Illinois basketball is on its way to a sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance and should be in prime position to make a deep run in March. The Illini have put together an impressive first 14 games of the season, but there is still work to be done if they want to secure a protected (top 16) overall seed on Selection Sunday.
Let’s take a deeper look at Illinois’ current NCAA Tournament résumé. The metrics below are all used by the selection committee to evaluate teams and determine seeding:
- KPI: 19
- SOR: 19
- WAB: 14
- BPI: 10
- KenPom: 8
- Bart Torvik: 10
Quadrant
Records
- Quad 1A: 0–3
- Quad 1: 3–3
- Quad 2: 2–0
- Quad 3: 0–0
- Quad 4: 6–0
All these metrics factor into March Madness seeding, along with the classic “who did you beat and where did you beat them?” KPI, SOR, and WAB are resume-based metrics that evaluate a team’s body of work to this point, while BPI, KenPom, and Bart Torvik are analytical models that project how strong a team will be based on efficiency numbers.
For comparison, here is what Illinois’ team sheet looked like during the 2023–24 season before earning a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament (WAB was not yet included on the team sheet):
- KPI: 10
- SOR: 9
- BPI: 12
- KenPom: 10
- Bart Torvik: 11
Quadrant Records
- Quad 1A: 2–5
- Quad 1: 8–6
- Quad 2: 6–1
- Quad 1 & 2: 14-7
- Quad 3: 7–1
- Quad 4: 5–0
As you can see, that three-seeded Illinois team, which ultimately made an Elite Eight run, had slightly stronger resume metrics. Those numbers, along with quadrant records, will naturally improve with more quality wins.
This season’s Illinois team has not suffered a loss outside of Quad 1, which will carry significant weight with the selection committee if the Illini can keep a clean sheet. However, they will need to continue building their Quad 1 and Quad 2 resume as conference play progresses.
Fortunately, the remaining schedule offers no shortage of opportunities. While quadrant designations can change based on NET rankings, here is how Illinois’ upcoming games currently project:
- Rutgers — Quad 4
- @ Iowa — Quad 1A
- @ Northwestern — Quad 2
- Minnesota — Quad 3
- Maryland — Quad 3
- @ Purdue — Quad 1A
- Washington — Quad 2
- @ Nebraska — Quad 1A
- Northwestern — Quad 3
- @ Michigan State — Quad 1A
- Wisconsin — Quad 2
- Indiana — Quad 1
- @ USC — Quad 1
- @ UCLA — Quad 1A
- Michigan — Quad 1A
- Oregon — Quad 3
- @ Maryland — Quad 3
Before the Big Ten Tournament, the Illini are scheduled to play eight Quad 1 games (five of which are Quad 1A), three Quad 2 games, five Quad 3 games, and one Quad 4 game. Avoiding losses in Quad 2, 3, and 4 while picking up a few Quad 1A wins will be critical if Illinois wants to secure a top four seed on Selection Sunday.
