The Michigan Wolverines sit No. 21 in the AP Poll and 18th per SP+ heading into Big Ten play. Two wins over bottom-25 opponents and a tough loss against now-No. 11 Oklahoma on the road in some ways leaves the team with more questions than answers, though those mysteries will soon be solved with a bunch of tricky conference games up next, starting with a trip to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
After making a bowl game for the first time since 2016 (lol), Matt Rhule is trying to get his team to the next
level, and a College Football Playoff chase is not too farfetched if things go right this season. The Huskers are currently 21st per SP+ and would surely break into the AP Poll next week with the win on Saturday. Vegas and analytics think this game is a coin flip, and indeed on paper these teams look fairly close. The question becomes which highly talented quarterback will get the better of the opposition’s top-10 defense.
No. 21 Michigan (2-1, 0-0) at Nebraska (3-0, 0-0)
Date & Time: Saturday, Sep. 20, 3:30 ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
TV/Streaming: CBS
Michigan has won four straight against Nebraska, including the last two in Lincoln. The primetime 32-29 victory in 2021 featured big games from Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum, as well as a late strip by Brad Hawkins to set up the game-winning field goal with under two minutes left. The Wolverines’ trip in 2023 was far less competitive, with J.J. McCarthy accounting for three first-half touchdowns alone in a 45-7 blowout.
Offense: Too obvious to deny
What happens in Lincoln will likely dictate how the rest of the season goes. If Biff Poggi and Chip Lindsey truly intend to never let the Oklahoma game plan happen again, then Michigan has a chance to really do some damage on offense. Of course, that means Bryce Underwood being able to answer that call, but after the growing pains against the Sooners, at least the young freshman is not heading into this weekend with no prior experience in a tough environment.
On paper, the Huskers have been excellent defensively thanks to a pass defense that is allowing a ludicrous 3.0 YPA and zero touchdowns this season. However, they quality of competition has certainly been questionable, and even the Wolverines’ pass catchers are probable the toughest challenge for this defense to date. It is a gamble to have Underwood throw a ton against a quality secondary with a lot of experience, but we already saw what happens if Michigan chooses to limit him.
Still, Nebraska is allowing 4.04 YPC, largely due to Cincinnati’s 202 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. The offensive line keeps getting shaken up, but the Wolverines are going to try to impose their will running the ball, and early results suggests this should be possible. Justice Haynes is the RB1 now, and it would feel surprising if he does not pull out another 50-plus yard run at some point.
Speaking of the run game, one interesting thing to call out is that McCarthy scrambled for scores in both the 2022 and 2023 games against Nebraska; the new Wolverine signal caller showed off his mobility last week, and that could be a big factor if the secondary does in fact lock up the receivers. Relatedly, using his legs should open up passing opportunities for Underwood too, making this an essential component on Saturday.
Defense: Do-over
While both Emmett Johnson (6.27 YPC) and Kwinten Ives (7.44 YPC) have been effective carrying the ball, this game is going to revolve around Dylan Raiola. Now a sophomore, this is the former five-star’s chance to show he is worth the hype, and so far he has been allowed to let it rip: Nebraska is 20th in pass attempts per game, 12th in yards per attempt, and 5th nationally at 366.3 YPG, showing that this offense rests in the hands of Raiola. Though SP+ is not yet impressed (43th in offense), the Huskers will certainly climb up the metric should this production continue.
Michigan’s defense did not completely struggle against Oklahoma, and without the challenge of an elite dual-threat quarterback, the visitors may be able to cause the Huskers some problems. The receivers and offensive line are fine but unspectacular, and on any given play it feels like the Wolverines should feel good about their 11-on-11 matchup, especially if Jaishawn Barham can be the elite difference maker he looked like last week. Everything begins with controlling the line of scrimmage, and that is a reasonable ask this weekend.
It is tough for any secondary to hold up all game long against 40-some pass attempts, so the key on this side of the ball has to be getting pressure on Raiola. Wink Martindale is very willing to accept that task, and odds are the blitzers will wrap up better against him than John Mateer. Perhaps this is an unconventional way to state strength-on-strength; in a more traditional sense, I took a look at at Raiola vs. the Michigan pass defense, closing with a thought that could be used in the previous section as well, just with the names reversed:
If the Nebraska staff does not trust Raiola to let it rip, the Wolverines should be all over the short stuff, like the Sooners were against Underwood. To win, the Huskers will have to let their program cornerstone air it out and live with the results; the Wolverines have a good secondary, but letting Raiola fire away and risk the consequences is how this offense could tip the scales.
Omen or optimism?
If the coaching staff is true to its word and lets Underwood fully drive the offense, then Michigan should both win this game and feel very positively about the rest of this season. Through three weeks, it is clear that the difference between being decent and being in playoff contention comes down to offensive play calling — even if there are some freshman mistakes, the upside is just too great with Underwood’s arm talent and running ability.
However, another conservative game plan on the road is going to lead to problems. This frustration would be further magnified by Nebraska letting its own talented quarterback have the a chance to actually win his team the game. I think the Michigan defense should be up for the challenge, but the offense still is going to have to put up some points to win. How the visitors approach this gameplan will tell fans everything they need to know for the next eight games.
