The Commanders’ season death spiral continued into its fourth week with a 22-44 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Commanders fell behind with the touchdown on Lions’ first offensive drive and were really a threatened to retake the lead.
The Commanders enter Week 11 with a 3-7 record and three remaining games against teams with 7 or 8 wins. The offense ranks 13th in the league in efficiency (0.046 EPA/play), 22nd in scoring and 18th in total yards. The main problems are on defense, where they rank 30th
in efficiency (+0.157 EPA/play – you want that figure to be negative), 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, 30th in turnovers, 27th in first downs allowed, 31st in passing yards, 32nd in Net Yards/Pass Attempt, and 23rd in rushing yards allowed.
A major contributor to the disappointing performance is the rash of injuries to key starters and depth pipelines at some positions. The team flew to Miami with its star QB and WR1 rehabbing from injuries, and missing all of its starters at DE and boundary CB, one Safety and with only one starter remaining at WR. Commanders’ fans have been calling for the team to give the younger players a try, and they have been dropping like flies. First Javontae Jean-Baptiste, then Luke McAffrey, and now Ben Sinnott and Treylon Burks, who only signed with the team four weeks ago.
At this juncture, I feel it is time to introduce Hogs Haven readers to some Australian slang. If you still feel the need to read the Stats and Snaps to see how the boys in Burgundy and Gold did each week, despite the score line and everything else that has gone wrong this season, you are probably “rusted on”, a “tragic”, or both.
Football is deeply engrained in Australian culture. Australians have such an appetite for “the footy” that they aren’t content with just one professional league. There are three major codes – Aussie Rules, Rugby League, Rugby Union – as well as minor codes like soccer and gaelic football. There are even a few minor league American football teams, here and there.
Most Australians are born into fandom of their local team, although levels of commitment do vary. Occasionally one comes across an Aussie who isn’t into sport, such as the lovely Mrs Bris Vegas, but they are something of a rarity.
While Brisbane residents have been fortunate to enjoy two premierships in the last few months (Broncos NRL, Lions AFL), certain Australian fanbases have not been so lucky. The Parramatta Eels NRL club, for example, is now in the 37th year of a premiership drought, which should be relatable to long-term Redskins fans. Attendance at their games may have dwindled over the years, but there will always be fans in the stadium. Fans who keep coming back, week after week, no matter the record, are referred to as “rusted on”. They couldn’t break away from their beloved team, even if they tried.
A “tragic” has a lot of in common with a rusted on fan but with one key difference. A “tragic” refers to a devotee of a sporting team, performing artist, a cause, or whatever, who continues to hold out hope no matter what. A rusted on fan may well know that there’s no way that Dan Quinn can salvage the season, but he’s going to watch each of the remaining 7 games, regardless. If you are still holding out hope for a post-season appearance, then you are a Commanders tragic. Wear it with pride. It is a badge of honor.
For those of you rusted on fans and tragics who keep coming back for more, no matter how bad things get, here are the Stats and Snaps from the Commanders 22-44 loss to the Detroit Lions at Northwest Stadium. In actual fact, it wasn’t all bad.
