Good morning, Camden Chatters.
It feels like I’ve started every Bird Droppings article for the past few weeks by writing, Folks, it’s make or break time for the Orioles. This is a pivotal series. So this time I’m going to mix things up.
Folks, this is a pivotal series for the Orioles. It’s make or break time. (See, I flipped the sentences, so it’s totally different.)
But seriously, what else is there to say? When you’re a team clinging desperately to the fringes of the postseason race like the Orioles,
pretty much every series is pivotal. Every week has the potential either to vault you back into the thick of things or to wreck your chances permanently. Every individual game can be a huge momentum shift. Just think how differently we’d be looking at the Orioles right now if their series finale against the Tigers had ended in the blowout loss it was shaping up to be, instead of the miraculous comeback win it became.
And as far as pivotal series go, this weekend’s matchup against the Phillies may be the pinnacle of pivotal. The pivacle, if you will. This is the final series before Monday evening’s trade deadline and the Orioles still haven’t decided whether they’ll be buyers or sellers, and reportedly they might try to do both. But if this Phillies series results in a sweep — by either team — then it could set a clear path for the Orioles’ front office to take by Monday. It may be overdramatic to say that everything is riding on these next three games, but a heck of a lot sure is.
In the meantime, the O’s took another wild stab yesterday at trying to address their paltry catching situation, acquiring Jake Rogers from the Tigers on their way out of Detroit. Mike Elias is plenty familiar with Rogers, having drafted him with the Astros in 2013 when Elias was Houston’s scouting director. Rogers joined the Tigers as part of the Justin Verlander trade in 2017 and had remained there for nearly nine years until Detroit DFA’d him earlier this week.
In contrast to the likes of Sam Huff, Chadwick Tromp, and Yohel Pozo, Rogers does have a somewhat recent history of major league success at the plate, bashing 21 home runs as part of a league-average hitting performance in 2023. But it’s been all downhill from there, and from 2024-26, Rogers has slashed a brutal .188/.262/.338 in 182 games. So don’t expect him to be much of an offensive upgrade, if any, over the flotsam and jetsam the O’s have been running out at catcher for the past week and a half. Behind the plate, Rogers seems solid enough, and he was Tarik Skubal’s personal catcher for his first Cy Young season in 2024. But Rogers has barely caught Skubal the past two seasons, so I’m getting the sneaking suspicion that Rogers wasn’t the key to his success.
Rogers will take the roster spot of either Tromp or Pozo, and at some point soon we could end up with an all-Rogers battery of Jake and Trevor — but only if Trevor himself doesn’t get traded in the next three days. At this point, it’s hard to know what trades are coming, and whether they’ll add or subtract to the current roster. These next three games could reveal a lot about where this Orioles team is headed for the rest of 2026 and beyond.
Links
Meoli attempts the impossible task of trying to figure out what’s going on in Mike Elias’s head. It can’t be done. Elias is the master of inscrutability.
For O’s pitching prospect Caden Hunter, it was a stunning Double-A debut – Steve Melewski
In case you missed Hunter’s eye-popping Chesapeake debut, I’m pleased to inform you that the Orioles might have another legitimate pitching prospect on their hands.
Orioles should not extend Gunnar Henderson now | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com
One could make the argument that this is the best possible time for the Orioles to extend Henderson because his value is at an all-time low. But…nah, I still don’t want to. Gunnar is making me sad.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Four ex-Orioles have a July 31 birthday: catcher Mike Figga (56), left-hander Earl Stephenson (79), and the late lefty Rip Coleman (b. 1931, d. 2004) and outfielder Joe Durham (b. 1931, d. 2016). Also born on this day was former Orioles manager Billy Hitchcock (b. 1916, d. 2006).
On this date in 1987, Hall of Famer Eddie Murray hit his 300th career home run in an 8-4 Orioles win in Texas. It was Murray’s second home run of the game, a two-run blast in the ninth against Rangers reliever Dale Mohorcic.
And as you’d expect, July 31, traditionally the date of the MLB trade deadline, has been a busy day in Orioles history for wheeling and dealing. The O’s have made 22 player-for-player swaps on this date, including five just last season, when they traded away Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Andrew Kittredge, Ramón Urías, and Charlie Morton. That was quite a day.
As for other significant trades on this date:
- In 2000, the O’s finished their (mostly botched) fire sale under GM Syd Thrift by sending first baseman Will Clark to the Cardinals and fan-favorite outfielder B.J. Surhoff to the Braves for little more than a handful of magic beans. The Surhoff deal in particular was a painful one, as the veteran broke down in tears during his press conference, and all the O’s received was a 36-year-old spare outfielder, an offensively challenged catcher, and an injured pitcher.
- In 2013, the O’s acquired righty Bud Norris from the Astros for two prospects. Norris had a decent enough season in 2014 but the Birds probably regret that trade, considering that one of the prospects they gave up was Josh Hader, who later developed into (and still is) one of the best closers in baseball.
- A year later, the Orioles gave up another lefty pitching prospect, Eduardo Rodríguez, to acquire reliever Andrew Miller from the Red Sox for the stretch run. Miller did an outstanding job for the first-place Orioles and was dominant in the postseason, but again the price was steep. Rodríguez is currently in his 11th major league season and has more than 100 career wins and 23.0 WAR.
- In 2015, the O’s traded pitching prospect Zach Davies for outfielder Gerardo Parra, who at that point had an .886 OPS for the Brewers. It was a lousy trade, as Parra immediately collapsed to .625 OPS after the Orioles acquired him while Davies put together a solid nine-year career.
- In 2017, the Orioles dealt yet another pitching prospect, Tobias Myers, to the Rays for former #1 overall pick Tim Beckham. The shortstop was red hot for the Orioles after the trade, collecting a ridiculous 50 hits in August alone, but followed it up with a subpar 2018 season. Meanwhile, the Rays re-traded Myers to Cleveland for Junior Caminero, who is now one of the best young sluggers in the game. The lesson here: never trade with the Rays. They’ll win every time.
- And in 2018, the O’s made two trades to complete their fire sale in Dan Duquette’s final season. They dealt Jonathan Schoop to the Brewers for fellow second baseman Jonathan Villar, and packaged Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves for an underwhelming package that included Baltimore native Bruce Zimmermann. It’s easy to say that the Orioles gave up on Gausman too soon, considering the excellent career he’s had since, but both the Braves and the Reds later cut him loose before he finally reached his potential with the Giants in 2021.
