protected and all he’s been asked to do is deliver an accurate ball to an elite group of receivers and he’s done that about as well as he possibly could have. He’s completed 78.9% of his passes on the season and led the offense down the field.
Indiana’s secondary is good but Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are going to be playing on Saturdays for a long time. Those guys are going to get open unless the Hoosiers can generate pressure on Sayin, which has been easier said than done this season, he’s been sacked just six times.
When Indiana’s won big games, it’s been because the pass rush has disrupted opposing passing attacks. The Hoosiers have the 12th most sacks nationally at 34 and have prioritized play in the trenches, but doing so without Kellan Wyatt will be a challenge.
Fernando Mendoza finding his groove against a top foe
Mendoza has played like one of if not the top quarterback in the country throughout the whole of Indiana’s season, but he’s struggled against the better defenses on the Hoosiers’ schedule and made critical errors in the closing minutes against all of Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
It’s not a news flash or new, deep analysis to say “well it’s hard to play against good defenses” but, well, it is. Those picks, all on the road, are a very real concern for Indiana. It’s good that he’s come back from literally every one and led a game-winning drive but it’d be better if that didn’t have to happen.
If Mendoza wants the Big Ten championship and the Heisman, he’s gonna have to go and take them.