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
Biggest Plays for Commanders
Q3, 7:09, 4th and 3 at DET 4: Marcus Mariota pass complete short right to Deebo Samuel for 4 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.97
Q4, 10:04, 4th and 5 at DET 43: Marcus Mariota pass complete deep left to Deebo Samuel for 19 yards (DET challenge unsuccessful). EPA 3.57
Q3, 9:38, 3rd and 4 at DET 48: Marcus Mariota pass complete deep left to Treylon Burks for 37 yards (DPI penalty on Rock Ya-Sin declined). EPA 3.29
Q2, 9:09, 2nd and 9 at WAS 26: Marcus Mariota pass complete deep middle to Jaylin Lane for 41 yards. EPA 3.18
Q2, 5:05, 4th and 1 at DET 14: Marcus Mariota pass complete short middle to Zach Ertz for 8 yards. EPA 3.17
Q4, 11:59, 2nd and 7 at WAS 22: Marcus Mariota pass complete deep right to Zach Ertz for 30 yards. EPA 2.32
Q1, 8:24: Noah Igbinoghene kickoff return for 46 yds. EPA 2.13
Biggest Plays for Lions
Q4, 12:57, 2nd and 2 at WAS 43: Jahmyr Gibbs right end for 43 yards, touchdown. EPA 4.27
Q1, 1:58, 3rd and 7 at WAS 9: Jared Goff pass complete short left to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yards, touchdown. EPA 3.3
Q3, 6:22, 2nd and 7 at DET 21: Jared Goff pass complete short left to Jameson Williams for 41 yards. EPA 3.04
Q2, 0:59, 4th and 1 at WAS 18: Jared Goff pass complete short left to Kalif Raymond for 10 yards. EPA 2.97
Q4, 6:57: Matt Gay onside kick for 10 yds returned by Sione Vaki for no gain. EPA 2.59
Q2, 9:51, 2nd and 5 at WAS 13: Jahmyr Gibbs right end for 13 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.39
Q3, 12:12, 1st and 10 at WAS 14: Jared Goff pass complete short right to Jameson Williams for 14 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.35
Q1, 8:29, 2nd and 3 at WAS 14: Jared Goff pass complete short left to Jahmyr Gibbs for 14 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.26
Q3, 7:05, DET 2: Two Point Attempt: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete intended for intended for Deebo Samuel. EPA -2
Q4, 6:57, DET 1: Two Point Attempt: Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushes, conversion fails. EPA -2 Q1, 0:01, 3rd and 9 at DET 49: Marcus Mariota sacked by Brian Branch for 13 yards. EPA -2.01
OFFENSE
With all the negativity surrounding this game, people might have overlooked the very good performance by QB Marcus Mariota. The veteran backup completed 16/22 passes (72.7%, ADOT 13.8 yds) for 213 yds and 2 TDs, while avoiding turnovers. He did take 2 sacks for 18 yds. According to PFF, Mariota was only pressured on 26.9% of dropbacks, for which he can thank great blocking by his offensive line. Also, he got rid of the ball in an average of 2.69 sec.
On the ground, he gained 22 yds on 5 rushing attempts (4.4 Y/A).
Mariota’s performance earned an 82.8 Total QBR, 4th highest in the league in Week 10, and the best mark by a Washington QB this season.
The Commanders’ RBs found it tough going this week, as they once again faced stacked boxes. The advanced stats differed somewhat between PFF and PFR, but they painted a similar picture of two of the three backs struggling to find room to run.
Bill Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez took 77% of the RB carries and each averaged just 2.7 Y/A. Bill ran for 30 yds and CRod for just 16 yds on 6 attempts. According to PFR, Bill averaged just 1.6 Yards Before Contact/Attempt, while CRod was slightly worse at 1.5 YBC/Att. PFF’s figures were even more dismal: Croskey-Merritt 1.09 YBC/Att, Rodriguez 0.83 YBC/Att.
Despite the low rushing average, CRod’s runs were effective at advancing the ball. He compiled 2 first downs and a TD in 6 rush attempts and achieved a 66.7% Rushing Success Rate.
Jeremy McNichols was once again the team’s most successful runner on a per touch basis. He took 5 carries for 25 yds (5.0 Y/A) and 2 first downs, and achieved an 80% success rate. He also caught one pass for 4 yds.
Treylon Burks has been with the team less than four weeks. On Sunday, he was the Commanders’ leading receiver, catching 3/3 targets for 58 yards and 2 first downs (66.7% Success Rate). His receptions included 1 contested catch and had a team high 4.7 YAC/rec. He was the second most productive receiver on the team at a very impressive 4.46 Y/RR. In keeping with the season theme, he injured a finger in the game and had surgery during the week. Fortunately, Dan Quinn reported that the injury is not expected to keep him out for long.
Jaylin Lane was just targeted once for a 41 yd reception, making him the most productive receiver on the team at a whopping 5.86 Y/RR, and third on the team in total receiving yards.
Deebo Samuel caught 4/5 passes (80% rec, ADOT 5.2 yds) for 29 yds, 1 TD and 2 first downs (60% Success Rate). Robbie Chosen caught 1/4 targets for 17 yds.
Zach Ertz had the second most receiving yards on the team in total receiving yards. He caught 4/5 targets (80% rec, ADOT 16.4 yds) for 54 yds and 2 first downs (60% Success Rate). He caught his only contested target, and was third on the team in receiving productivity at a respectable 2.45 Y/RR.
