Chiefs News 12/13: Desperation makes the Chiefs dangerous

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The Best NFL Bets for Week 15 | The Ringer

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (–5.5)

The Chargers pulled out the win against the Eagles in dramatic fashion on Monday night, but it’s hard to feel

good about how their offense looked after a clearly hampered Justin Herbert finished 12-of-26, with just 5.3 yards per attempt. Herbert’s accuracy seemed limited by his left hand injury, and while he scrambled for 66 yards to keep the offense afloat, the constant pressure on him will likely continue to affect his performance. Herbert was pressured on 63.4 percent of his dropbacks on Monday night, and he had multiple turnovers. Now, he’ll face a defense that will bring pressure as much as possible. A healthy Herbert with a nearly full-strength offensive line carved open the Chiefs defense in the first week of the season, but now they’re facing a much different challenge at a raucous Arrowhead Stadium.

It seems like the dam could break for the Chargers offense in this game. They’ve kept afloat in most games—Jacksonville in Week 12 aside—since Joe Alt got injured again. But how long can they keep sustaining the offense with turnstile offensive lineman who are allowing absurd pressure rates?

I hate to sound like a broken record in this column, but the market continues to have immense respect for the quality and pedigree of the Chiefs. The betting markets still rate the Chiefs as the best team in the AFC, even if it is highly unlikely that they’ll make the playoffs now. If you were hoping for a discount to bet Kansas City, the betting markets won’t give you one.

The path to beating the Chargers defense is committing to the run game and methodically moving the ball. I’m not sure that the Chiefs can do the first part without making this game quite slow and low scoring.

Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (–110)

Can the Chargers end the Chiefs’ season and their reign over this rivalry? | The Athletic

They are also proof of an intimate understanding for the Chargers: The Chiefs never go down quietly, and it will take everything to put them away — within a game, or within a season.

“Everybody is fighting for their playoff lives, fighting for their football lives,” Harbaugh said, “and that’s what it’s going to be.”

A desperate Chiefs team will be a dangerous Chiefs team.

As Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said this week, “They still have all the speed, they still have Travis Kelce, they still have Patrick Mahomes, the most valuable player almost year in and year out, and Andy Reid, a top play caller, one of the top play callers in the history of the game.”

The Chiefs’ offense ranks seventh in EPA per play this season, according to TruMedia.

Defensively, the Chiefs are 12th in EPA per play. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is coming off a throwback performance in Week 14 against the Houston Texans, when he racked up a season-high eight pressures.

“They’re still a very, very good football team, and we have a ton of respect for them,” Herbert said.

Tom Brady Not Worried About Chiefs’ Long-Term Outlook: ‘They’ve Got the Foundation’ | FOX Sports

On top of that, key pieces of their dynasty run have appeared to have taken a step back this season. Travis Kelce had a bad drop that led to an interception in Sunday’s loss to the Texans, while defensive tackle Chris Jones is on pace to finish with just five sacks this season. Even Mahomes hasn’t been infallible to the team’s struggles, completing just 14 of 33 passes and throwing three interceptions in the loss to Houston.

As the Chiefs might have to usher in a new era soon, though, Brady still likes what the organization has going for them moving forward.

“We’ll see how the season plays out, but they have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo, Brett Veach and Clark Hunt. They’ve got the foundation for success in Kansas City,” Brady said. “They’re going to fix things at the end of every season. Every team’s going to have to fix things at the end of every season.

“But when you have those two pieces in place, Reid and Mahomes, I think everything is a little tinkering. I don’t think anything’s a true rebuild when you have those two guys at the top.”

Five Things to Watch on Sunday | Chargers vs. Chiefs | The Mothership

2. The Chiefs’ defense has to generate consistent pressure on Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert.

The Chargers have battled numerous injuries along their offensive line this year, losing starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt for most (and in Salter’s case, all) of the season. Those injuries have led to some significant protection issues over the course of the year, and since Week 9, only Raiders’ quarterback Geno Smith has been sacked more times than Justin Herbert (23 times).

Philadelphia sacked Herbert seven times last week, pressuring him on 64.3% of his dropbacks (and often without blitzing), but to his credit, Herbert found a way to lead Los Angeles to a win despite that consistent havoc up front. Regardless, Philadelphia’s ability to create pressure clearly impacted the Chargers’ passing game.

The Chargers’ top four pass-catchers, for example, in wide receivers Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston and tight end Oronde Gadsden – all of whom have at least 500 receiving yards this year – combined to catch just seven passes for 49 yards last week.

Philadelphia’s pressure rate was the reason behind that collective lack of production, and the Chiefs will need to generate a similar result on Sunday. Fortunately, Kansas City is coming off one of its top games of the season in terms of disrupting the quarterback, pressuring Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud on 66% of his dropbacks last week.

Defensive tackle Chris Jones tallied a season-high eight pressures, defensive end George Karlaftis recorded five pressures and rookie defensive end Ashton Gillotte racked up a career-best five pressures as part of that effort, all combining to hold Houston to just 67 yards in the second half.

If the Chiefs are to win on Sunday, the defense will need to turn in a similar performance against Herbert and the Chargers’ offense.

Around the NFL

T.J. Watt has surgery for collapsed lung, out vs. Dolphins | ESPN

Steelers star pass rusher T.J. Watt had successful surgery Thursday to repair a partially collapsed lung that he sustained after a dry needling session at the team practice facility Wednesday, his brother J.J. Watt said on social media.

“He and his family are very appreciative of everyone’s kind words and well wishes,” J.J. Watt wrote.

Coach Mike Tomlin told reporters that T.J. Watt had returned home and was resting comfortably. Watt will not play in Monday night’s game against the Miami Dolphins, Tomlin said.

Tomlin also said he didn’t have any additional details about the incident that caused the lung injury or who was performing the treatment at the team facility.

In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pride

Chiefs’ Andy Reid: Hollywood Brown won’t be available against Chargers

When asked if Brown would be available for Sunday, Reid made it clear: “No.”

The other three players mentioned are all offensive linemen. Tackles Wanya Morris (knee) and Jawaan Taylor (triceps – knee) missed every practice of the week. Right guard Trey Smith (ankle) did not practice Friday after limited participation on Thursday.

The head coach gave the media an update on Smith’s progress from the injury suffered in Week 12.

“[He’s] just not ready to go,” Reid declared. “He worked through and pushed himself, but I don’t think he’s quite there.”