Buffalo Bills trending up/down ahead of Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Buffalo Bills are riding high into Week 14, fresh off a gritty 26-7 demolition of the Pittsburgh Steelers that snapped a mini-skid and boosted their record to 8-4. In a game that saw the Bills flip

the script after a sloppy first half — trailing 7-3 at the break — they unleashed a second-half shutout, piling up 249 rushing yards and forcing turnovers that turned Acrisure Stadium into a house of horrors for the struggling Steelers.

Quarterback Josh Allen wrote his name in the record books yet again with his 76th career rushing touchdown, breaking quarterback Cam Newton’s mark, while running back James Cook III bulldozed for 144 yards on 32 carries. Defensively, cornerback Christian Benford’s 17-yard fumble return for a score off quarterback Aaron Rodgers ignited the rout.

With a pivotal AFC clash against the 8-4 Bengals looming — where quarterback Joe Burrow’s aerial assault could exploit any cracks — the Bills’ momentum hinges on key contributors heating up. But not everyone’s firing on all cylinders. As always, we’ve dissected the tape, stats, and advanced metrics to spotlight the heroes surging into Cincinnati and the head-scratchers who need a reset. Let’s break it down.

Trending Up: Heroes Heating the Engine

These three Bills have helped spark Buffalo’s recent surge, blending solid Week 13 performances with season-long growth that could result in filling the stat sheet against Joe Burrow’s Bengals.

1. LB Shaq Thompson: “I’m the Captain now…”

Linebacker Shaq Thompson has been a revelation since suiting up for Buffalo, making the most of every opportunity and becoming an indispensable piece in the middle of Buffalo’s defense. In Week 13, Thompson led the team with nine tackles (five solo) and added much-needed physicality to the unit against the run game, earning a stellar 85.2 Pro Football Focus (PFF) overall grade — his highest since arriving. Over the season, Thompson’s amassed 41 total tackles (24 solo), one sack, one forced fumble, and 2.5 tackles for loss. Still, it’s his elite coverage that shines: an 82.9 PFF coverage grade (2nd among 84 qualifiers) and allowing just 2.9 yards per route run in man coverage.

Advanced metrics highlight his impact — Thompson’s 73.7 run-defense grade (30th) paired with a 63.5 pass-rush grade has him at an 83.1 overall PFF mark (6th at LB), a bounce-back year after his Panthers injury struggles. He’s been everything that’s been expected from defensive captain Terrel Bernard, on and off the field, where he’s taken the leadership role and has been fundamental with his leadership qualities and knowledge of the game. Shaq’s presence should be crucial to help the Bills’ defense stop the run game and contain Burrow’s quick-passing game efficiency (68.4% completion rate).

2. WR Tyrell Shavers: The Emerging Two-Way Threat

Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers has evolved from a practice-squad hopeful into a versatile contributor for the Bills, stepping up following Mack Hollins’ departure in free agency and taking over his previous role. His standout blocking in the run game has been a key factor in Buffalo’s ground dominance, particularly evident in Week 13 against the Steelers, where he logged a 78.2 PFF run-blocking grade while helping pave lanes for James Cook’s 144-yard outburst. On the season, Shavers boasts a 72.6 overall PFF run-blocking grade (top-25 among WRs with 200+ snaps), with 14 positive-graded blocks and just two negatives, per PFF — directly contributing to the Bills’ league-leading 5.1 yards per carry on outside zones.

Shavers’ hard-nosed playing style has earned him expanded opportunities in the offense: He’s played 294 offensive snaps through 12 games (36.9% share), including a team-high 61% among wideouts in the win against Pittsburgh and over 50% in four of the last five contests. This consistent field time — far exceeding his depth chart label — shows the trust coaches have in him, setting the stage for more targets as defenses key on wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid (when healthy).

When the ball does come his way, Shavers has proven he can make defenses pay: 11-for-17 for 172 yards and a touchdown this season (15.6 YPC), with a 12.6 aDOT (top-20 among WRs with 15+ targets), 19.4 air yards per route, 5.4 YAC/reception (best on the team), zero drops, and a 75% contested-catch rate. Add his 2025 preseason explosion (6-123-1, 20.5 YPC, 58-yard long) and it’s clear — Shavers has earned more looks and can become a big-play threat waiting to happen.

3. RB Ray Davis: The Power-Back Spark

Running back Ray Davis’ 2025 season had been quiet, but he was showing glimpses of what he could do with some big kickoff returns recently. In the rout of the Steelers, Davis erupted for 62 yards on nine carries (6.9 YPC), including a 15-yard burst that chewed clock in the fourth, earning a 77.9 PFF run grade (3rd on offense). His season line — 33 carries for 106 yards (3.2 YPC), plus four catches for 18 yards and one score — remind us of his limited opportunities (as the third back in the rotation) in a year where James Cook has established himself as one of the top workhorses in the NFL. However, Davis’ vision and burst are still there, as shown in Week 13, and he can certainly offer a breath for Buffalo’s go-to guy.

Facing a Bengals run D that’s surrendered 4.7 YPC (28th) and 120+ rush yards in five of their last seven, Davis could feast if given more reps, spelling Cook and punishing a front featuring defensive tackle B.J. Hill’s 3.2% stuff rate.

Trending Down: Head-Scratchers in Need of a Fix

While the Bills trend in the right direction, these three players have hit skids that may hurt the team’s chances in the short- and long-term.