John Bates caught 1/2 tgts for 6 yds.
Ben Sinnott caught his only target for a 4 yd TD. Sinnott eclipsed Bates this week with a 65.1 PFF Run Block Grade, making him the highest graded non-OL on the team. Bates was not far behind at 63.4.
Despite everything happening around them, the offensive line had a great day in pass protection for the most part. Lions’ DE Aidan Hutchinson had generated pressure on 18.2% of pass rush snaps through Week 9, and averaged 1 sack per game. The Commanders’ OL held him to a 7.7% Pressure Rate with no sacks. That was his lowest Pressure Rate of the season, and only the second time he has been held to under 13%.
LT Laremy Tunsil had a perfect game in pass protection, with no pressures allowed. His 77.6 Run Block Grade was also the highest on the team. And it was his fourth game in a row without a penalty. It was his best game as a Commander from a statistical perspective.
LG Chris Paul allowed just 1 QB hurry in 28 dropbacks. I wouldn’t be too worried about his 3.6% Pressure Rate being a little high for an iOL, given the small sample. His 43.0 Run Block Grade was the second lowest on the team, and possibly more concerning.
C Tyler Biadasz allowed 1 hurry and 1 sack in 28 dropbacks. His 7.1% Pressure Rate was around twice the acceptable limit for an iOL. That might not be a concern if it was just this game, but he has been allowing pressures and sacks consistently. His 70.3 Run Block Grade, on the other hand was third highest on the team.
RG Sam Cosmi allowed 1 hurry in pass protection (3.6% Pressure Rate). He received a 57.3 Run Block Grade.
Rookie RT Josh Conerly Jr has been dropped in the deep end this season, with weekly matchups against the best pass rushers in the NFL. He struggled initially, but has been making great strides in recent games. Against the Lions, he allowed just 1 QB hit in 28 dropbacks. His 3.6% Pressure Rate was his second lowest of the season. Anything below 5% is good for an OT. His 76.8 Run Blocking Grade was the second highest on the team, and just a hair behind his bookend Laremy Tunsil.
Conerly was flagged for two 5 yard false start penalties. They were the only two penalties on the Commanders’ offense in the game.
DEFENSE
The Commanders were down to just three edge defenders with Jalyn Holmes a healthy scratch. Some of the workload was shared by the DTs.
Jacob Martin recorded QB hits in 23 pass rush attempts. His 8.7% Pressure Rate was a big improvement from 0% last week, but still about half what it needs to be. He also made 2 tackles and 1 stop.
Von Miller recorded 1 QB hit and 1 hurry in 15 pass rush attempts (Pressure Rate 13.3%). He also made 1 tackle assist to contribute to a stop. Miller dropped into coverage twice and was targeted once with no reception.
Preston Smith recorded 1 QB hurry in 13 pass rush snaps (7.7% Pressure Rate). He had 5 tackle assists supporting 2 defensive stops. PFF blames him for a missed tackle, but PFR did not see it.
Javon Kinlaw played the most snaps among the DTs and stayed on the interior for the most part. He recorded 1 tackle and 1 assist with no stops. He generated 3 hurries on 23 pass rush attempts, which would be good for an ED and is great for an iOL.
Kinlaw drew two penalties: an offside for 5 yards and a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for knocking a referee’s cap when he lost his cool about midway through the second quarter.
Sheldon Day is nominally a DT, but took 53.8% of his snaps at DE. He made 1 tackle and 2 assists with 1 defensive stop. He generated 1 QB hit on 16 pass rush snaps (6.3% Pressure Rate).
Eddie Goldman stuck to his usual duties on the interior. He made 1 tackle and 1 assist with 1 defensive stop. He did not get near the passer in 20 dropbacks.
Johnny Newton had 4 tackle assists, with one contributing to a stop. He did not pressure the passer in 13 pass rush attempts.
Daron Payne’s only impression on the stat sheet was a missed tackle recorded by PFF. He also drew a 1 yd penalty and got himself ejected from the game and suspended from this week’s game against the Dolphins for fighting back after 202 lb Amon-Ra St Brown punched him.
Payne’s and Kinlaw’s penalties were the only penalties on the defense in the entire game.
