It’s come down to this. The final 15 games of September will tell the tale for the Astros’ post-season chances. We have been following the changes in the Fangraphs playoff model. For the first time during this second half, the Mariners’ probability of winning the AL West (57%) is higher than the Astros (39%). But the Astros still have 76% odds of making the playoffs. 3 out of 4 chances of making either a division or wild card entry into the playoffs is pretty good. But a 24% chance of missing the playoffs is not
remote. It can happen.
While it’s not very controversial to say that September will determine the Astros post season position, the Astros have started September on a poor note. The Astros are 4 wins and 7 losses in September. For the remaining season, every single game counts. A lot. This sounds like coach-speak, but it’s true. If the Astros go 8-7 the rest of the way, they have a decent chance at winning division. If the Astros win 1 game less and go 7-8, the Astros likely don’t win the division. It’s the difference between 87 wins and 86. (As I say this, you should be aware that these statements also depend on whether the Mariners are “hot” down the stretch.)
For what it’s worth, the Fangraphs model does not give the Rangers much chance at the division title (4%) but a punchers’ chance at the wild card (24%). If the Astros go 7-8 or 6-9 the rest of the way, they could find themselves fighting the Rangers for a wild card. In yesterday’s Fangraphs chat with Dave Symborski (the creator of ZIPS projections), he was asked if he “buys” the Rangers right now. His answer: “ I’m not. the offense just scares me”
Exactly 12 months ago, the Astros held an identical 79-68 record. But the Astros division odds were quite high (96%) at that point. The Astros started September with a worse September record through the 12th than this season (3 wins and 6 losses). But the Astros went 10-5 through the rest of the month.
At this point in 2023, the Astros had a better record (82 wins) and good odds for winning the division (66%). But the Astros went 8 – 9 from that point forward. Four of the 8 wins were in the last four games of 2023. The Astros ended the season tied with the Rangers for the division, but took the title on tie breaker. The Rangers went on to win the World Series.
From an analytic perspective, there is no reason to believe that the recent slumping performance tells us more than full season performance about what will happen in the immediate future.
Let’s look at the components of the team so far in September.
Starting Pitching
Season 6th 3.92 ERA 3.83 x-ERA
September only 22d 4.47 ERA 3.57 x-ERA
Relief Pitching
Season 5th 3.73 ERA 3.53 x-ERA
September only 6th 3.55 ERA 3.05 x-ERA
Offense
Season BA: 8th .252 wRC+ 15th 99
September only BA: 16th .244 wRC+ 17th 96
Some observations:
My intuitive feeling is that the bullpen will be the greatest problem or issue for these next 15 games. But the stats don’t align with that view. The relief pitching has even been better in September than the full season. I feel like we have some weak spots in the bullpen, but the bullpen looks pretty good from an ERA and x-ERA perspective so far.
The starting pitching in September has performed significantly worse than for the full season. But the x-ERA for the September rotation is the same—even better—than for the season. The starting pitchers have faced some bad luck in the early September period. The Astros’ starters’ x-ERA is the fifth best in September. Hopefully the bad luck turns around and the rotation returns as one of the better units in baseball.
The offense has struggled a bit in early September. But it isn’t THAT much worse, statistically, than the full season. The batting average is down, but the wRC+ is down only marginally. The underlying stats support the notion that the offense is positioned to improved. All of the x-stats in September are higher than the actual stats (for instance .444 x-SLG vs. 3.99 SLG and .244 BA vs. .269 x-SLG). And the Astros are hitting the ball hard in the month (EV 90 106.1, ranked 7th).
Perhaps the best hope is that the Astros offense will be more productive over the next 15 days, with some of the hard hit balls falling into the outfield. That wouldn”t be surprising, given the peripheral offensive statistics.
There is plenty to chew on in these comparisons, but the answer will only come at the end of the season. At this point, it’s up to the players, and not prior statistics. They should give the next 15 games the same focus and intensity as playoff games.