1. LB Terrel Bernard: Injury Concerns Mounting

Linebacker Terrel Bernard has officially been ruled out for Week 14 against the Bengals with a lingering pectoral/shoulder issue, the latest chapter in a 2025 season plagued by injury. After missing three games earlier with an ankle sprain and now sidelined again, Bernard has appeared in only eight contests, routinely listed as questionable and clearly laboring when on the field. The results when playing hurt have been rough: a career-low 58.7 PFF overall grade, a 52.3 tackling grade, zero sacks, and opponents averaging 4.8 yards per carry when running at him — well below the standard he set in 2023 and 2024 as Buffalo’s green-dot wearer.

At a listed 6’1”, 224 pounds, Bernard has always looked smaller than those numbers and has relied on instincts and quickness rather than bulk. That profile has made him vulnerable to the weekly pounding of NFL run fits and pass-rush collisions, and the injury history is starting to pile up faster than anticipated for a 26-year-old in his fourth season. Long-term durability questions are fair when a linebacker built like a safety keeps landing on the injury report, and the Bills refuse to adjust their defensive schemes to keep him freer (getting bigger at defensive tackle, using more base 4-3 defense and less nickel, etc).

To make things worse for Bernard, Shaq Thompson, at 6’2” and 230 pounds with a decade of starting experience in the league, has brought the same leadership, communication, and green-dot responsibilities Bernard once owned — while adding a more physical presence against the run. At 31 years old, Thompson is no long-term answer, but I can see a world where he could be viewed as the guy in the middle for a couple of years more (if he can stay healthy on his own), especially in head coach Sean McDermott’s defense.

For now, it’s good to have options at a very important position. However, going forward, Thompson’s renaissance could make the Bills consider moving on from Bernard, as the league’s offenses have become bigger and have relied more on the ground game recently. Time will tell.

2. TE Dalton Kincaid: Fragility Undermining Potential

Tight end Dalton Kincaid’s 2025 season has been a tale of tantalizing talent interrupted by a fragility that’s turning heads for all the wrong reasons, with multiple injuries sidelining the third-year tight end and raising red flags about his long-term reliability. After missing one game with an oblique strain early on and now three straight with a hamstring tweak suffered in Week 10 against the Miami Dolphins — compounded by a resurfacing knee issue (echoing his 2024 Grade 2 PCL sprain that cost him four contests) — Kincaid has suited up in just eight of 13 games. He’s questionable for Week 14 in Cincinnati, has been limited in practice, and was spotted in a knee brace. That’s a far cry from the every-down mismatch the Bills envisioned when drafting him 25th overall in 2023.

When healthy and schemed into clear passing downs, Kincaid remains a nightmare for linebackers and safeties. His season stats are impressive — 29 receptions on 36 targets for 448 yards (15.4 YPC) and 4 touchdowns — plus a 155.6 passer rating when targeted (2nd among TEs), 80.6% catch rate, zero lost fumbles on those touches, and a long reception of 47 yards. Advanced metrics glow brighter — 15.4 yards per reception (5th at TE), 6.7 yards after catch per grab (2nd), 9.5 average depth of target, and just 2 drops on 152 routes run (PFF). Versus linebackers, Kincaid’s torched his opponents for 12.4 yards per target; against safeties, his 6.8 YAC average creates YAC chains that Buffalo’s run-after-catch game thrives on.

Yet Kincaid’s inability to anchor as a blocker caps him as a low-usage specialist, not the true TE1 the Bills need to lead the room on an every-down basis. His 58.7 PFF run-blocking grade ranks bottom quartile, with frequent whiffs in gap schemes that force him off the field on early downs — limiting him to 166 pass snaps (29th at TE) and a 29% snap share overall.

This pass-game conundrum, paired with his being injury prone (five missed games already), makes him a boom-or-bust piece: explosive when targeted (13.3% team air-yard share) but so many times absent when needed, hurting Buffalo’s 12th-ranked TE production. Against the Bengals, Kincaid’s health roulette could make the passing attack unstoppable if he can suit up — or he could be missed badly if he can’t, with his health directly impacting the team’s chances in a vital matchup.

3. EDGE A.J. Epenesa: Pressure Drought

Defensive end A.J. Epenesa’s pass-rush regression is alarming for a rotational piece in Buffalo’s defensive line group. In Week 13, he posted zero pressures on 22 pass-rush snaps, a dismal 42.4 PFF grade, and whiffed on running back Jaylen Warren twice in run support. His season totals — 22 tackles (12 solo), 2.5 sacks, 20 pressures, and one interception — pale in comparison to his 2024 breakout (6 sacks), reflected in a 60.5 overall PFF grade (74th among EDGE rushers) and an 8.2% pressure rate (down from 12.1% last year).

With just two hits and 15 hurries, his production is middling at best, though 3 batted passes offer some silver lining. Still, a 4.1% win rate ranks in the bottom 50% league-wide. Buffalo’s overall team pressure rate has dipped to 39.2% (from 43.2% early in the season), and Epenesa’s struggles in sub-packages (allowing 2.3 yards per carry) have compounded issues against the run. Without defensive end Joey Bosa in the lineup and facing Joe Burrow’s quick game (2.45 seconds average release time), Epenesa will need to rediscover his form to avoid being exposed further.

Honorable Mentions

Trending Up:

RB James Cook (144 yards, 4.5 YAC/att in Week 13; 1,124 season rush yards)

WR Keon Coleman (1-yard TD grab, 78.2 PFF grade)

CB Christian Benford (fumble return TD, 82.1 coverage grade)

Trending Down:

WR Joshua Palmer (knee/ankle injuries sidelined him for Week 13, just 18 catches for 272 yards on 29 targets season-long, DNP in Wednesday’s practice)