Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing incredible football.
The Jaguars currently sit at 10-4 and are on a five-game winning streak. Jacksonville has a legitimate shot at winning the AFC South. The Jags enter Week 16 at the top of their divisional standings.
Up next for Lawrence and Jacksonville is the best team in the AFC and the NFL in the Denver Broncos (12-2). This Sunday is a real test for both teams and has the potential to be a great game. Just don’t tell the NFL, since literally
no one outside of the Rocky Mountain region will be able to watch it.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Broncos as the -3.5-point home favorite. The total currently sits at over/under 46.5 points, with a lean towards the over at -120.
We go “behind enemy lines” to get a feel for the Jaguars heading into Week 16 with Gus Logue from Big Cat Country to preview Sunday’s game. For those interested, here are my answers to Gus’s 5 Broncos questions.
MHR: What is the prevalent feeling for Jaguars fans right now? How are they feeling about the team’s standings and where they’ll finish?
Gus: Vibes are through the roof in Duval County. Trevor Lawrence is finally looking like the guy who was compared to Andrew Luck and John Elway as a college prospect, and Liam Coen seems to have the juice to be both a playcalling whiz and top NFL head coach. I’m sure Jaguars fans have enjoyed the race for the playoff’s No 1. seed, but so long as the team doesn’t lose its first-place spot in the division, they’re sure to be thrilled with the final regular-season standings.
MHR: Why are Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville 10-4? Is this the best Lawrence has played in the NFL?
Gus: His stretch in the back half of 2022 comes close, but yes, this is the best Lawrence has played in the NFL. After his 6 total touchdown performance last week, Travis Etienne said, “I don’t think I’ve ever seen Trev like this, and we won a national championship together.” Jacksonville has ripped off five straight wins since its Week 10 collapse in Houston. In that span, Lawrence leads the league in passing touchdowns (13) and ranks in the top three in yards per attempt (8.6), average depth of throw (8.0), big-time throw rate (8.0%), passer rating (107.0), and PFF passing grade (90.0). He’s slingin’ it.
The Jaguars’ depth chart might not be quite championship caliber, but its new coaching staff is getting the most out of every player. Stars like Lawrence, Etienne, and Josh Hines-Allen are having career-best seasons, while young defenders like Devin Lloyd, Antonio Johnson, and Montaric Brown are starting to shine. Even former backups like Cole Van Lanen, Robert Hainsey, and Andrew Wingard have been instrumental as glue guys. Jacksonville is largely 10-4 because they have a coaching staff that “gets it” — look out for defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile as a 2027 head coach candidate — and a franchise quarterback, but that’d be selling the rest of the roster short.
MHR: How will the Jags get the win on Sunday? What does Jacksonville need to do to defensively and offensively against the Broncos?
Gus: On offense, Jacksonville must be efficient on the ground and explosive through the air. You don’t want to face Denver’s defense at all, but especially not on 3rd-and-longs, so it’s imperative that Jacksonville finds success on early downs. Look for Coen to use tight ends Brenton Strange and Quintin Morris as run game chess pieces, and to use motions and bunches to free up space for Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington in intermediate areas of the field. Those two, plus Strange and Etienne, should get a heavy dose of targets, assuming Pat Surtain II shadows Brian Thomas Jr.
On defense, Jacksonville must stop the run and contain underneath passes to force Bo Nix into 3rd-and-long situations. The first task should be doable, as the Jaguars boast the league’s best run defense since their Week 8 bye. Opposing offenses run against Jacksonville at a league-low -2.9% rate over expected, per SūmerSports, because they know they’ll find much more success in the passing game. The Jaguars don’t have much star power in their secondary. True WR1s have had their way against them, so expect them to shade coverages towards Courtland Sutton. I think they can cause problems for the Broncos offense as long as Sutton doesn’t go nuclear.
MHR: What is your best bet for Sunday’s game at FanDuel Sportsbook? How do you feel about the spread?
Gus: I think the spread is pretty fair. This would be an even spread on a neutral field, and while I do think the Broncos have a slightly better team, I think the Jaguars have more momentum going into this game. That’s weird to say with the Broncos being the winners of 11 straight, but the Jags have just been a different football team in the best way possible during their own winning streak. I definitely see this being a one-score game, so I’d think it makes sense to take the points with Jacksonville. They’re 3-0 on the West Coast so far this season. As for a best bet, I would suggest over 2.5 receptions for Washington.
MHR: What are your expectations and predictions for Sunday’s game?
Gus: I think this game will come down to which quarterback causes the most damage (to his opponent) down the field. Lawrence and Nix are pretty even in that regard, but the Broncos have a far better four-man pass rush and probably a better offensive line as well. Since the Broncos are better in the trenches and have home-field advantage, I’ll pick them to win a close one: 24-23. Duval faithful should be nervous about Sutton against Jacksonville’s cornerbacks on deep targets, and about Nik Bonitto against Cole Van Lanen in obvious passing situations.