As usual, Bobby Wagner led the Commanders with 6 tackles 3 assists and 5 total stops. He also led the team in run stops (4) and run stop rate, at a very impressive 12.1%. He also recorded 1 QB hit in 7 pass rush attempts.
In coverage, PFF recorded 3 rec/4 tgt for 35 yds. PFR recorded 2/4 for 17 yds.
Frankie Luvu made 3 tackles and missed 3 others. He made 1 defensive stop. He generated 1 QB hurry in 10 pass rush attempts. In coverage, he allowed 2 rec/2 tgt for 29 yds and 1 pass batted down.
Jordan Magee played less than half as much as the starters. He logged 3 tackle assists and 1 stop. In coverage, he allowed 2 rec/2 tgt for 31 yds and 1 TD.
The Commanders were forced to shuffle the deck chairs with Marshon Lattimore on IR and Trey Amos missing half the game with an injury. Jonathan Jones was the primary right CB, Mike Sainristil took the bulk of slot duties and everyone took turns rotating in at LCB.
According to PFF, Mike Sainristil was targeted 6 times and allowed 4 receptions for 41 yds and 2 TDs (1.41 Y/Cov Snp). PFR counted 5 rec/8 tgt for 59 yds and 2 TDs (2.03 Y/Cov Snp).
Mikey was 3rd on the team in combined tackles, with 3 solo efforts, 5 assists and 2 stops.
Jonathan Jones also had 6 tgts and 4 rec per PFF, allowing 54 yds (1.74 Y/Cov Snp), with 1 PBU. PFR had nearly identical stats but only counted 5 tgts. Jones made 4 tackles, but no stops.
The stat services differed most on Noah Igbinoghene’s coverage performance. PFF counted 2 rec/2 tgts for 51 yds in 15 coverage snps (3.40 Y/Cov Snp), which is dreadful despite the low snap counts. PFR painted a much rosier picture with 1 rec/1 tgt for 10 yds (0.67 Y/Cov Snp). Iggy had 4 tackle assists, but no stops.
Before leaving the game with a broken fibula, Trey Amos allowed 3 rec/3 tgts for 38 yds in just 16 coverage snaps (2.37 Y/Cov Snp). He also made 2 tackles and 1 stop.
Quan Martin tied with Bobby Wagner for most combined tackles (9), including 3 tackles (vs 6 for Wags) and 6 assists, but no stops. PFF counted 2 missed tackles which PFR did not see. He played the most coverage snaps of anyone on the team (35 snaps) and only allowed 1 rec/1 tgt for 8 yards.
Jeremy Reaves made 4 tackles and 3 assists, with 1 stop. In 30 coverage snaps, he was targeted 3 times, allowing 2 rec for 22 yds per PFF, with 1 PBU. PFR counted 3 rec/4 tgt for 63 yds.
Darnell Savage made 1 tackle. He allowed 1 rec/1 tgt for 11 yds in 8 coverage snaps.
Percy Butler was only on the field for 1 defensive play and registered a tackle assist. According to PFR, he allowed 1 reception for 17 yards on the play. PFF thought the receiver was another defender’s responsibility.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Noah Igbinoghene took over kick return duties following Luke McCaffrey’s injury, which made him the busiest of the teams specialists. He had 7 returns for 191 yds (27.3 Y/A), with a long return of 46 yds. That is almost a good half season’s work for a lot of kick returners around the league.
Matt Gay was a perfect 1/1 on field goals, connecting on his only attempt from 44 yards out, and was also 1/1 on extra point.
Tress Way once again put himself in contention for team MVP. He punted 4 times for 200 yards, landing 2 inside the Lions’ 20 yard line, with a long of 56. Thanks to Larry Izzo’s punt coverage unit, the Lions were held to just 3 total return yards on 3 attempts. Through Week 10 Tressler’s 3.4 yd punt return average was the lowest in the NFL by a full yard (minimum 10 punts).
Tyler Ott was a model of accuracy and precision.
Jaylin Lane had the night off from punt return duties, because the Lions didn’t need to punt.
Despite suffering a concussion, which kept him off the flight to Madrid, LB Ale Kaho led the special teams with 2 tackles in coverage. Tyler Owens made as many tackles, but also missed one. Nick Bellore and Chris Moore had 1 tackle apiece.
This week’s star of the coverage units was Johnny Newton, who blocked an extra point attempt.
