There comes a time when those of us on the periphery of the sports commentary game come across an existential crisis. On the one hand, controversy sells. The hot take generation has taken over in full force and you either get on the train or get run over by it. Yet, one can’t help but feel sick about taking part in the whole thing. That obviously, has come to the forefront with the whole discussion involving C.J. Stroud. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse, but a part of cutting through the noise
is deciphering if there is anything useful there.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is one voice. He is one prominent voice but he is still one voice. His opinion hinges on two things that are very debatable. The first is that there are teams out there willing to give two first round picks for C.J. Stroud. One could easily foresee the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, and even the Minnesota Vikings being in the quarterback business. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, and Arizona Cardinals likely will be too, but their situations are more complicated.
Kirk Cousins is out there. Tua Tagvailola is out there. Kyler Murray is out there. This doesn’t even mention Mac Jones and Malik Willis as well. So, the question is where Stroud hypothetically fits into that dynamic. The second contention from Fitzpatrick was that the Texans could move forward with Davis Mills as their starting quarterback. I’m not sure which contention is more outrageous.
If a team were willing to give two ones for Stroud I probably would say yes on the spot. Of course, that is considering my personal opinion of Stroud and how he fits on this team. That is complicated by the second opinion. I don’t think Mills is viable as a starting quarterback on a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Obviously, any such deal would have to include a viable plan moving forward.
It is easy to take two and two and get seventeen. At the end of the day, neither Fitzpatrick nor McShay know that Stroud is available. They are pontificating about it. We need to understand the difference. If Stroud is available then how much is a team willing to pay? I would not be willing to give up two first rounders for Stroud if I were an NFL general manager. Of course, I am not.
We are also assuming a universe where the Texans are willing to listen. We don’t know that they are. This is one of the areas of analysis/commentary that makes me feel ill. The more guys in the national and local media theorize that Stroud is available then it becomes a thing. When it becomes a thing then the Texans have to address it. C.J. Stroud has to address it. His agent has to address it. His teammates have to address it. That’s ultimately not fair to them.
I readily admit that. So, I make no bones about the fact that this likely pours more gasoline on the fire. However, any conversation needs to have some parameters. So, I wanted to lay out the two main parameters for such a conversation. If any one of them is not met then the Texans can’t move forward with said conversation.
What’s the compensation?
Fitzpatrick said two first round picks. I’m dubious as to whether that is going to be the compensation, but even then those packages are not created equal. The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets routinely suck. Are you getting their 2026 first rounder or are they giving you 2027 and 2028? In that case, which one is destined to be worse? For instance, if the Pittsburgh Steelers offer you a 2026 and 2027 first rounder then that is considerably less attractive than if the Jets, Browns, or Cardinals swing a deal.
As it stands, I am not saying no to two firsts from the Steelers. If that is the best offer you still have to consider it. In just this particular draft you could end up drafting two interior offensive linemen in the first round and almost totally reshape your line. Moreover, not paying a quarterback huge money has other ramifications in terms of re-signing your own free agents and/or a big name lineman or running back.
If I am right and no team is offering you two firsts then is there anyone offering a first and another pick? At what point do you draw the line. Is a first and third acceptable? Does it have to be a first and second? What happens if someone offers three picks, but none of them are firsts? This is where things get interesting and that is a question only the Texans can answer.
Who is the starting quarterback?
It cannot be Davis Mills. That is a no go if you really think you want to make it to an AFC title game. If you are okay being a fringe playoff team then I suppose you can go with Mills, but he has shown that he is not a championship quarterback. So, if not Mills then who? There has to be an answer to that question. Obviously, there are a number of possibilities depending on when you pull the trigger on a Stroud trade. The options in the draft are limited, but there might be some after the first round.
There are quarterbacks on the free agency scrap heap that have started games in the NFL and you can always hope for the next reclamation project. Kyler and Tua are potential cuts if they cannot be traded. Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins are also trade candidates as well. At this point, I am not advocating any of these choices necessarily. It needs to be about Nick Caley’s offense and who is most equipped to run it. Any decision on trading Stroud would be made in part because they feel he is not the best choice to run it moving forward. So, you have to bring in someone that can at least compete with Mills that is a system fit. It seems like this part would be harder than the trade portion. Of course, I’m just pouring more gasoline over here.
